Missing Woman Nicola Bulley 8

[ofwarren]

Here's the new thread

My phone is playing up. I wrote a FAQ and then it crashed and I lost it all.

I'm also dealing with a child on the spectrum who is bouncing off the walls this evening so I apologise for not being around much.

@Needtopost what a complete waste of your time.

@LikeTearsInRain I agree!

To me, the water also seems the most likely scenario. I don’t know what the chances are of missing someone in a search in those conditions and with the equipment. PF obviously thinks there’s no chance of not finding someone who was in there, but what are the realistic alternatives without the dog following or being seen by someone?

From the first Police press conference, words to the effect, Nicola entered the river and No third party involvement. I cannot imagine that they would make those statements without being absolutely sure of their facts and without taking advice.

I don't know about covering anything up, but what I've been hearing and reading is that the police have moved quickly, allocated a large force of personnel working hard to follow all potential leads, are committed to pursuing this missing person case and are keeping an open mind. But the message I'm receiving is that the police made up their minds very quickly and have no other leads or evidence. For whatever reasons, at the very least, I've found the police communications poor and confusing, so goodness knows how it's come across to people who might actually be able to assist.

@Bluekerfuffle If you think about this situation with the exact same time frames but there was no water near by. You'd have less problem believing something else could have happened. Abductions can happen very quickly, with minimal fuss depending on how it's carried out. You only have to look at any unsolved mystery documentary to see that anything can happen with seemingly no one to witness.

@martinisforeveryone exactly that.

I meant to say that on the flip side of low confidence in the police, outside advice has apparently been taken and procedures reviewed by the National Crime Agency as well, which had nothing further to offer.

@martinisforeveryone yes, which would be correct as they are investigating a missing person, with no evidence of a crime. So in reality they aren't doing anything 'wrong' so to say.

Would any possible vulnerability or suicidal ideation be enough? Not saying necessarily the case re: NB.

In Libby Squires case, suicidal ideation was proven & problematic re: progression of case & earlier lines of enquiry, yet she WAS actually murdered deposited in a river.

I think the case has driven so many people to discuss as it feels like it could have been so many of us. Doing a morning school drop off and walking a dog wouldn't ever be considered high risk activities.

This case of a similar aged, blonde, white woman has had hardly any publicity by comparision
www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/cctv-police-bristol-avon-and-somerset-constabulary-inquiries-b2277717.html
I believe Denise was last seen alone, after dark and in the vicinity of a park, but has also seemingly just disappeared without trace. Her case is a mystery, but much less of one given the circumstances. Absolutely no culpability meant by that comment by the way, in case it sounded like there was an element of victim blaming. It's just an observation.

We've learnt about silent drowning, how bodies and currents behave; considered dramatic medical incidents; dog behaviour; what we think we would have done in various circumstances and yet so much seems improbable.

For both of them and other missing persons, our logical brains know that operations are in place and yet at the same time, without progress we can't help but think well they must be somewhere, why aren't they being found, or at least news of a lead that isn't 'we have no clue as to what else might have happened, so it must be this'?

Come on, going off looking up who her friend’s father-in-law is and DM’ing it to one another is out of order.

She’s come under scrutiny for having makeup on, the go-find me, speaking for the family etc. You know people will have something to say about her having media connections. You’re adding to that by discussing and alluding to who she may or may not be related to and how she’s leveraged that.

How is that helping keep Nicola in the public eye? Or helping this in any way?

@Gramps52 it's a hypothesis of theirs. It's most definitely not fact at the moment. It's the most likely scenario because it happened near water. They have nothing else to go on at this time or at least not publicly.

I’m so glad that a PP is sharing information about cold water shock and safety. It’s insane to me that people on this thread are buying personal alarms, when there’s no evidence any crime has been committed, yet deny the possibility someone could drown in a river.

@coffeesunrise I may have missed a post but I'm sure the talk about Emma White was a positive one, because she has connections and is able to help the family push this out further?

So much on this thread is done with ‘good intentions’ but that doesn’t make it right. This person didn’t choose to be in the public eye, so people looking up her family members and discussing them, bringing more attention to it in the process, is beyond the pale.

Going by what the police have actually said, it seems like they surmise she went in the water elsewhere, prob much closer to sea & areas where they said they are looking & concentrating resources.

They can’t discount she’s in the river & doesn’t mean to say, just because, not in that improbable part by bench, ‘never entered the water, at all’…

Shamelessly stolen copied from another forum - because it's excellent.

The orange/red lines are a Strava heatmap showing the routes people normally use around there. The Public Right Of Way routes are in white, the star is the bench/gate area and the white arrows are the 'exit routes'.

@martinisforeveryone I hadnt heard of that case, I'm going to read the link now.

@coffeesunrise I understand that, definitely not a choice to be in the public eye and it must be incredibly frustrating to be trying to make sense of this while your every move is watched. But I don't find the posts on here to be in the nature of tearing down the family and friends. And when they are, they're reported and removed. I think it's a good thing there is attention for Nicola. It has also pulled into light other missing people around the area. As long as people are respectful.

Except for the dog being near the river rather than near an exit, road or house.

@Bluekerfuffle I maybe be wrong. But I'm sure it's reported by a friend of Nicola that Willow was going between the bench and gate.

It was from a prepared statement, not an off the cuff comment, which has not, as yet, been retracted or revised.
There is a lack of confidence in the Police at present, but I do not believe they would speculate or spread untruths in a high profile missing person investigation, they must be in possession of information which they do not wish to disclose, I have never known the Police to put forward an hypothesis, they deal in facts and evidence.

@Bluekerfuffle the bench, gate and river are all in close proximity. So I don't know how much this can be taken for a sign.

There is so much misinformation around and I'm by no means an animal behavior expert

It was the 'anonymous friend' 3rd-hand account, and she said 'stile' rather than gate. There's a stile into another field, and a path towards the weir, at the side of the bench.