Brexit mega thread part 15a - looking forwards

[Talkinpeace]

Just rebooting the most recent thread

At the moment the UKs issues are rather over shadowed by events elsewhere
but maybe that is a good thing.

The German election on Sunday is worth watching
Right wing European politicians pulling out of CPAC speeches because they realise its not a good look
Farage floundering to stay relevant

and the possibility of the return of free movement for our kids if not us

Relations between mainland Europe and the UK remain a worthy topic for discussion

Son reckons I should try to short sell the market tomorrow before Trump wakes up.
I think Trump does not understand what reciprocal tariffs are
and Starmer has managed to make Jenrick look sane
roll on April 2nd

Reform are still miles ahead of the LibDems and almost equal with Conservatives and Labour, if polls are to be believed.

And because of the extra paper work fewer companies are prepared to be bothered with it.

Our goods trade with the EU and ROW is less by value and volume since before we left the EU.

Reform are still miles ahead of the LibDems and almost equal with Conservatives and Labour, if polls are to be believed.

National trends are nothing to go on. I doubt whether that statistic would hold in the south east of England.

@hoopyvest

Our goods trade with the EU and ROW is less by value and volume since before we left the EU.

More unsubstantiated nonsense.

As per ONS December 2024, figures in billions for exports were:

2020

Goods 313.8
Services 310.4
Total. 624.1

2024
Goods. 364.3 - an increase of 16%
Services. 473.4 - an increase of 53%
Total. 837.7

Increased paperwork for goods has a greater impact on the EU than the UK as the UK buys more from the EU than the EU buys from the UK.

Services are unaffected by the TCA. Hence their greater growth than those for goods. Services are approx 80% of UK economy and 83% of employment. So, decline, if any, in goods is more than compensated by the increase in services.

As for companies not wanting to bother with additional paperwork, UK has an ever increasing trade surplus with Ireland in both goods and services. In 2016 it was 9.5 billion. In 2023 the surplus was 25.6 billion.

Source www.cso.ie

@Peregrina

I am not convinced polls are accurate. However, remain supporters used to get excited when polls, based in samples of 2000 persons which allegedly accurately represented the entire UK, suggested that more people thought Brexit was a bad decision as opposed to good.

I remember overall the South East voted to leave in 2016.

Time has moved on since 2016, in case anyone hasn't noticed!

2020? How convenient that you chose that year as your starting point. You must think I was born yesterday.

Trade in services unaffected by the TCA? Simply untrue. Again.

@hoopyvest

2020 was the year the UK left the EU. 11pm on 31 January 2020 to be precise. Hence the correct starting point

TCA regards; undercutting EU prices, compliance and the additional paperwork required from exporters of goods does not apply to services. This was confirmed on the BBC QT episode 22 June 2023.

The US has applied a 20% tariff on the EU. The EU might have got away with less had they not attempted to take over the Russia/Ukraine peace negotiations.

Had UK kept their noses out, they may have avoided the 10% tariff.

Trump is applying the principle of:

charity starts at home, look after your own first.

@Peregrina

Time has moved on since 2016, in case anyone hasn't noticed!

But many, including yourself, are convinced that World events such as:

COVID
Wars
Rising energy and food costs

Have not hindered the UK implementation of Brexit at all.

I just put this on the Trump thread but its rather relevant here too ....

Many of you know I used to work in freight forwarding.

Stuff en route to the USA from Vietnam and China and Europe takes many days at sea and then sits outside LA or Baltimore Harbour for several days on customs clearance.

It will be cheaper for the shippers to sit the ships at sea uncleared for a couple of weeks than pay the tariff.

Crews will get bored but the weather is improving in the Northern Hemisphere.

Sitting for six weeks may be enough for the policy to collapse.

The shortages in the USA will be immediate but short term.
The price rises will be immediate and long term.

As with Brexit, suppliers will find the customer of least resistance.

Why is it that Globetrotter is concerned about the EU getting involved with Ukraine, but has not said a dicky bird about the US getting involved?

Now I wonder, which country borders the EU?

^But many, including yourself, are convinced that World events such as:
COVID^

Far from it Globetrotter because it killed my husband.

In 2020 there was a global event.

I wonder whether you can remember what it was?

Had UK kept their noses out, they may have avoided the 10% tariff.

Only Russia and North Korea have avoided the 10% tariff
Not company the UK should want to keep

Yes, world events have happened.

But we chose to make ourselves far more susceptible to them because a bunch of idiots voted for Brexit because they don't like coloured people...

@hoopyvest

In 2020 there was a global event.
I wonder whether you can remember what it was?

If you read the post in full, the World event that occurred in 2020 is listed.

@Talkinpeace

Only Russia and North Korea have avoided the 10% tariff
Not company the UK should want to keep

So, why are the EU and UK buying Russian gas?

@MaybeNotBob

But we chose to make ourselves far more susceptible to them because a bunch of idiots voted for Brexit because they don't like coloured people...

Article 50 was triggered by 498 elected MPs on 29 March 2017. Their names are published on the internet. So, why don’t you sue them? However, be aware that Boris Johnson was sued for the Red bus and the 350 million, but it was dismissed.

Brexit could have been revoked on 12 December 2019 had the 16.1 million who voted remain in 2016 voted for the Liberal Democrat’s. However, they did not as the Liberal Democrat’s received only 3.7 million votes. So, at least 12.4 million remain supporters had changed their minds and thought Brexit should not be revoked.

The outcome of the 2024 general election was that 538 MPs are from parties who support Brexit.

Your arithmetic is unsound. How many people had died between the referendum and the 2019 election. What was the split between Remain and Leave votes?

It keeps repeating the same nonsense, as if those (stupid) MPs would have voted that way had the racists not voted because of their idiocy...

@Peregrina

What was the split between Remain and Leave votes?

On 29 March 2017 the vote was:

498 MPs leave 82%
113 MPs remain 18%

@MaybeNotBob

What evidence can you present which proves MPs were swayed by the 2016 referendum result when they voted in March 2017? As per remain supporters, the referendum was advisory and could be ignored if MPs thought it was the wrong direction to take.

Also, you, nor anyone else, has answered the question:

Why did the 16.1 million who voted remain in 2016 not vote for the Liberal Democrat’s in the 2019 general election? They were the only party who stated that if elected, Article 50 would be revoked.

Also, remember, the EU advised in December 2018 they would accept a unilateral revoke by the UK.

Move on to the general election in 2024, the outcome was that there are 538 MPs (82%) in parliament from parties who support Brexit.

Based on the above measured facts, support for Brexit is increasing as time passes.

Why are you living in the past.

Aligning with the EU against Trump is the issue now

Well duh! There would have been no vote in parliament without the referendum vote!

Are you really that stupid?

General elections are not single issue events.

@hoopyvest

So, what was in the Liberal Democrat’s manifesto that was worse than Brexit?

A question that has been asked many times, but never answered.

Remember that according to remain, Brexit was supposed to make everyone worse off in every way imaginable. No food, no medicine, jobs losses, reduced exports, etc. So, whilst Brexit is a single word, it’s not a single subject.

@MaybeNotBob

Well duh! There would have been no vote in parliament without the referendum vote!

The UK joined the EU in 1973 without a referendum beforehand. So, your logic that a vote in parliament regards EU membership must be preceded by a referendum is incorrect.

@Talkinpeace

Aligning with the EU against Trump is the issue now.

Maybe you have not noticed, but the tariff applied by the US on the EU was 20% compared to the 10% on the UK. So, alignment with the EU is the last thing the UK should do.

If UK shows any sign of tilting towards the EU, Trump should immediately implement the following:

Tariffs on the EU up from 20% to 39% to align with those applied by the EU on the US.

Logic? You wouldn't know it if it slapped you around the face with a wet kipper!

By Globe's logic, the UK should align itself with Russia and their 0% tariffs