Brexit mega thread part 15a - looking forwards

[Talkinpeace]

Just rebooting the most recent thread

At the moment the UKs issues are rather over shadowed by events elsewhere
but maybe that is a good thing.

The German election on Sunday is worth watching
Right wing European politicians pulling out of CPAC speeches because they realise its not a good look
Farage floundering to stay relevant

and the possibility of the return of free movement for our kids if not us

Relations between mainland Europe and the UK remain a worthy topic for discussion

It's doughnut

Oh dear, back to Junior School debating club again...

At dippy jane

The only EU member that has nukes is France. About 300 they have. Not much of a threat to a country that has an estimated 5,500 to 6,000.

The UK has nothing to gain by helping the EU to bring the Ukraine into EU membership.

More like a Russian parroting class

Funny that US and Russia want it so badly then, isn't it? 🤔

@TRexHamster

Where is the evidence that either Russia or the US want the EU?

Trumps decision to increase tariffs on the EU and to state that EU should fend for themselves and fight their own battles instead of leeching from the US does not indicate that the US wants the EU. Remember Trumps comment that the EU was designed to shaft the US.

Russia has oceans of oil it can sell to China and India. So, they don’t need to trade with the EU or the US. Three years of sanctions on Russia by both the EU and US did not bring the war to an end.

In 2014, Trump warned the EU about their reliance on Russian energy, but the EU ignored.

Both Russia and the US may be interested in Ukraines minerals, but the Ukraine is not an EU member. Hence, both Putin and Trump have told the EU to keep their noses out.

Also, remember that the amount of gas the EU buys from Russia is greater than the aid they have given to the Ukraine. So, Russia will not run out of money.

The Ukraine only exists in Kremlin talk

https://theconversation.com/its-ukraine-not-the-ukraine-heres-why-178748

Germany uses the Ukraine as opposed to Ukraine.

It also used to be The Argentine and The Lebanon, I add helpfully.
Peru is El Peru in Spanish.

The North is a figment of my imagination

From the OBR

Trade and the current account
2.54 The forecast assumes continued weak growth in trade volumes over the coming years. Exports fell 2.2 per cent in 2024, but we expect the level of exports to recover in 2025 and growth to average 0.8 per cent a year over 2026 to 2029. Imports rose 1.6 per cent in 2024, but we expect the level to stabilise in 2025 and growth to average 1.0 per cent over 2026 to 2029. Weak growth in imports and exports over the medium term partly reflect the continuing impact of Brexit, which we expect to reduce the overall trade intensity of the UK economy by 15 per cent in the long term.[12] Our central forecast does not explicitly account for the impact of recently announced tariff increases by the US and other countries. In Box 2.2, we explore alternative scenarios assessing how different US and global trade policies could impact the UK economy.

https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2025/#2-1

@DuncinToffee

The two key words were:

partly reflect

You also, conveniently, overlook that the reduction in forecast growth is attributed to Labour decision to increase business taxes, cuts in civil servants.

Also, never forget that what the experts forecasted in 2016 would be the immediate effect of a vote to leave, such as:

500,000 to 800,000 jobs lost,
GDP drop of 4% by 1 July 2018, whilst the UK was still in the EU
Emergency budget that would cripple the country

NEVER happened.

Before the referendum in 2016, the only EU member that had a larger economy than the UK was Germany. Nine years later, Germany is still the only EU member to have a larger economy than the UK.

However, although Germany has a larger economy than the UK, its poverty rate is approaching 1 in 4 compared to UK approaching 1 in 5

This has several possible explanations:

The other 26 EU members have grown at a lower rate than the UK since 2016. Hence the reason not one has passed the UK.

Other world events since 2016 have eclipsed the advantages or disadvantages of Brexit.

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/jonty-bloom-a-new-front-in-the-brexiteers-war-on-reality/

https://www.ft.com/content/2fe9ba21-3885-424b-9c9a-b533ccb39a91?segmentId=114a04fe-353d-37db-f705-204c9a0a157b

The economic consensus is overwhelming - Brexit has reduced trade and therefore growth.

Brexiters' defence is 'well, it's not as bad as you said it would be'. This isn't what they promised in 2016. Where are those sunlit uplands?

Shellfish farming in Scotland will never recover from Brexit.

The opportunities for young British people to work in a variety of countries will never recover from Brexit

UK water quality rules were relaxed after Brexit - that has gone well Thames Water

Shellfish farming in Scotland will never recover from Brexit.

Hardly a surprise. Brexit wasn't aimed at it.

Brexit wasn't 'aimed'; at many things.

Knowledge of the Single Market and Customs Union and the consequences of leaving was very low.

Brexit has made the UK more vulnerable to cyber attacks, a tech minister has said.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/major-cyber-attack-defence-laws-34966988

@hoopyvest

This isn't what they promised in 2016. Where are those sunlit uplands?

Like so many, if not all, remain supporters, you have been asleep since 2016. Was it possible to know in 2016 the following would occur:

2020 to 2022 - COVID rocked the entire world

2022 - Russia invaded the Ukraine and energy prices spiral upwards

2023 - Israel Gaza war

2024 - Trump wins US election

2025 - Trump begins to increase tariffs on many countries

All of the above has impacted everyone and every country.

The effects of Brexit, up or down, are negligible compared to the above. The proof of that statement is simple. The UK is in the same place relative to the EU members in 2025 as it was before 2016.

The UK had access to an extraordinarily good trade deal negotiating team while in the EU.

The independent Australian deal shows how weak the UKs hand was in reality

Once Starmer stops watching Netflix and That's Life we might get a better EU deal again.

Every country was impacted by Covid.

Many countries were impacted by the Ukraine war.

Only the UK demanded a worse trade arrangement with its biggest trading partner.

At talking poo poo

UK demanded a worse trade arrangement with its biggest trading partner.

You might want to speak to Itsy about this. They are based in France and complain regularly about the additional paperwork they have to provide to export to the UK.

The EU exports more to the UK than UK sells to the EU. So, the increased paperwork has greater effect on the EU than it does on the UK as the EU is also required to follow the TCA regulations.

The UK service industry has boomed since Brexit as they are not subject to the TCA.

If you watch the 22 June 2023 episode of BBC Question Time, Ben Habib explained that the huge wad of paperwork that effects exporters of goods arose due to the open border between NI and ROI. He blamed Elo Verucca (Leo Varadkar) for weaponising the border by saying violence would be a certainty if a customs border was installed.

To stick with your theme, Brexiteer Habib was talking shite.