How confident do you feel that the Tories will lose?

[pinklite]

Do you feel confident? Going off what I see on social media, there is no way that they don't lose by a massive majority.

However I worry that this is just a small snapshot of the public and is not an accurate representation.

It really wouldn't surprise me if we don't have a Labour majority.

What does everybody else think the result will be?

Their contempt for women absolutely is a reason not to vote for them and I am frankly furious about that.

Like, not fucking NOW, Labour. Just respect women's rights, how hard can it be?

I don't really care what their motivations are, I care what their policies are.

I'll still vote for policies to protect women and children even if they are Tory policies introduced for the sole purpose of sticking it to Labour.

I'd much rather Labour had those policies though.

I wont believe it til it’s happened.

Yeah, I was pretty sure leave would win. Everyone around me was blindsided.

It was obvious Labour were never going to win in 2019.

A lot of people tend to predict the result they want, rather than the one that is most likely.

Normally I would give my vote to Tories, but Rishi has really put me off lately so now I am not sure anymore. However, given recent events it may possibly be Labour. It reminds me of a similar situation in the US, people disliking Trump so much they rushed to vote for Biden and now he proved to be a complete joke and now people want Trump back who definitely is a better candidate but his intrusive thoughts let him down. Labour tends to sell dreams to what the public wants to hear but rarely fall through on it.

I'd put my money on another hung parliament. Labour being the largest party, but nobody with any overall majority.

So the Conservatives definitely being the biggest losers.

Biden hasn't proved to be a complete joke. On jobs, the economy, he's done really well. The USA also didn't suffer the same economic shock due to Ukraine that the UK did, because their government managed it better. He also gave a great account of himself at the State of the Union address. The problem he suffers from is that people tell each other nonsense as if it's true, and he needs to find a way to counter that. Mind, the polls didn't predict a Biden victory last time.

I've been a Labour voter my whole life but really don't feel I can vote for them right now after all of this...

A PART of my reasoning to sticking to Tories (but unsure on other topics).

Unfortunately not what the majority of the population thinks. He's become one of the most unpopular presidents in history. His whole office is a joke. He just had an upper hand because Trump upset people with some of the nonsense he put out but politically way ahead of Biden.

My predictions:

• The Conservative Party will lose by a landslide…
• …but, whilst decisive, there will still be a lot of Conservative MPs returned, perhaps more than people are expecting.
• The vote will be anti-Tory, rather than pro-Labour. The scale of Labour’s victory will depend somewhat on local conditions, with many voters looking at which candidate is most likely to defeat a Conservative incumbent. Thus, it might be anything from a hung parliament to a solid Labour majority, and it’s hard to predict from polling at a national level.
• Once in, Labour will be very, very disappointing…

Labour had no chance of winning with Corbyn as leader.

Absolutely no chance whatsoever.

This time around they will win easily because Starmer is effectively a Tory.

Not that it matters because there is no money for them to do anything anyway.

Labour had no chance of winning with Corbyn as leader.

I know long-time Labour voters who voted Tory for the first time in their life because of Corbyn.

Also, agree with Lunatone that the Labour Party may do a slightly better job than the Tories, but we may as well keep our expectations realistic. They're inheriting a decade-and-a-half-long Tory legacy, there's a lot of intra-party conflict / poor unity / bad feelings, and their leader is weaselly, unprincipled and uncharismatic.

Same shit, slightly cleaner toilet.

(And maybe the toilet's only cleaner because it hasn't been used in 14 years, but we won't know until we try and flush it)

I’m not sure they will get a majority. Yes people are fed up and want change but social media is not always representative of what translates in the results. I don’t think Starmer has done enough to convince a lot of people he is a true leader and some people will opt for the status qou in the face of security and economic concerns. Having said that Rishi isn’t exactly a leader either - it is Hobson’s choice.

"...some of the nonsense he put out..."

We're talking about Donald Trump here? 'Upsetting people with his 'nonsense'? And you're dragging that entirely plausible POV into this discussion to justify voting Tory? Of course you are. That'll help Tory HQ no end. Making ludicrous comparisons with Trump will really help get voters off the fence, eh?

How about pointing out that MTG is also really rather reasonable and means no harm whatsoever?

It's going to be a long few weeks to the election on MN, isn't it?

But he'll still win if he deliberately shags a pig or is sober. It's a rite of passage for our prime ministers!

I haven't looked at social media recently but I'm really happy to hear this

Same. I am quietly hopeful but by no means certain.

I think Scotland will go red and tip it rather convincingly for Labour Party. Personally I'd rather stick to the Tories, they aren't a great choice but I find Keir Starmer utterly dreadful and would never want him as PM. Lib Dems are over, too tainted by the post office scandal and Reform UK laughable. I'm hoping the Geeens do better than expected.

This is my concern.

I went to bed the night of the referendum thinking that things looked positive for Remain but woke up late the next morning to find we were leaving the EU & Cameron was resigning...

You can never be sure, but I can’t see how any sane person can vote for them at this point. They have been SO diabolical beyond belief, and openly contemptuous, not even thinly veiled! They very well may turn out to be the worst government I will ever have the misfortune to live through (I sure as hell hope so!). Anyone who votes for them now needs a bloody lobotomy, and that’s not to say they have to vote Labour.

We had Jeremy Corbyn to thank for that one.

They'll lose because they have proven they aren't good at delivering traditional Tory values.

People vote Tory because...

They are tougher on crime (with police cuts that's not true)

Tougher on immigration (still high levels of immigration)

Supporter of small business (only huge companies, small businesses got screwed over during Covid)

Better at handling the economy (well, just look at it)

I'll be voting labour and hope the tories are out for a long time to come.

Labour were some way behind in the polls in 2019. It is not comparable at all.

Corbyn vs Johnson.

Read what John Curtice is saying.

You can never take any election result as given, but 2019 is not 2024, for lots of reasons. Brexit is not an election issue this time, for example.

The Tories have been polling between 15 and 20 points below Labour for about two years now, possibly longer. That's across all polls, not just one.

This will probably narrow as we get closer to election day, but I can't see them doing enough in the next six weeks to throw off the years of dissatisfaction, especially with Rishi at the helm.

Mumsnet likes to focus on "women's rights" but it's very much an echo chamber. A recent poll by More In Common showed that only 1% of voters believe the trans issue to be a priority. I'm sure someone will come along in a minute and say I'm wrong about this, but you really do live in a bubble.