This is not an election of swing voters. Its going to be all about turning out the base and depressing Trump’s voters. Vice versa for the Republican side.
The reason why the Democrats are pretty pleased right now is that Trump is basically at his ceiling right now. Everyone either loves him or hates him. Very few voters are waiting to learn more about him. They may or may not actually understand him and his policies (that is true for both supporters and opponents) because of the way media segmentation and balkinization structures information for voters. But whatever: everyone believes they know Trump and either buy what he is selling or reject it.
That is not true for HARRIS. Americans don’t have much memory for a previous campaign. Harris is largely unknown right now. She is at her floor but there is plenty of room to increase her vote share—her ceiling is open.
She borrows Biden’s popularity (increased popularity for clearly putting country over self) and she will get a convention boost (each party does) but she has already stepped on Trump’s assassination boost and his convention bounce.
Trump’s VP pick has been a disaster (his opinion not mine) and Harris is spoiled for choice of anodyne white guys who can serve as genial attack dogs (the traditional function of the VP pick).
The significance of all the back and forth punditing/op eds/gracious advice from each party to the other right now is best understood as a form of trash talking—each party will attempt to use the media and social media/celebrity/influencers to get the other party to make a mistake, and to depress the other party’s voters. A committed MAGA voter who fears mail in voting and thinks that his vote can’t beat blue enthusiasm is a lost vote for trump.
Don’t look for Harris or the dems to conciliate or move to the center. This is a red meat to the base campaign.
I like our chances.