How confident do you feel that the Tories will lose?

[pinklite]

Do you feel confident? Going off what I see on social media, there is no way that they don't lose by a massive majority.

However I worry that this is just a small snapshot of the public and is not an accurate representation.

It really wouldn't surprise me if we don't have a Labour majority.

What does everybody else think the result will be?

I’m in a labour stronghold and honestly it’s not been the best for many people who are extremely vulnerable.

I have concerns about the Labour statement that I read yesterday of “we will under promise in our manifesto and then over deliver”… how can you vote for them if you don’t know their thinking up front?

haven’t voted either labour or conservative in the last election and won’t be this time, and quite safely too as we may get a change to greens / Lib Dem.

I didn’t ever think Labour would win under Corbyn. So, I was right.

But, I got the Brexit vote wrong.

The advantage Labour might have is that no other party are willing to form a coalition with the Tories, but a couple are ok with Labour.

I don’t think it will be any sort of landslide.😗

Pollsters very rarely rip heads off when they give the wrong answer. Neither do the ballot papers at by-elections and local elections.

What's been keeping Tories quiet for them? And if they were too frit to vote Tory in by-elections or local elections, will they buck up a bit for the General?

I think the polls will narrow but they’ll still win easily.

I live in a safe tory seat so that won’t change

i think labour will win but i don’t think it will be the landslide some people are hoping for

I put my faith in Prof Sir John Curtice, so very confident!

100%. But then I was 100% the Brexit vote would go the other way so my hopeless optimism counts for absolutely zilch 😂

Personally I can see a Hung Parliament....

This!

I'd like it if all the posts were moved to the politics board and AIBU can stick to what it's for - parking, cats and MILs.

The Labour will do x,y,z posts are only ever pretend AIBUs anyway.

I don't mind if it's not a landslide or even if it's a coalition as long as these selfish, corrupt bastards are out.

I have voted Tory in the past, but there's nothing that could make me vote for them after they partied while simultaneously not allowing parents to visit their dying children in hospital. Fuck them.

@RufustheFactualReindeer I live in a safe tory seat so that won’t change

We've had a boundary change, so part of what was a safe Labour seat has now been put in next to a safe Tory seat.

Should be interesting....

MN usually has loud and confident dominant posting voices at election time and it's been an an absolute consistent bellwether of the side that loses.

Of course the Tories are going to lose, so I don't think that's the question.

The actual, remaining question is "by how much?"

Does anyone really think it won't be a landslide? Especially when Labour need fewer votes for bigger majority given constituency boundaries?

I'm still in shock about Brexit. The lack of critical thinking skills in the voting public is always going to be there. But I honestly can't see how the Tories can win again...

Pretty certain.

Mainly due to the Reform party, they’re clearly gaining voters (although no where near enough to gain more than a handful of MPs) and most of those votes are coming from former Tory voters. Not all, but definitely most.

Labour has the middle ground now which is where elections are won or lost.

As others have said Donald Trump and the Brexit vote have shown that anything can happen. Even if Labour win I don't think it will be landslide some are predicting.

I'm a Conservative voter and I'm 100% confident they will lose.

I'm going to vote reform as I'm so fed up with the usual binary choice. They won't get seats but it's one way of expressing a desire for change.

@Jumpingthruhoops
I'm not sure 'shy' is the word; more like a lot of people who would never admit to voting Tory for fear of getting their head ripped off. Cue overwhelming shock when they win. Exactly what happened with Brexit. Leave voters largely kept quiet

Cannot compare Brexit result with this GE, Brexit polling was always tight, leading into the vote, well within the margin of error.
An average 20% poll lead, over time, will be extremely difficult to over turn, sure it will narrow but i think many Tories will stay at home or vote Reform.

People were also voting on what they knew (or thought they did) i.e the EU was to blame for the UKs problems.

People know what the Tories are like, they see it everyday.... roads, health, education, council & public services.

Sunak/Tories cannot even get his Smoking ban and Renters Rights bill's through, has had 5 years to do these, such is the division in the Conservatives.

And, the SNP vote in Scotland has collapsed.

Even the Telegraph, who are supporting the Conservatives, are running stories about which ‘big beast’ conservatives are looking like they might lose their seats. That doesn’t happen to a winning party.

I hope it's not a landslide or a coalition.

If Labour win with a modest majority they won't be able to go too power crazy on their own, or be forced to do stupid things by Lib Dem loonies.

I want to say very, I haven't spoken to anyone irl who is happy with how things are and how they have been. I hope people remember how they've behaved and everything that has happened under them rather than have short memories.

Never thought Trump or Brexit would happen either though and they did... Remaining cautious but hoping that the tories are not just voted out but absolutely decimated seat wise.

I don't think a landslide for any party is a good thing for democracy. It means the ruling party doesn't have to listen to opposing views or make any effort to seek consensus.

I don't think they will lose.

It's the pissing in the swimming pool thread all over again.

On Betfair a Labour majority is currently running at 1.16 (4/25) to back and 1.18 (2/11) to lay. I don't back things at those odds but there's no way I'd lay at them either. I think the back odds are better value though, I'd put it at 1.10 or less. Just no point betting money at those odds.

Very confident. As others have pointed out, even if Labour fall short of a majority, nobody will coalition with the Tories.

I think hung parliament or Conservative win but no majority, so no mandate and years of shite.

The world is on a war footing and that is what might keep the Conservatives in. No-one wants a Labour government in a conflict.

I don’t want to vote Conservative again as I am livid with the shitshow they have caused but they are still preferable to Labour.