Brexit MegaThread - part 14

[Peregrina]

Thread 13. We had a debate about whether there should be a new one but if no one answers this the whole series after 8 years plus will come to their end.

Brexit happened, although one time Leavers do not seem to appreciate this.
It's worth noting I think that Brexit was a Tory initiative and the Tory party has just received its worse electoral thrashing since 1832. Could it be entirely unrelated?

What next? A gradual rapprochement with the EU? A Norway style agreement?

"Interrogation" is such a hostile characterisation.

"Model training" sounds far nicer.

@DuncinToffee

How many people does YouGov poll? Is it a few thousand, or is it 45,million. It is of course the former. This is why they can’t be trusted.

If such polls were accurate, why has the number of MPs from Brexit supporting parties increased since 2016?

Looked at the Anand Menon report. It concludes that the treasury report issued before the referendum which stated the UK would suffer huge job losses, 4% drop in GDP, etc., was complete inaccurate. So, it’s title project fear was correct.

The estimate of 4% loss of productivity is based in the doppelgänger approach of looking at similar economies, but does not explain why changes have occurred. That both France and Germany have also underperformed suggests other factors are involved that are not Brexit related.

Trade in goods has declined, but that trend existed long before Brexit. Likewise trade in Services has boomed since the TCA was signed as they are not subject to the TCA.

As 80% of UK economy is service based, growth in services is a good thing.

The statement:

“The EU does not necessarily consider it to be in its interests for a post-Brexit UK to flourish economically”

and a few sentences later with:

“The EU sees ‘strong potential to move forward with the UK on a defence agreement “

Sums up the one sided approach the EU has. They don’t want the UK to be better than the EU, but want help from the UK to fight their battles.

Brexit is done

Its shit

Get over it

The rest of us will move on to find new ways to repair the damage

Ah, I see Global is complaining about it's erm "posting style" being criticised.

Probably someone who would shout "Freeze Peach" at the earliest opportunity...

You can't take much notice of what Global posts - they're still pretending most parties are pro Brexit. That's been debunked many times and yet still they roll it out so engagement is futile.

The implosion of the Tory party.

Now that is a undeniable benefit. You can spent forever quibbling about 0.001% being a boost to the economy, but seeing the worlds oldest and most successful political party suffer it's worst defeat in 200 years speaks for itself.

It's even more delicious that by purging anyone remotely half competent they still aren't building but digging. They are currently the Social Democrats to the Reforms Liberal party. And we know how that ended.

It doesn't seem to understand that political parties aren't monoliths where everyone is a clone of everyone else and has the same political opinions about everything. There's not a lot of I in the A.

To be fair, the Tory party also failed to understand that. Hence their demise.

52/48 was never going to end well. It should never have happened.

Now we have a sense of precedent will will take several generations to fade. In any debate, even a .000000000001% majority will be seized on as "winning" and used to justify oppression on a national scale.

We look west, and see the US political system which - not being as clever as it thought it was - similarly allows that knife edge "majority" to lead to oppression.

Trump did not win "a landslide". Still more people did not vote for him than did. And thanks to a complicit media, that minority is forever going to be fed the message that - because they can't get their way - there are "dark forces" at work,

The same way the brain dead Brexiteers could not grasp that having more people not voting for Brexit than did was not the majority they thought it was. And therefore (as they discovered and were warned) they could not get anything of note done.

Come 2028, any political party that hitches it's wagon to the Brexit bus is going nowhere. The next challenge is to hide that from the voters.

As a number of us predicted after the Referendum and particularly after BJ became PM.

@Zonder

That's been debunked many times and yet still they roll it out so engagement is futile.

Its a fact that all general elections since Article 50 was triggered on 29 March 2017 by 498 elected MPs have been won by Parties who support Brexit.

@SerendipityJane

Article 50 could not be triggered by the result of the referendum held 23 June 2016, but had to be done by an act of parliament.

MPs voted 498 to trigger Article 50 vs 113 against. In percentage terms that’s 82% for Brexit and 18% against. So, reference to the 52/48 split in 2016 is not relevant as it was superseded by law the following year.

Brexiteers could not grasp that having more people not voting for Brexit than did was not the majority they thought

How is the 16.1 million who voted remain a larger number than the 17.4 million who voted leave?

Not that it is of any relevance as UK law established that whether or not to leave the EU had to done by an act of parliament.

but seeing the worlds oldest and most successful political party suffer it's worst defeat in 200 years speaks for itself

Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg acknowledged on Question Time episode 28 November 2024 that the Conservative Party deserved to lose the election. Reason given was that the promised reduction in immigration had not happened.

So, voters moved to Labour in hope that their manifesto pledges will materialise which included:

No return to the CU or SM,
recognition that the previous Conservative government had allowed too many people into the UK.

It should never have happened.

Had the same number of people who voted remain in 2016 voted for the Liberal Democrat’s in the 2019 general election, Brexit would not have happened.

We've had that conversation before Global. You didn't listen. I'm not having it again.

It still believes that everyone in a political party agrees on everything and believes exactly the same thing - and it believes the same thing about the electorate. Mindboggling.

Yes, totally. Crazy.

That's why I no longer bother reading his posts. There is absolutely no point

So true @prettybird

There are plenty more interesting posts on this thread to stick to.

As the 5th year of leaving the EU is 'celebrated,' I just feel sorry for the people that still think that Brexit was some magical panacea that would solve immigration, sovereignty and public services.

Of course, as predicted, everything has got worse, as we are now dislocated from our nearest and biggest trading partner and the vast majority of people are poorer.

I hate how there are no fiscal or legal consequences for the people who deceived the nation to push through their flawed agenda with no plans in place of how to action their lies.

I agree @Pipsquiggle those who deliberately lied to get this through should be held to account.

It's not like there's no evidence!

Yes, I didn't see Farage at the head of any fifth anniversary celebrations.

I am sure I read somewhere that he was off celebrating in Badenoch's constituency but can't be bothered to check

I read that too, but I was thinking more of a grand procession through London. Or a celebration in Hyde Park.

@Peregrina ending at Marble Arch, or as it used to be known - Tyburn ?
Perfect for Farridge

BBC's Countryfile is discussing Brexit, not heard any benefits yet.

Colour me shocked!