Missing Woman Nicola Bulley 5

[ofwarren]

A new thread about the disappearance of Nicola Bulley in St Michael's on Wyre, Lancashire.

@Oaktree55 We have differing opinions. In mine, SR is losing credibility rapidly throughout this investigation. She needs to present some firm evidence that Nicola entered the water at the bench - not elsewhere - to support her hypothesis quickly or public confidence will be lost.

Special programme on C5 tomorrow night at 9 o’clock.

@Hungrycaterpillarsmummy The PP mentioned the dog.

How easily could the dog have dried off in the hour and half it was tied up to the bench?

And if she has walked off on her own accord and has saw the appeals and what is going on she could be scared to ring anyone to say she's ok.

This thread has become completely mental. I am pleased that the police seem to be following the most logical explanation (whilst remaining open to other avenues). The bench she was last seen at had a warning sign of the danger!! Obviously keeping an open mind is wise, as is being done, but going off at random tangents especially when not privy to the information regarding the case is insane.

Every word of this makes complete sense!

It doesn't matter what they do really does it? They can't seem to win either way. They obviously know a lot more than we do and probably can't say and they are try their dam hardest to find her yet still facing loads of flack from everyone that thinks they know better.

I don't mind people having theories but I don't understand it when people disregard the most logical way in which she's disappeared.
It really does seem like she fell in the water and it's as simple as that.

But I was also thinking this morning about starting a thread directly talking to Nicola to say if she was reading things then to please just come forward even just to say she's alive so her family can stop the worrying.

But I just don't think she'll have abandoned her daughters willingly

It's not about your confidence it's about finding out what has happened. If the police keep important information to themselves then so be it. The family will cling to any hope they can of her being alive even if that means not accepting the obvious which is a natural reaction.

Quite a lot, maybe totally. But I don't see how that's relevant as there is a witness who could describe the state of the dog at 9.33

They are searching the sea and looking for a red van.

What concerns me is that she may be found in water, somewhere, but was she accidentally drowned or did someone put her in the river or the sea to prove the cops were right all along?

They would need to do a postmortum to see what happened .

The thing is you have absolutely no idea what frame of mind she was in.

To you not understanding waterways it seems illogical. I am not an expert but live near one and respect it and appreciate the complexities which aren't immediately apparent.

Bicoloured so say one blue and one brown. I only know one person like it so it’s something that would stand out to me.

Yes I don't. Which is why I'm not writing off any theory. It's the people who are absolutely certain she isn't in the water...well- they can't say that for certain can they.. because she's not been found yet.

I understand waterways thanks. I am not unfamiliar with rivers.

I fear that the Police are now 'extending' the search so they can shortly write this off as an unexplained case and cease the investigation completely, just feels like it is heading that way especially the way they are so vehemently closed off to any explanations other than accidental drowning.

Also, if the experts are saying she would not have reached the sea and it's borderline impossible, why are the Police taking absolutely no notice of this and just 'extending' the search to there?

FFS which experts? One media hungry guy with a book out he's trying to flog?

Having a book does not take away from all his professional experience in his field, life doesn't work that way.

It makes me rather suspicious of his motives. Especially when he says most are always found which a quick google search will show you is an absolute lie! Perhaps he thinks feedling and educating his family etc is reason enought to bend the truth in this situation which may well be true but guys come on seriously?!? You think he's being 100% honest here?? Listen to his interviews his words are very carefully chosen to not totally exclude what has likely happened here!!!

FFS which experts? One media hungry guy with a book out he's trying to flog?

Book or no book he's done this job for years including in other high profile cases such as April Jones

@Oaktree55 and others on river and tide observations. Good points.

I live next to a river too. It is about the same size and depth as the Wyre is at this village. The differences in the rise and fall within any period, even 12-18 hours, can be quite staggering after earlier heavy rain. When it rises and falls has much to do with other precedent weather conditions. Sometimes the surrounding land, from the source upstream right to the basin, will be of just the right condition that it will soak all rainwater up like a sponge. Then it might release it quickly, or it might do so over a longer period of time. I have seen ours fill up within 6 hours, but sometimes it has taken 36 hours for heavier rain upstream to raise levels.

Even a local person, will not always be in tune with their river. Those skills are being eroded. A generic "its shallow and not fast flowing" is not evidence when you might spend just 10 seconds twice a day crossing the road bridge in a car, in the depth of winter. It might have looked low and have a calm flow several mornings in a row, but on this particular morning it might have been slightly higher, deeper and faster in the morning, but by afternoon much more subdued. The police will be onto the weather and will have info resources, but I am not convinced they have the funding necessary to confirm accurate river levels and water flow in the timescale of their reporting this week.

Nor do I think Peter Faulding had all the information on the water flows in that exact spot. His work looks technically brilliant, but it is not infallible. A lot of what he has otherwise said does make sense though.

People do not completely vanish. If they die at a spot, normally some trace is available. In my country, it was always blood that gave some closure. Even then ransoms could be paid and bodies returned.

People can remove themselves and leave no trace. Likewise, an organised individual can abduct another person and leave no trace. One of these is the likely outcome here. People can disappear with no trace if it is planned right.

Is there any way she could have been taken by boat? Someone who’d watched her and knew her timings, knew when she’d be at the bench and when they had a 10 minute window period without interruption for kidnapping her? I don’t know facts about the river enough and how much is covered by cctv but could someone have been waiting there for her in a small boat, called her over perhaps asking for help (which would explain why she left her phone on the bench to move quickly) and then took her? I presume this has already been considered and discounted but was just wondering.

@Oaktree55 "This thread has become completely mental. I am pleased that the police seem to be following the most logical explanation (whilst remaining open to other avenues). The bench she was last seen at had a warning sign of the danger!! Obviously keeping an open mind is wise, as is being done, but going off at random tangents especially when not privy to the information regarding the case is insane."

NB was never seen at the bench, the last sighting of her was in the top field. The items at the bench were the phone, harness, lead, dog? I'm not even sure the dog was there, I keep seeing conflicting reports.