Labour can't win

[verdantverdure]

Unless absolutely SHEDLOADS of people who voted Conservative in 2019 vote Labour this time.

That's right, isn't it?

I don’t think the conviction that they’re right is any stronger than that of the Tories while they were making a dog’s dinner of everything they touched. My own opinion is that unless there is serious change, anyone with a shred of morality would never vote Tory again after the ‘mad and immoral’ shitshow of the last few years of their rule. I think they’re finished, not only as a government but as a party.

Because we've had to suffer 14 years of Tory incompetence, lies and corruption and we've had enough.

You're also all forgetting anything can happen. Tory/Reform coalition could form a majority? Don't take anything for granted

People in Scotland who are fed up with the snp will generally vote labour. People in the north of England who voted labour for generations tried voting otherwise last time but have seen things get worse not better so I’m sure many will return to labour. I don’t for a minute think they’ll take the Home Counties but much of the rest of the country hates the most recent conservative govts we’ve had.

I'm not believing anything in any direction until it happens.

First Past the Post is such tricky beast.

Only if they got enough seats between them to outnumber Labour - which is looking very unlikely.

I do agree with you on that. If they cannot pull themselves together and reflect on what they have done, the party is at serious risk of never recovering.

Yes but have they done to protect women?

Saying some words and teaching everyone a new slogan doesn’t butter a lot of parsnips with me.

They’ve had 14 years and a healthy majority for the last five.

Anything they wanted to do to protect women’s right they could’ve done.

😂😂😂😂

Do you really not understand the widespread hatred of the Tory party?

Labour are certainly going to win. The only question is by how much.

My view is that the Lib Dems are going to win a significant number of seats, but nowhere near enough to become the main opposition party. I expect the Tories to be comfortably the second largest party with around 120-150 seats. That’s fewer than they won in 1997 and a lot fewer than Labour won in 2019, but it’s not a complete wipe-out either.

We’ll see.

I am actually worried to be honest, because I have seen a mixture of people saying they are voting for Reform, LibDems, Green, and Labour, (and some will be voting Conservatives they are just not admitting it!) But there seems to be no majority for any!

I am worried because there seems to be a split. As I said, no huge majority for any particular party. And I am worried it will go like......, 10% Reform, 7% Green, 23% Lib Dems, 27% Labour, 4% for 'other,' and 29% for Conservatives. So they (Cons) will win. Although with a narrow majority like that they will very likely have to be in a coalition with another party.

Some people are voting LibDems, and an equal amount of people seem to be voting Labour. I can honestly see it being a split vote with no majority, or a Conservative majority.

People should not assume Labour are going to win!

Apparently brave GC women are going to be lounging in prison after being convicted of hate crime when Labour form the next government. 🙄

This. Just this.

That's probably the least probable alternative outcome given lib dems are looking odds on to pip the tories on total numbers of seats (71 to 65 is the middle of the road estimate), but in the event of a labour minority win, it'd need cons + lib and probably 1 or 2 other parties to form a majority, which won't happen, lib dems would never power share with the tories again.

Whereas Labour may only need the greens and a few independants to form a majority.

Also, I'm expecting to see significant attempts at Voter Suppression.

This is now a major part of elections across the world: if you don't think people support what you're offering, just try to get the other parties' supporters not to vote.

The introduction of voter ID is the obvious one, but other techniques include spreading false information about how, when and where to vote. Text messages were used like this in the US.

Also, trying to dissuade people from voting, eg "they're all the same", "you can stick it to the man by not voting at all." Etc, etc. Obviously micro-targeting by Facebook or other algorithmic media very useful for this. Don't want your own voters to get the message not to vote!

There are usually last-minute drops of "revelations" ("Rishi ate my hamster", "Starmer is one of the lizardmen") intended to give people pause just long enough not to put their X on the ballot paper – no matter how untrue or irrelevant these turns out to be a week later.

It's going to be a horrible week for this sort of shit.

"Judases"?

Bliar in Dubya's pockets over a phony war that needlessly killed hundreds of UK troops

We’d have been in that war if the Tories had been in power. 🤷‍♀️

https://www.standard.co.uk/hp/front/howard-under-fire-over-iraq-7247839.html

@Justcallmebebes · Today 20:13

You're also all forgetting anything can happen. Tory/Reform coalition could form a majority? Don't take anything for granted

This! ^ Oh God, the horror! 😆

Also, what representative polls are people looking at that make it even close? The GB news online survery?

As Boris said in 2019 lots of labour aupporters lent him their votes. He decided to use those votes to party in Downing Street while flicking the Vs to to them, Sunak then sent them the bill in his tax rises. Highly unlikely the loan will be renewed.

Yes, I think the grassroots Conservative vote remains loyal. But it is not being replaced. When you look at voting intention amongst the 18-24 cohort, Conservative support is around 5-6%.

And Conservative supporters are going to have to take that on the chin. Because there's been a lot of support over the last 14 years for pensioners. But this cohort, who have really only ever known a Conservative government, clearly does not feel the Party represents them.

The credit crunch wasn’t down to the UK government. The trigger was falling US house prices and a rising number of borrowers unable to repay their loans and left in negative equity. Before the crisis, banks were issuing mortgages to people they knew would struggle to pay back the debt. As fears of these risky loans spread, global credit markets froze and several banks failed, requiring government bailouts. Entirely the fault of lenders.

@TarantinoIsAMisogynist- that is worrying re the youth voting Reform.

Labour were in power from 1997 until 2010. That is not going south quickly!

The 2010 GE was not a resounding victory for the Tories, despite the anger over the Iraq war, hence the coalition.