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Brexit

Brexit MegaThread - part 14

1000 replies

Peregrina · 27/07/2024 23:43

Thread 13. We had a debate about whether there should be a new one but if no one answers this the whole series after 8 years plus will come to their end.

Brexit happened, although one time Leavers do not seem to appreciate this.
It's worth noting I think that Brexit was a Tory initiative and the Tory party has just received its worse electoral thrashing since 1832. Could it be entirely unrelated?

What next? A gradual rapprochement with the EU? A Norway style agreement?

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GlobeTrotter2000 · 17/02/2025 09:25

Why did rejoin the EU parties not win in 2024?
Because we have a first past the post voting system making it virtually impossible for a third party to win. The Lib Dems increased their seats hugely and have got over 70 seats so did significantly better in the last election.

Even though they received fewer votes than in 2019. Does that not indicate that fewer people think the LibDems position on EU is best for the UK?

One of Reforms policies is to have a more PR based electoral system.

SerendipityJane · 17/02/2025 10:17

DuncinToffee · 17/02/2025 09:11

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/feb/17/uk-marketplace-sellers-ebay-amazon-us-sales-donald-trump-import-rules

UK marketplace sellers face ‘second Brexit’ hit from Trump’s US import rules

If Putin kicks off, then selling to his allies may not be the best thing.

GlobeTrotter2000 · 17/02/2025 11:00

@DuncinToffee

So, the EU does not use either Amazon or EBay?

MaybeNotBob · 18/02/2025 00:31

So it seems that we're not all against a European army after all...

Brexit MegaThread  - part 14
GlobeTrotter2000 · 18/02/2025 09:12

As the UK is not a member of the EU, what’s it go to do with the UK whether or not the EU has an army?

If the EU wants the Ukraine to be an EU member in the future, then the cost of defending the Ukraine shall be borne solely by the EU. Likewise, the cost of reconstruction of the Ukraine shall be borne solely by the EU.

Trump and Putin are playing the game well. Both Trump and Putin have said the EU has no role or priority in the peace process. As the Ukraine is not an EU member, I agree.

If the EU pokes their nose in, the outcome will be that the USA withdraws support completely. This makes it very easy for Russia to advance into the EU.

borntobequiet · 18/02/2025 09:19

As the UK is not a member of the EU, what’s it go to do with the UK whether or not the EU has an army?

It matters because we work very closely with the EU and its constituent countries on matters of security and military cooperation. How these countries constitute their armed forces would be a factor in that cooperation.

Honestly, a 12 year old could do better.

SerendipityJane · 18/02/2025 09:33

MaybeNotBob · 18/02/2025 00:31

So it seems that we're not all against a European army after all...

Some blue water opening up between Tories and Reform. I look forward to St. Kemi completely missing the significance.

MaybeNotBob · 18/02/2025 10:32

Funny how all these Brexshiteers don't seem to care about "sovereignty" these days...

SerendipityJane · 18/02/2025 12:32

MaybeNotBob · 18/02/2025 10:32

Funny how all these Brexshiteers don't seem to care about "sovereignty" these days...

They're elbowing each other aside in an unholy rush to give away OUR sovereignty. People giving away what they don't own. Now why does that sound familiar ?

GlobeTrotter2000 · 18/02/2025 16:16

@borntobequiet

Since when has the Ukraine been a constituent country of the EU?

GlobeTrotter2000 · 18/02/2025 16:50

As of February 2025, the most important issues facing the UK are:

1st - Economy 55%
2nd - Immigration 45%

Brexit comes second from bottom at 13% beaten only by Education with 12%.

Source Statista.com

The same source records that there is no overwhelming support to rejoin the EU. Figures provided are:

31% want to rejoin
30% want to improve trade relations, but not rejoin either the EU or the single market.

39% did not give an opinion either way. A big increase from the 28% who chose not to vote in the 2016 referendum. This would explain why Brexit is almost at the bottom of the list regards what people think are the biggest issues facing the UK.

Other figures provided are:

56% of those who voted remain want to rejoin the EU.

Remain supporters changing their minds might explain why the LibDems offer to revoke Article 50 in the 2019 general election was not taken.

46% of those who voted leave want to increase the trading relationship with the EU without joining the single market.

These figures also suggest there is no overwhelming support to rejoin the EU.

DuncinToffee · 18/02/2025 17:01

Any chance of a proper link @GlobeTrotter2000 ?

Peregrina · 18/02/2025 17:08

I can't help wondering what those Brexiters who swore that NATO was what was most important, are thinking now with recent developments in the US.

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DuncinToffee · 18/02/2025 18:55

https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/brexit-uk-tourism-cost-eta-b2700030.html

Cost of Brexit on UK’s tourism industry revealed – with the worst yet to come

‘The UK is likely to lose competitive share both within Europe and globally,’ says VisitBritain

Zonder · 18/02/2025 19:11

DuncinToffee · 18/02/2025 17:01

Any chance of a proper link @GlobeTrotter2000 ?

Worth a try 😊

Pipsquiggle · 18/02/2025 19:28

DuncinToffee · 18/02/2025 17:01

Any chance of a proper link @GlobeTrotter2000 ?

@DuncinToffee yes I concur

@GlobeTrotter2000 here you go. Here's a link to Brexit sentiment over time. Funnily enough from Statista

https://www.statista.com/statistics/987347/brexit-opinion-poll/

Also @GlobeTrotter2000 you do realise that the Economy and growth (or lack of) is linked to not being in the EU? Although I have told you this 3 times and you haven't acknowledged or given me any data on to refute this.

Also your working set up does sound complicated /shit, no wonder you have an admin team to sort all that out for you. Such a shame that people aren't given the chance to relocate should they want to. That would have happened 10 years ago

Talkinpeace · 18/02/2025 22:02

Watching Julia Hartley Brewer shred Richard Tice made me chuckle
"which bit of England would you let an invader keep"
"I thought you cared about sovereign borders"

MaybeNotBob · 18/02/2025 22:19

When Julia Heartless-Spewer is holding you ro account, you must be so far in the wrong it's beyond reason...

GlobeTrotter2000 · 18/02/2025 22:35

@Pipsquiggle

You need to look at all of the data. Not just the bits you like.

The statista data estimates that around 55% think Brexit was not a good idea. However, that is less than the 60% bar advocated by many remain supporters that should have been the minimum to represent a majority.

However, that figure is not consistent with the other data presented such as only 56% of those who voted remain want to rejoin the EU. Surely, that figure should have been very close to, if not exactly, 100% if remain supporters have not changed their minds.

Likewise, the statista data estimates that only 31% of those polled want to rejoin the EU. That is a big difference from the estimate of 55% think Brexit was not a good idea. If more than half think Brexit was not a good idea, how can it be that only 31% want to rejoin the EU?

Based on known historical and measured facts such as:

None of the general elections held since Article 50 was triggered in 2017 have been won by pro EU parties.

None of the pro EU parties received more votes in the general elections than those parties who are not pro EU regardless of the FPTP system.

I would say the 31% figure for those wanting to rejoin (and by definition 69% don’t want to rejoin) is more credible than the 55% estimate.

Since the 2024 general election, all major parties have agree that immigration is out of control and needs to be curbed. Watch QT starting August 2024 if you want to check. Under the Tories, 6.5 million people entered the UK, but only 16% were working. That’s leaves 5 million who are not working.

The 5 billion that the UK spends on asylum is 5 billion less that can be invested in the UK. Same applies to the 8 million spent on free hotels.

Farage stated in the 5 December 2024 episode of QT that uncontrolled immigration and allowing people to enter who don’t contribute was making the UK poorer. Alastair Campbell agreed and he is a remain supporter. That statista estimates 55% think the economy is the biggest issue facing the UK followed by 45% who think immigration is the biggest issue is because the two are linked. The greater the number of non contributing migrants that enter the UK, the more the UK loses out.

Both France and Germany are facing the same immigration crisis as the UK. Even Michel Barnier has warned Macron about making the same mistake as the UK which could lead to a Frexit.

The multi national oil and energy companies oil and energy I have represented over the last 30 years operate in mostly less developed countries. Eg, Africa, Kazakhstan, Iraq, India, Suriname, Sakhalin all of whom require work permits and visa for non-nationals. Same applies to the developed countries I have worked in such as; US, Japan, Canada.

So, I don’t see the relevance of your comment about freedom to relocate. If you have the skills that other countries need, you will be granted the necessary work permit and visa.

One of the aims of Brexit was to bring immigration under control. The conservatives failed in that aim as confirmed by Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg and hence lost the election. Labour seem to be failing too.

MaybeNotBob · 18/02/2025 22:37

The statista data estimates that around 55% think Brexit was not a good idea. However, that is less than the 60% bar advocated by many remain supporters that should have been the minimum to represent a majority.

Oh dear, captain 52% doesn't actually read what they write...

GlobeTrotter2000 · 18/02/2025 23:14

@Talkinpeace

Julia Hartley Brewer is a Brexit supporter.

It you want to see her if real good form watch her speaking to Alastair Campbell on talk radio 24 October 2017.

When asked where are the 500,000 people who were supposed to have lost their jobs just by a vote to leave, Campbell could not reply.

She also had to point out that UK were not permitted to enter into trade negotiations until after the UK had formally left the EU in response to Campbells question where are the trade deals.

Best of all was his assertion that UK had parliamentary sovereignty, but at the same time laws that the uk had to follow were not made by persons elected by the UK voters.

GlobeTrotter2000 · 18/02/2025 23:35

At definitely (as opposed to maybe) a knob.

Brexit did not happen due to the 17.4 million 52% leave vs 16 million 48% remain outcome in 2016, but by a 498 (82%) leave vs 113 (18%) remain by elected MPs in 2017.

Never forget that polls are not binding and are often wrong as demonstrated in 2016.

The decision whether or not the UK will rejoin will have to be made as follows:

Firstly an act of parliament will have to be passed to trigger article 49.

Secondly, and most significantly I would say, is that any application to join the EU has to be approved unanimously by all members.

I would say several members might say no as follows:

Germany
France
Spain
Ireland

DuncinToffee · 18/02/2025 23:38

.

Peregrina · 18/02/2025 23:39

/

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