Brexit MegaThread - part 14

[Peregrina]

Thread 13. We had a debate about whether there should be a new one but if no one answers this the whole series after 8 years plus will come to their end.

Brexit happened, although one time Leavers do not seem to appreciate this.
It's worth noting I think that Brexit was a Tory initiative and the Tory party has just received its worse electoral thrashing since 1832. Could it be entirely unrelated?

What next? A gradual rapprochement with the EU? A Norway style agreement?

These threads will merge with the general politics threads and there will be no need for a seperate board anymore hiding this 'sensitive' topic

In the mean time

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jul/28/keir-starmer-and-spanish-pm-reportedly-discussed-youth-mobility-scheme

In some respects, I'd prefer these threads to stay separate . There are some other "political" threads that I continue to enjoy that are sensible, educated and articulate and aren't infested by irrelevance, squirrels and C&Pers. So I'm actually able to read the threads in their entirety and not have to scroll past screeds of inanity.

The key point that these threads cover
that no other does
is
"what happens when you LEAVE a major trading bloc"
Many countries join
many countries stay
not many leave
and the lessons we have had are being learned by many.

Some day a PhD ought to use these plus Westminstenders threads to analyse the predictive nature of crowd commentary. Back in the day there many posters involved in logistics etc that pointed out the ridiculous obstacles Brexit would throw up for British businesses.

Anyhow, speaking of lessons…

www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jul/28/uk-port-operators-to-seek-compensation-if-post-brexit-trade-barriers-are-lowered

@Peregrina Could it be entirely unrelated?

Definitely unrelated. Tory large loss was attributable to 4 million+ votes for the Reform Party.

Also, Labour applied lessons learnt from the 2019 general election when they received their worst result in 85 years by trying to ignore the 2016 referendum result.

GlobeTrotter2000

So you think you know where those 4 million Reform votes came from do you? Have you asked at least a representative sample?

I know for a fact that in my own constituency and the neighbouring one, that the Tory and Reform votes combined were still not enough for the Tories to win. I will grant that Farage/UKIP/whatever he called his party then, did help to give the Tories their solid majority in 2019.

As for Labour having its worse result for 85 years - how is that worse than the Tories have the worse result for 192 years?

BTW did you notice that the UK left the EU in 2020/21 - allowing for the transition period?

So you think you know where those 4 million Reform votes came from do you? Have you asked at least a representative sample?

Tories received Approx. 7 million fewer votes in 2024 compared to 2019. 4 million for Reform and 3 million fewer turnout add to 7 million. Amazing coincidence.

As for Labour having its worse result for 85 years - how is that worse than the Tories have the worse result for 192 years?

Both bad, but the cause was the same for both - Nigel Farage.

BTW did you notice that the UK left the EU in 2020/21 - allowing for the transition period?

UK is no longer a full member of the EU, but Brexit not delivered.

I'm sorry Globe, but you keep demanding that we talk to every single voter who voted for Brexit before declaring what they all voted for, so I'm afraid you now have to talk to each of the 4 million Deform voters before you can tell us that their votes came from the Tories.

Anything less is just blatant hypocrisy...

GlobeTrotter2000

I don't know about your Referendum Ballot paper but mine just asked whether we wanted to Leave or Remain. I didn't see a PTO asking "If Leave, which option would you prefer?"

Johnson kicked most Remainers out of his party and others e.g. Truss turned coat pretty smartish, so we left the EU and Johnson delivered Brexit.

It seems not to be your liking but that's tough.

I don't remember seeing on the ballot paper where it asked if you were voting for a party other than the one you would have voted for. Perhaps that was missing from mine?

@HannibalHeyes

now have to talk to each of the 4 million Deform voters before you can tell us that their votes came from the Tories.

Never that each and every one who voted Reform did so as a protest to Tories. However, if you compare the 2019 and 2024 results, the biggest swings are the Tories and Reform. Swing for other Parties was less than 2% when compared to 2019. For example,

Labour, 500K less than in 2019
LibDems 150K less than in 2019

Tories down by 7 million and Reform up by 4 million. That leaves a difference of 3 million to explain. Could be a coincidence, but the turnout in 2024 was Approx. 3 million less than in 2019.

If the Reform votes did not come from the Tories, where else?

I don't remember seeing on the ballot paper where it asked if you were voting for a party other than the one you would have voted for

You remember correctly. UK does not have an STV or a first and second round system.

@Peregrina

I don't know about your Referendum Ballot paper but mine just asked whether we wanted to Leave or Remain.

All Ballot papers said the same as yours.

I didn't see a PTO asking "If Leave, which option would you prefer?"

Because there wasn't a PTO on any of the ballot papers. Reason was the choice had to be an equal balance between leave and remain.

so we left the EU and Johnson delivered Brexit

Both statements incorrect. UK is no longer a full member of the EU, but Brexit was not solely about that.

Other aspects such as trade and making laws to fit the UK are not yet fulfilled. JRM estimated it could be 50 years before the Brexit potential is seen and that was before; COVID, conflicts and cost of living rises came to the fore.

Ah, so a hypocrite it is then.

Thought as much...

Brexit is delivered, Britain exited the EU

@DuncinToffee Britain exited the EU

So, how come the EU and UK still trade with each other?

Brexit was never about severing all communications, dealings with the EU, but to be able to look elsewhere and have more control on immigration. Take a look at:

Why Switzerland doesn’t want to join the European Union - SWI swissinfo.ch

Key points are:

One of the biggest problems from the Swiss perspective is the wealth divide. Switzerland would not only be one of the net contributors to the EU – one of the countries which pays in more than it takes out – but Swiss wages are also considerably higher than in the EU. Switzerland is therefore afraid of “wage dumping” and immigration into its welfare system

The underlined text sums up perfectly. Indeed, Michelle Barnier has warned France not to make the same mistake as the UK otherwise there may be a Frexit.

In Iceland it’s all about fishing, in Norway it’s the oil industry that hinders EU membership.

You mean your Brexit hasn't been delivered Globe.

It was all about immigration after all then?

As Hannibal says, a hypocrite it is then

UK does not have an STV or a first and second round system.

You need to read up about the voting systems in operation in the UK. You might be surprised. You might just find also that England and UK are not synonymous.

It feels like globe is trying to swamp these threads with long posts full of peripheral references - not sure what the purpose is given that any brexit benefits are accepted as 'potential' whilst the huge disbenefits are here and have bitten.

Can I suggest a return to moggy posts for a while to maintain interest until the next decision point crops up?

And the Brexit Arms threads. I wonder how those predictions have worked out?

They must be enjoying their pints of wine in a glass with a crown mark

@DuncinToffee It was all about immigration after all then?

No, However, if you refer to Labour's manifesto it includes:

our economy has become overly dependent on workers from abroad to fill skills shortages.

So, Labour will reduce net migration.

@Kendodd And the Brexit Arms threads. I wonder how those predictions have worked out?

I remember that the Brexit Arms threads were before:

COVID
Invasion of Ukraine
Israel conflict

Whereas the:

500K to 800K job loses
4% shrink in UK GDP
Emergency budget that would ruin the UK

were supposed to happen just by quarter three 2018

@GlobeTrotter2000

I didn't refer to the Labour manifesto, I referred to your version of Brexit

HTH

Happy to oblige with pictures of elite cats

Globe is the equivalent of those little conical 'hats' that you use to snuff out candles with, starving all the oxygen and interest out of the discussion.
I have been 'adopted' by my girlfriend's dog who is clearly a lot more interesting than attempting a discussion with Globe;
The world is going to be a lot more interesting in the coming months and the Uk had positioned itself the removed from many of the discussions by the big powers so will be tagging along with whatever agreements it can find. So much for 'global Britain'.

@IItisymoi

The OP attempted to connect the Tories bad result to Brexit, but overlooked the following facts:

Conservatives had 330 seats at the time 498 MPs voted to trigger Article 50 on 29 March 2017. So, there were at least 168 MPs from other parties who supported Brexit.

The opportunity to cancel Brexit was presented by the Liberal Democrats in the 2019 general election, but they only received 1.3 million more votes compared to 2017. Had those who voted remain in 2016 voted for the Liberal Democrats in 2019, the UK would not have left the EU.

Labour's 2019 manifesto included a commitment to secure a deal with the EU and put it to a vote alongside an option to remain. Is this why they got their worst result in 85 years (206 seats)? ie voters objected to being told their vote does not count. Had those who voted remain in 2016 voted for labour in 2019, the option to cancel Brexit would have been presented.

In the 2024 general election Labour won seats in 412 constituencies which is close to the Full Fact estimate of 406 constituencies that voted leave in the 2016 referendum. Their manifesto include the statement that the UK will remain outside the EU. Is that why they doubled the number of seats they won?

So, remain supporters have been given two chances to cancel Brexit, but on both occasions they chose otherwise.

And finally the slower ones amongst us are starting to realise what an absolute sh!t show Brexit is, and gave the Tories a pasting as a result.

Gordon Bennet, Globe doesn't half like repeating itself. A is definitely not very I...