How confident do you feel that the Tories will lose?

[pinklite]

Do you feel confident? Going off what I see on social media, there is no way that they don't lose by a massive majority.

However I worry that this is just a small snapshot of the public and is not an accurate representation.

It really wouldn't surprise me if we don't have a Labour majority.

What does everybody else think the result will be?

Fat chance of that happening. She’s got an enormous majority.

The bookies will change the odds as this moves forward, look at them again in 5 weeks. None of them are reliable 5 weeks away, they don’t have a magic crystal ball. They simply go on the pollls. I can absolutely guarantee the odds will be different in a month.

its going to be a long few weeks. And I personally suspect much can happen in that time. The fact the bookies predict something now, doesn’t mean they will do so this time next month. Far from it

yes there is an outlier poll but the fact remains the support is evolving, and we’ve a long way to go.

I know. The idea that Liz Truss will keep her seat after the damage she has done to the UK and now on the US conspiracy nut job circuit is ludicrous.

I agree with Jess Phillips - I am sorry she's not standing again but I don't blame her.

Personally I feel the tories should deselect truss.

The only consolation is that she’ll loathe being in opposition. Every time she has to enter the chamber and sit on the opposition benches will be torture for her.

@frankentall Jess Phillips is still standing. She is listed as the PPC for Birmingham Yardley.

Oh, brilliant, I thought I'd read she was standing down somewhere - doh!

Apparently a local Tory is going to stand as an independent against Truss.

Yes, I’d forgotten that. Highly respected pillar of the community apparently. It would be the ultimate Portillo moment if he won.

She’s not much liked by the Turnip Taliban so it’s not a surprise. Though the reason is pretty old school apparently, and it’s not politics. It’s about the only thing I have sympathy with her on.

It's very odd that despite the immense damage that Liz Truss did to the economy that people still vote for her. No matter how incompetent some MPs are they have people willing to back them. No wonder standards don't rise!

On this we agree.

Only a fool would bet on Labour maintaining this 20pt lead, it could go either way.

Personally i think it will increase, people have stopped listening to the Tories, 41% of all voters asked, said Sunak has accomplished nothing at all.

Going to be hard to pull back from that & i think Reform will do very well.

For my fellow political nerds who are Jess Phillips fans and can't take yet another podcast of two blokes chatting to each other I recommend giving the Electoral Dysfunction podcast a go. Jess Phillips, Ruth Davidson and Beth Rigby.

One of the very few certainties in politics, is that I will not ever vote for a situation where Liz Truss is allowed a finger on a button that doesn't say break glass in case of fire. And I'd prefer a second opinion on that too.

Labour have split as predicted today. Rayner and Abbott leading the hard left mutiny.

And the latest polls:

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/labour-lead-slashed-to-just-12-points/

Well most of the press is pro Tory. You need a better bullshit radar.

Labour have been shit today though and it is making me reconsider. They are just booting people out willy nilly. Much loved local MPs who are likely to keep their seat, it's madness.

Nope, this is the latest poll.... Rayner Hard Left? you need to get out more!

https://news.sky.com/story/labour-extends-lead-over-tories-in-exclusive-poll-for-sky-news-13144620

Hello @Polishedshoesalways, you've returned! I'm still curious what you think have been the Tories main achievements over the last 14 years that gives you such faith in their future success for the next 5 years.

Yes Rayner and her lover have been militant unionists like forever! Where have you been? Living under a rock. She is one of Jezzas crew! Along with Abbott. Please try and keep up if you can…

As things stand and the left wing of the labour party is being outed - I feel there is a good chance the Tories will still not get a majority and I'm about 7 % certain they will come second.

However, with the ongoing circus in the Labour party, unable to make a simple decision re Daine Abbott, people are asking themselves, what will happen if there was a real crisis

Precisely. Would you want Starmer and hot headed Rayner in charge of something genuinely terrifying, when they can’t even agree on a single candidate. Our national security will be compromised and I am not sure ANYONE on the opposition benches has the bandwidth to even understand the complexity of what we are facing now.

Some of us actually, you know, work for a living 🙄 but I am glad you missed me!

@Polishedshoesalways you have returned to comment though.

As you ask I think the conservatives have done a good job creating millions of jobs, saving the economy from annihilation and containing the fall out of the pandemic. They have been very generous towards Ukrainian, afghans and those from Hong Kong in their moment of need.

I happen to think the EU referendum was long overdue even if you don’t agree with the result, we were the only country bold enough to give people the choice, as a result we have managed to keep hideous far right militants - like the BNP far away unlike other EU countries.

They have done their best under extremely trying circumstances - wars, pandemics and COL crisis x 10 because of the Russian invasion and honestly I definitely do not feel Starmer would have coped at all!