Brexit mega thread part 15a - looking forwards

[Talkinpeace]

Just rebooting the most recent thread

At the moment the UKs issues are rather over shadowed by events elsewhere
but maybe that is a good thing.

The German election on Sunday is worth watching
Right wing European politicians pulling out of CPAC speeches because they realise its not a good look
Farage floundering to stay relevant

and the possibility of the return of free movement for our kids if not us

Relations between mainland Europe and the UK remain a worthy topic for discussion

Not too much there I disagree with, apart from the needless dig at the end.

The real challenge will be to ensure that additional defence spend goes into the UK on UK projects and jobs. Because Trumps big "idea" is that all of NATO will buy from the US. Which is where I may diverge on agreement. British money for British jobs.

On the contrary, I think that NATO nations are going to be spending more on defence is a positive, and much more likely to keep NATO territories peaceful than not.

Exactly - NATO without the major N Atlantic player. More like ETO, with Canada flying the flag for that continent.

But the Brexiters most emphatically didn't want an EU army. NATO without the US largely looks like an EU army plus.

We already know that Brexiteers didn't know what they wanted. That's why they never got the "Brexit" they wanted.

Personally I see Starmer as more of a Neville Chamberlain, who will try to appease Trump, and destroy what reputation he has in the process.

I generally agree with all of that tbh, certainly the need for Britain to be working to support British defence sector employers and their workers and to have meaningful capacity in those sectors, either independently or (for bigger things) in partnership with other nations. Certainly preferable to simply "buying American" in the medium/long term.

I do wonder how long it takes to deliver that though, more capability needs to be built quickly so I suspect some American equipment might well be bought.

Careful. We could be singing Kumbaya by tea time .... 😄

@Peregrina

But the Brexiters most emphatically didn't want an EU army

The EU is welcome to have an EU army as long as the UK doesn’t have to contribute towards the cost.

@SerendipityJane

We already know that Brexiteers didn't know what they wanted. That's why they never got the "Brexit" they wanted.

The question posed to MPs on 29 March 2017 was the same as that presented to the electorate on 23 June 2016. Shall the UK remain in the EU.

498 MPs voted leave compared to 113 who voted remain.

As pointed out by both Farage and Sunak, continued control by the ECHR is a great hindrance to achieving the immigration targets.

Out of control immigration is not just a UK issue as evidenced by the rise of far right in Austria and Germany.

Most recently look at the trouble in Dublin, Ireland, due to strain placed on healthcare and housing. ie the reasons given by Switzerland as to why they will never be a full member of the EU.

It was nice while it lasted, sigh.

Not surprising now that an ex UKIP/Brexit Party/Reform MEP has appeared in court accused of accepting bribes to make statements in the European Parliament that would benefit Russia.

We can see where certain loyalties lie

@DuncinToffee

You can dig up dirt on any party at any time to suit your own agenda, but it cannot be extrapolated to reflect the entire party. Particularly if they are an ex member.

That someone has been accused, does not mean they are guilty.

If you believe polls, Reform is at the top of the list.

If you believe polls, Reform is at the top of the list.
As a member of the YouGov panel I have learned to utterly ignore voting intention polls
and the UK does not have PR so national intentions are utterly irrelevant

@Talkinpeace

As a member of the YouGov panel I have learned to utterly ignore voting intention polls
and the UK does not have PR so national intentions are utterly irrelevant

Good that someone else is not convinced that small samples of a few thousand can be extrapolated to forecast how 10s of millions will vote. However, when your fellow remain supporters quote polls that suggest the majority of people have changed their minds regards Brexit, you have made no such comment. Why is that?

Likewise, the FPTP system casts even more doubt about the legitimacy of polls. The 2024 general election was one of the most divided when comparing actual votes to seats won.

Labour went from 200+ to 400+ seats even though they got less votes than in 2019

LibDems went from 12 to 70 seats , but again they got less votes than in 2019.

Reform won 5 seats even through they received 500,000 more votes than the LibDems.

So, it’s a truly topsy turvy system, but I don’t see it ever changing.

Good that someone else is not convinced that small samples of a few thousand can be extrapolated to forecast how 10s of millions will vote.
No sweetie,
statistical sampling methods are absolutely sound
but the UK does not have national PR

Its why the Exit Poll sampling works brilliantly
but measuring pears by counting llamas does not work

My issue with YouGov are the surveys they (are paid to) run which are clearly engineered to deliver a predefined result.

I've worked with YouGov (who are eye wateringly expensive). When I pointed these out, they said that not all clients want the same thing, but the customer is always right 😀

@Talkinpeace

No sweetie, statistical sampling methods are absolutely sound, but the UK does not have national PR.

They were consistently wrong from 2013 to 2016. Polls forecast a remain victory in the referendum. Not that it mattered as it was the 498 MPs who voted leave in March 2017 that triggered Brexit.

@SerendipityJane

When I pointed these out, they said that not all clients want the same thing, but the customer is always right

Exactly, if the polls don’t show what the paying customer wants, the fees may not be paid. The UK treasury report produced before the referendum was commissioned by the UK government who were for remain. The doom and gloom that was meant to happen by Q3 of 2018 never happened.

So, if polls and expert reports can’t be trusted on the basis they are pre determined to suit the paying customers, what can voters rely on?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgq91pj41vxo

New rules to prevent Northern Ireland being used as a back door to smuggle international food products into Great Britain have come into effect.

From Tuesday, food and animal feed products need to be processed or owned in Northern Ireland by a Northern Ireland registered business to maintain unfettered access.

A UK government spokesperson said qualifying goods will continue to "benefit from unfettered access" to the rest of the UK market and will not face border controls.

@DuncinToffee

And the point is?

What's the point of sharing information?

Ask AI?

None, if you don’t specify the relevance.

Maybe real people can see the relevance themselves...

At definitely a knob. The choice of maybe as opposed to definitely demonstrate ms doubt.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-uk-youth-visa-starmer-europe-reform-b2704475.html

Two out of three voters want Sir Keir Starmer to agree an “Australian-style” youth mobility scheme with the European Union as part of his post-Brexit reset of relations with the bloc, a new poll has found.

The survey of almost 15,000 people, by YouGov for campaign group Best for Britain, shows overwhelming public support for the idea with a majority of voters in every constituency across the UK supportive of the proposal.
It found that two-thirds (66 per cent) back the scheme, compared to just one in five (18 per cent) who are opposed.

In Nigel Farage’s Clacton constituency, which voted overwhelmingly in favour of leaving the EU in 2016, more than twice as many people were in favour (57 per cent) than against (25 per cent) the idea of a mobility scheme.

@DuncinToffee

You may want to read Serendipity comments regards YouGov. The view was that such polls are pre-determined by what those who paid for the poll want hear. The paying customer was always right was the punchline.

If the polls are as accurate as you seem to believe, remember that Reform are top of the polls.

The Youth Mobility scheme is a return to free movement in disguise and the reason the previous government knocked it back.

https://thepienews.com/uk-has-no-plans-for-eu-youth-mobility-scheme-despite-reports/

Students from anywhere in the World can study in the UK without such schemes and are most welcome as they pay higher tuition fees than UK nationals.

If Starmer is brave enough to bring back free movement for the young it will do his ratings and general popularity a world of good
sadly he does not seem to be brave
we shall see tomorrow when he meets the orange one

More Kremlin propaganda from Trump

Trump: "The European Union was formed in order to screw the United States, that's the purpose of it. And they've done a good job of it. But now I'm president."