Brexit mega thread part 15a - looking forwards

[Talkinpeace]

Just rebooting the most recent thread

At the moment the UKs issues are rather over shadowed by events elsewhere
but maybe that is a good thing.

The German election on Sunday is worth watching
Right wing European politicians pulling out of CPAC speeches because they realise its not a good look
Farage floundering to stay relevant

and the possibility of the return of free movement for our kids if not us

Relations between mainland Europe and the UK remain a worthy topic for discussion

Thanks for the new thread

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/britain-to-offer-eu-youth-mobility-scheme-fh0dkh95w

Starmer is floundering all over the place. His manifesto acknowledged the previous conservative government allowed too many people into the UK. Last year almost a million appeared. Now he wants to open the doors again!

Focusing on the 18-30 age range is just a ploy to fool them into thinking that the UK should rejoin the EU and they indoctrinate their offspring.

However, a warning to all of the UK young generation. You are the ideal conscription age. Are you prepared to fight for the EU if US pulls their support for Ukraine?

If the EU wants the Ukraine to be a member in the future, all conscription should come from the EU and nowhere else. Likewise, the cost to rebuild the Ukraine should be paid solely by the EU.

Trump has the correct approach. He is willing to provide support if he is paid.

Brexiteers laughed at David Cameron when he pointed out that leaving the EU increases the risks of World War 3

However, a warning to Putin appeasers like Global.

https://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2025/02/how-can-brexit-britain-navigate-trumps.html?m=1

AFD 10% behind CDU in the German election
their best ever result but not enough to get anywhere near power.
Nice one Elon

German electoral map - invisible wall VERY visible
https://x.com/bbcnickrobinson/status/1893704023452131776

I saw a post earlier today pointing out that it is also related to levels of education.

I'll see if I can find it again

https://bsky.app/profile/gylesnamopaleen.bsky.social/post/3lh7vap3tzc2g

On 23rd Feb, Germans go to vote in a General election.

Recent EU election results suggests there's still a strong east/west cultural, economic & political divide.

And this map of same illustrates, brilliantly, how education is the kryptonite to populism (blue denotes support for AfD) 🧵

@DuncinToffee
The key thing driving East Germany
and the "red wall" collapse in the UK
[cannot tag the usual gang as they are not on this thread yet]
is not education - its Demographics

all the young people and thus dynamic jobs have moved out of the Ossie areas
leaving them older and poorer
and thus more angry and nostalgic

@prettybird @mathanxiety @peregrina @spandauer @drblackbird @hannibalheyes @frankiestein403 @kendodd @IItisymoi @jason118 @serendipityjane @mathanxiety

Shamelessly tagging y'all
so that we can watch the German results come in
and the reaction to Zelensky saying he'd stand down for NATO membership
and the market reaction to the Trumpsanity over the weekend

International relations between the UK and Europe just got interesting again

Following

I think that Zelenskyy offering to step down if that helps progress towards a lasting peace - which, because of Russia's (and now the US' ) untrustworthiness, would need NATO membership or proper guarantees of support, shows an integrity that both Trump and Putin can't comprehend.

If Musk, Bannon and Trump's interference and Nazi emulation helped blunt the rise of the AfD, then that is one glimmer of positivity.

Like Farage's Reform Ltd, they are good at disrupting. Not so good at realistic solutions.

A thread 15 already got started. why did this one get started?

Yes, it all contributes. Integration takes time

Not sure which thread to put this on

Merz just said on German TV that the primary priority of his government will be to ensure that Europe can achieve full strategic independence from the United States in the defence against Russia.

Merz was once a die hard Atlanicist. Now, after Trump he is a Gaullist. Extraordinary.

https://bsky.app/profile/aphclarkson.bsky.social/post/3liumojcagk2x

@DuncinToffee
Integration never happened
depopulation happened

same as in Romania and Hungary and rural Poland

pmk

I'm happy to contribute to a thread where those that contribute to do so with their own thoughts and not AI generated rubbish (as far as I can make out from the responses as I don't read the screeds that apparently never actually add anything original or even answer questions addressed to him)

all the young people and thus dynamic jobs have moved out of the Ossie areas
leaving them older and poorer and thus more angry and nostalgic

Yes, I was going to make a similar comment. My understanding of E Germany was that they had been quite well educated, so it couldn't be just that. So very comparable to the Red Wall in the UK.

I wonder now about the Brexiters insistence that it's not the EEC/EU which has kept the peace but NATO. Not looking quite so positive now, is it?

Truthfully though; it's very hard to say why something e.g. absence of war in Europe, didn't happen.

I think there really are parch marks in the demographic makeup of nations. Faint traces of the history that created the present. Even if you build, pull down and build again, somehow the environment retains a weird - almost homeopathic - memory of what has passed.

Even going around England in the 21st century, there are odd hints as to the industrial revolution, the civil war (especially !) and before that the Reformation. Indeed I can't help but feel some places still bear the strata of the Wars of the Roses. Heck, even the Roman landscape of Britain is vaguely still visible.

How much this matters is up for debate. A difference that makes no difference is no difference. But I have yet to be unconvinced there is something in it.

(No one us surprised when people notice the clear divisions in the US that the civil war caused are still extant).

Returning to Germany (which didn't really exist until relatively recently) if what I am suggesting is universal, then there is no reason why it wouldn't apply there.

Russia too.

Faint traces of the history that created the present. Even if you build, pull down and build again, somehow the environment retains a weird - almost homeopathic - memory of what has passed.

Indeed so. Look at the number of towns in England ending with "by" and you have a good map of where the Danes were. Similarly look towards language and different expressions in different parts of the country - that's maybe a big vaguer. Think of the huge influence of Norman French on the English language.

I also have noted from recent history how countries may retain the same name but are not the same. Poland (and Ukraine?) got pushed westward after WW2. Russian, after the collapse of the USSR, does not have quite the same boundaries as in Peter the Great's day.

Even in the UK, various Local Government reforms have caused counties to come and go but even with the same names, boundaries of them have shifted.

Certain friends live in an area that is officially Surrey
but if I want a letter to arrive promptly I always write "Mddx" on the envelope

History echoes forwards constantly
not to learn from it is dumb
"Move fast and break things" is all well and good but the people picking up the pieces and mending the damage will look back past the break to decide their repairs

Hey Peregrina, I think you asked something about this right at the tail end of thread 14 but it hit 1000 replies before I'd been able to respond.

On the contrary, I think that NATO nations are going to be spending more on defence is a positive, and much more likely to keep NATO territories peaceful than not.

That Europe's defence going to become more fully the responsibility of European members of NATO, again a positive, it really should have been that way for the last 30 years. Finally the American President has said "enough" to American taxpayers money paying for European people's defence when European citizens choose governments that would not fund it sufficiently.

I suspect there will be an acceleration toward some EU controlled military structures. Starmer will probably find some way to tie Britain into such efforts, unfortunately.