How confident do you feel that the Tories will lose?

[pinklite]

Do you feel confident? Going off what I see on social media, there is no way that they don't lose by a massive majority.

However I worry that this is just a small snapshot of the public and is not an accurate representation.

It really wouldn't surprise me if we don't have a Labour majority.

What does everybody else think the result will be?

I'm inclined to think many will lend their votes to others this time, and return to voting Tory in five years.

It's a common theme in elections where the incubant has been in power for 10-15 years.

🤖

About 60/40 at the moment in favour of Labour. I still remember 1992 and I don't take anything for granted these days.

If Labour does get elected, it will be be because the Tories lost, rather than because Labour won. I want to be inspired by them but I'm really not at the moment.

I will hold my nose and vote for them to get our dreadful Tory MP out, but I wish Labour would give people something a bit more positive to vote for. I want to be celebrating their victory on 5th July and not simply breathing a sigh of relief that the Tories are out.

At the moment, the only thing I'm really looking forward to at the moment is watching some big Tory names have their Portillo moments. That's not exactly a vision for the future.

In recent years bookies have done better than pollsters for predicting election results. Have a look.

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/most-seats

After the brexit referendum I’ll never feel confident about any vote again.

this

People lie about it because a certain section of left winger support is extremely abusive.

You hardly ever see the same behaviour when the roles are reversed.

It also depends where you live. I happen to live in one of the safest Conservative seats. The only political discussion you ever hear around here focus on how much people loathe Labour. Nobody would ever openly admit to voting Labour I guess because people like to fit in although the results show that a few do, maybe 10%.

I think a wide spread of votes will see no party with a huge majority.

I don't think it'll be a landslide for labour at all.

Agree we need change, but unless Labour can come up with a fully costed manifesto and detail exactly HOW they are going to pay for what they promise, I fear we are in for a hung parliament. Other than VAT on private schools, I don’t know how they are planning to fund reform?
Call me a cynic but if labour get in, in 4 or 8 years time I think there will be a similar thread on here, begging for change!

I don’t understand why people were so confident of a Remain win when polling showed the result as being on a relative knife-edge.

And anyone who was sure of a Labour win in 2019 likely didn’t have an interest in politics.

I won’t be surprised if they win. If Tory voters will vote for BJ they’ll vote for anyone.

More like a bacon butt-y 😁

Agree with this^

Less confident than I would like to be

I have never voted against the majority. It could happen but I’m so used to it I will be quite surprised.

95%, but I don't think it will be the unprecedented Landslide margin some polls are predicting.

Personally hoping it's actually bigger, because that would rid us of some of the worst of the Tory party, but I can't see it and I think a fair few will cling on.

72 Tory MPs have said they are standing down rather than campaigning for re-election so they think they're going to lose. 75 stood down in 1997 for comparison.

Bookmakers are currently offering odds of 2/17 on Labour winning & 12/1 on a Conservative win. That suggests that people who are actually prepared to put their money where their mouth is believe the current probability of a Labour win is 88% which leaves the Tories with a 12% probability of winning. Sounds about right.

We know from previous elections that polls tend to tighten during campaigns as ‘don’t knows’ make their minds up. We also know that some people who intend to vote Conservative won’t admit this when asked and that polls tend to underestimate Tory support because so many of their voters are elderly & more difficult for pollsters to contact.

But Labour’s lead is big & has been stable for months so unless they fuck up spectacularly even they will struggle to lose from here. Never underestimate the sheer ruthlessness of the Tory party, though.

What a shame this tedious shit is being trotted out as an arguement not to vote Labour.

My DH is convinced they are out, but I’m not so sure.

In-laws live in a long standing blue area, I honestly can’t see that changing. We also live in a blue area and although there is a lot of talk of them being shit, I think there are too many around the wider area who just wouldn’t vote labour.

Where I grew up is labour through and through, but so much faith has been lost in them. Even my staunch red family have had a few wobbles.

i think it’s anyone’s game really. There are people who will vote as they always have because that’s what they do and refuse to change, or just can’t bring the self’s to. And there will be people who are totally disillusioned with their usual party they will vote differently to the past. But who knows what the actual outcome will be.

i always find polls ridiculous as they only ever cover small samples of people.

Whichever party gets in, the policies now seem virtually the same. So sadly , even though it looks like a Labour victory, I feel that the Conservatives will have won in that Labour has moved so far to the right - they are almost a second Tory party. And Keir Starmer seems to go back on his word a lot so I don’t really trust him to deliver even a watered down Labour agenda. I hope I am wrong.

i always find polls ridiculous as they only ever cover small samples of people.

They are, however, reasonably accurate.

I'm not sure 'shy' is the word; more like a lot of people who would never admit to voting Tory for fear of getting their head ripped off. Cue overwhelming shock when they win. Exactly what happened with Brexit. Leave voters largely kept quiet.

For this GE, I know several people who refuse to vote Tory - but also do NOT want a Labour govt or Sir Kier 'I don't know what a woman is' Starmer being our new PM.
I do believe, for a lot of people, it will be a case of 'better the devil you know'.

This, I think there are a lot of people who will vote Tory but just keeping it quiet.

I think unless Labour have got something really juicy to win people around the conservatives will be back in.

@obsessedwithfreshbread
Agree, the generally hard working, aspirational middle get shafted either way with a Conservative or a Labour government.

Pretty sure labour will win

But most interested in seeing what happens in Scotland. Labour have lost to SNP for so long, will be fascinating to see what happens this time round