Labour can't win

[verdantverdure]

Unless absolutely SHEDLOADS of people who voted Conservative in 2019 vote Labour this time.

That's right, isn't it?

They will win. Unfortunately. Because the torie vote will be split between torie, labour and Reform.
Also a lot of the previous SNP voters will be voting labor.

I flipping well hope they win. My nerves can't take anymore

I’m fully expecting a Labour win though I doubt this mythical “super majority” will come about, or at least I hope it won’t - I don’t think it’s healthy to have a weak opposition who are unable to hold the Government to account.

I recall hearing some statistics on the swing needed to Labour and tried to Google them. This is what I found:

Labour need a 12.7% swing from 2019 to gain a majority. For context, Tony Blair achieved a 10.2% swing.

I think if they achieve a number of seats in Scotland the swing needed across England will be lower.

If shedloads of former tories stay at home and shedloads of people who stayed at home vote Labour, it could work.

Who is Jesus Christ in this scenario?

Why would anyone anywhere want another dose of the utter total shaming shambolic government the Conservatives imposed?
Are you mad?

Sadly , unfortunately , is this the satire thread?

Do you mean that the Tories are in forever because people will keep voting for them?
What is it about the Tories that still appeals to the majority?

You do understand the concept of swing voters don’t you op? A she’d load of former Tory voters switched to new Labour. Former Labour voters voted for the Tories when Cameron’s government came in to power.

The red wall collapsed in 2019. This happens frequently

@verdantverdure have you checked out the swings in the last five or six by elections? I recommend you do so. But it may shock you.

and yes I know by elections are not necessarily a forecast for a general election. But they are a decent sign post.

Which is quite likely to happen. Plus quite a few sheds worth of disenchanted SNP voters, don't forget.

Voting intention data will vary everywhere. There’s one that taken it’s data from daily express / mirror that shows reform has around 20% but labour still raging ahead (thank god) and you have some polls where they thankfully don’t register on the chart at all.

anyone who wants to keep this absolute embarrassment shower of shit in truly needs their head examined.

Of course labour will win 🤪 the country is on its arse

Got to be worth a try 😂😂

My understanding was that they are on track to get less votes than last time but better distributed votes which will win them the GE.

I predict Labour will win, which is not a bad thing as we desperately need change. But I also predict we'll all be back within 2 years moaning about the Labour government

Object to Rayners for her politics if you must, but why comment on her face?

Does personal abuse of a woman's appearance count as political analysis on Mumsnet?

The mental images 😅

Is crucifixion an option then?

We need them to win by enough to form a majority government. The last thing we need after the current shower is a split parliament who can’t get anything done

And why wouldn't that happen? Seeing how badly the Conservatives have messed up over the past 14 years, it would be surprising if large numbers of people didn't think it was time for a change.