How confident do you feel that the Tories will lose?

[pinklite]

Do you feel confident? Going off what I see on social media, there is no way that they don't lose by a massive majority.

However I worry that this is just a small snapshot of the public and is not an accurate representation.

It really wouldn't surprise me if we don't have a Labour majority.

What does everybody else think the result will be?

Absolutely this.

All sorts of spinny shite will be thrown about in the next few weeks. I have little confidence that the election will be run fairly or without interference, based on the Brexit vote.

I dunno … 52% of people believed the Brexit lies, and the same old rubbish is being peddled out again.
My big hope is that the Reform party tempts the very right wing away from the Tories.

Im not sure they will lose. As much as people seem to hate them, they seem to distrust Labour even more. I think the people who voted Tory in 2019 want a more right wing Govt than the Tories have become. Just can't see them suddenly pivoting to Starmer.

Whoever wins won't win a majority and I think we'll have some form of coalition again.

What? No it didn't. Self ID laws were passed by the Scottush parliament but blocked by the current Tory govt. Because of this the UK does not have Self ID.

Labour are proposing to introduce something quite close to Self ID though.

If we had proportional representation, I'd have no fear at all. Since we don't, I my reservations. I was certain that Brexit would be a remain victory and that Trump surely would never get in, so I don't trust electorates not to make bad choices anymore.

@Clearinguptheclutter Last time, Labour insisted on putting up a Leader that the majority of the electorate loathed. Corbyn refused to say where he stood on Brexit and was far too 'old Labour' trying to pretend he wasn't with the result people didn't trust him.

It was inevitable he would cause a Labour defeat but Momentum were determined to have their way. So they lost

The British public is generally centrist.

Keir Starmer is dull but getting better, I think. He does at least say where he stands on most things, and he was a reasonable DPP. He just needs to avoid saying anything disastrous in the next six weeks

I'm not confident at all. Etched in my memory is a man wearing a Brexit sandwich board on the day of the EU referendum and thinking he was a loon.

I am prepared to wake up disappointed on July 5th. Obviously hoping for a celebration instead.

I don't think the Tories will win, but I wouldn't be surprised by a hung Parliament. I don't think the public see Labour as an inviting option (but nor do they see the Tories as that!)

A lot might depend on things like what happens in Scotland (if the SNP vote starts to slip away, Labour stand a better chance of a majority) and whether Galloway's party (or maybe the Greens) can make any inroads off the back of the Israel/ Palestine situation, and I'd say both of those are very hard to predict.

I mean I honestly didn't think people would be stupid / racist enough to believe the lies and vote for Brexit.

It's SO important we get out & vote. Register a postal vote if you won't be here. Encourage everyone you know folks!

www.gov.uk/how-to-vote/postal-voting

Well there's masses of threads with faux concern about tax brackets, services, the 'loony left', fake 'Labour don't know what women are' - they're clearly utterly terrified

So much Tory shilling they are bound to lose

Expect even more mad threads about the world is a dangerous place, buy 3 days of supplies and DONT TRUST LABOUR TO NOT GET IN BED WITH THE RUSSKIES

It's going to get fucking mental round here

That's so the kind of thing Boris would do.

In fact didn't David Cameron do that once?

Jesus. How the fuck anyone can vote for these cretins is beyond me!

I'm not sure at all. None Tory voters tend to be VERY vocal about politics so that dominates all chat online. Doesn't mean anything though. It's like we only really hear the bad news in the media, that doesn't mean good things aren't happening too.

Depends on how much shilling the Tory Press does between now and then really and how many shy Tories slither out from under their rocks come voting day.

I'm not a huge fan of Starmer but frankly after fourteen years of this I'm ready to vote for Mickey Mouse and it would be nice to have relative grown ups in charge.

Things are very different this time. We don’t have the added issue of Brexit. Even Boris Johnson said at the time that he realised some people had only lent their votes to the Conservatives.

Rishi is not an orator like Boris.

Labour no longer have a leader who is actively disliked. I don’t think he is a particularly enigmatic, may not even be that popular with some elements of his own party, but is more likely to appeal to the general population.

I live in a ‘true blue’ constituency, like several of the surrounding ones. We have one very long standing Tory not standing in a neighbouring constituency, and I have no idea who will be standing in my area. Our MP was Matt Hancock.

The Conservatives in this area don’t seem to think they need to campaign.

This election might just be a wake up call for them.

Going by Mumsnet and my social media during the last election, I was confident that the Tories would lose and that wasn't the case. I'm hopeful this time round but who knows until we get to July 4th 🤷‍♀️

I'm also conflicted on how to vote. I live in a Tory stronghold since 97. Tactically it would suggest voting lib dem would be a good idea because they came second during the last election but my local councillor who is fantastic is standing as an independent. He's been great at promoting local change and would love to see him win but my ultimate desire is to get the Tories out so going back and forth on it at the moment

Yeah, I agree that "shy" is the wrong word.

It's more like "ashamed" or "embarrassed".

I think the polls will narrow before election day, but Labour will still win a majority.

Labour will benefit from the right being split by reform and the SNPs unusually poor ratings.

Any other GE year and I would have been thrilled by this situation, but I dislike Labour's policies on gender and think they will do real and completely avoidable harm.*

In other areas I expect Labour to make some improvements but nothing radical as they're quite cautious on spending.

*(Because I am a tory shill apparently)

So not a Torie fan then I see .. let's be honest here, Labour does sell dreams. Their ideology to support the delusions of society today is another reason for massive disappointment. Personally I've never been too much of a big fan of how politics is run here and with regards to the US, I think the UK could do with some implementation of the Republican party manifesto on moral grounds at the very least. Anyway, we still got a while away so let's see what both parties have to say..

There are people who thought that Jeremy Corbyn had a chance of winning in 2019? Really? Aside from the antisemitism stuff (I couldn't vote for him on that basis) he had a terrible campaign where he was just promising loads of freebies, like randomly coming out with free WiFi. People were genuinely worried about his policies.

Starmer doesn't sound mad. The policy he has that seems to be worrying people is the private school VAT one, but that only affects a small minority

Oh my gosh yes, thought I'd forgotten how to read but there it was all along I just didn’t recognise it 🤔.

I did think there was a good chance, and Corbyn was a visionary. We all should have voted for him. Wifi, it's necessary to a normal life, like energy and transport. The only reason I wouldn't use it is I don't like the idea of being monitored by the government constantly

Not at all sure. I think a lot of people are counting their chickens.

This. 70% of people not liking the tories WILL NOT translate to 70% Tory MPs. Usually, votes are hovering at near 50% either way. I think the margjns will be higher, but there are still LOTS of safe Tory seats.

You can never be sure. I thought there was no way we'd leave the EU but look how that turned out. I also thought there was no way Donald Trump would get in.

It is looking good for Labour but I've learned not to be so much of an optimist or make any assumptions.

I live in a safe Tory seat. Can’t see it changing. I don’t know enough about more marginal seats or newer Tory seats - eg can Labour swing the Red Wall back?