Brexit MegaThread - part 14

[Peregrina]

Thread 13. We had a debate about whether there should be a new one but if no one answers this the whole series after 8 years plus will come to their end.

Brexit happened, although one time Leavers do not seem to appreciate this.
It's worth noting I think that Brexit was a Tory initiative and the Tory party has just received its worse electoral thrashing since 1832. Could it be entirely unrelated?

What next? A gradual rapprochement with the EU? A Norway style agreement?

What were they saying about it?

It was about red tape and border checks at Harwich and Dover, how it takes time, how goods get damaged and for Dover how checks depend on co-operation and how low quality meat checks get easily avoided and end up on the supermarket shelves. That more importers choose to avoid the UK

The thing that astonishes me is that the people they persuaded to vote Leave still hero worship them despite all the lies being exposed and us all suffering the consequences. Leave voters actually seem even more angry with Remainers when they pointed out all the damage.

@Pipsquiggle

I hate how there are no fiscal or legal consequences for the people who deceived the nation to push through their flawed agenda with no plans in place of how to action their lies.

Article 50 was triggered by 498 MPs on 29 March 2017. So, they were convinced it was the right decision for the UK.

As for lack of planning, that’s down to Cameron (a remain supporter). He offered a referendum on leave or remain without a plan to deliver leave if that was the outcome.

To all,

If people thought they had been lied and the decision made by 498 MPs to trigger Article 50 was wrong, why did the Liberal Democrat’s not win the 2019 General Election? They offered to revoke Article 50 if elected, but the electorate chose the Conservatives instead.

If people thought they had been lied and the decision made by 498 MPs to trigger Article 50 was wrong, why did the Liberal Democrat’s not win the 2019 General Election? They offered to revoke Article 50 if elected, but the electorate chose the Conservatives instead.

There is quite an easy answer to that - we were still in the EU, so the promised benefits of Brexit, were still on the near horizon. Boris promised to get Brexit done. Once people began to realise that Brexit had happened, (Not you Globetrotter2000, you don't seem to realise this) then they began to see that the benefits weren't happening yet and the scales began to fall from their eyes.

The Tories got slaughtered at the last election. Whether Farage and Reform will come riding to their rescue and give them the Brexit they actually want, remains to be seen.

Countryfile piece from yesterday explained in this thread

https://bsky.app/profile/bestforbritain.bsky.social/post/3lhbk5nc22222

A fascinating piece by BBC Countryfile, really bringing home the absurdity of post-Brexit red tape.
The truth is that Brexit bureaucracy is suffocating the aspirations of our entrepreneurs; from our SMEs to our farmers.

@Peregrina

There is quite an easy answer to that - we were still in the EU, so the promised benefits of Brexit, were still on the near horizon.

Flawed logic. Before the referendum took place, it was forecast the UK would disappear into nowhere just by a vote to leave. Those forecasts were proved to be wrong if you read the Article link about Europeanmovement provided by Duncin.

On 19 September 2024 episode of QT, the Labour MP, Lucy Powell, confirmed that Labour will be judged on their performance regards immigration targets when the next election comes around.

As per Jacob Rees-Mogg on QT 28 November 2024, Conservatives deserved to lose the 2024 election as they had failed to meet immigration targets. He went in to say that if Labour achieved their targets regards immigration, then the UK electorate was correct in their choice.

In the 5 December 2024 episode of QT, the conservative MP, Kevin Hollinrake, also acknowledged that the Conservatives had failed on immigration and deserved to lose the election. On the same episode, Alastair Campbell, was asked by Farage if he wanted the UK to be like France and Germany are now. Campbell replied No. He also acknowledged that UK had lost control of immigration and agreed with Farage that immigration only made sense if they were working.

So, yes the Conservatives suffered their largest defeat since the 1800’s. However, that was due to failed immigration control as opposed to Brexit.

Complete lack of logic there Globetrotter2000. Parties lose elections for a number of reasons. For some it would certainly be because the Tories brought in Brexit.

Kit Malthouse has a great idea how to protect the UK against a unreliable and unpredictable US President

Have closer trade and cooperation with the EU!

@GlobeTrotter2000 you will always be pro-Brexit - it doesn't matter what the stats say or anecdotally what people's lived experiences are - you will staunchly defend it. And that's fine.

The problem with your myopic outlook on this subject, is that the vast majority of people are not (and were not) fervently in favour or against Brexit.
The vast majority of people are in the middle.
All the data, indicates that all the fervent Brexiteers are still happy that we have left; whereas the vast majority of everyone else thinks it has had a negative impact on the country and their lives.

The last government wanted growth, the current government wants growth. Whatever they plan e.g. Heathrow airport expansion, more house building................. will not deliver anywhere close to what we lost with free trade with the EU. It's all just a complete clusterfuck

@Pipsquiggle

whereas the vast majority of everyone else thinks it has had a negative impact on the country and their lives.

Incorrect statement as evidenced by the fact that since 29 March 2017 when the UK lawmakers voted to leave the EU, all three general elections have been won by parties who support Brexit.

The current Labour Party won 412 seats in 2024. Their manifesto regards Brexit stated:

There will be no return to the CU or SM. The Conservatives allowed too many people into the UK.

As of Jan 2025, people thought the most important issues facing the UK were:

51% economy
45% Immigration / health
21% housing
19% crime
17% environment
12% brexit
9% education

So, Brexit is second from the bottom if you trust polls.

Source statistics.com

@Peregrina

For some it would certainly be because the Tories brought in Brexit.

The key word being “some”.

The majority thought otherwise as evidenced by Labour’s and that Reform party received 4 million votes. Both Labour and Reform are Brexit supporters.

Conservatives received 7 million fewer votes in 2024 compared to 2019.

In 2024, the turnout was 3 million less than 2019. Add that to the 4 million votes for reform equates to the 7 million fewer votes for the conservatives.

Even the Express has a poll with 70% unhappy with Brexit

By lack of screenshots, link here
https://bsky.app/profile/mikegalsworthy.bsky.social/post/3lhdh7aawb22r

@DuncinToffee

I guess you have been taking lessons from Serendipity.

For years remain supporters stated that Brexit happened because people believed what was printed in the Daily Mail, Express and other tabloids. However, when such tabloids print something remain supporters want to hear, they suddenly become law.

Oh @GlobeTrotter2000 rather than keeping pasting edited news articles / quotes to suit your narrative can you also apply critical thinking as well?

Yes - Labour and Conservative both said they wouldn't go back into EU - that's because they wanted to win the election and win some of their seats back. They needed to win the red wall back. So yes they needed to say that. I would bet that most MPs in all parties think that leaving the EU was a complete disaster as most are university educated (most people with degrees voted to remain).

Yes the economy is, quite rightly, top priority for most people at the moment. Now to apply the critical thinking part, do you see that Brexit in 6th position directly and irrevocably affects the economy in 1st place?
Until we recoup 4% GDP, which is what we have lost due to leaving, we will have a declining economy which affects ALL elements on the list.

Do you understand what I have written? Until we get back to where we were in terms of trade and economic standing - everything gets shitter for the vast amount of people in country. The millionaires like Rees-Mogg and Farage and Arron Banks will be OK - they will probably get richer.

Here are some news articles and graphs

And this is the heart breaking one - how people feel about Brexit by age - how the older population have robbed the young of working in the EU easily and trading with them easily. I feel so sad for my DC.

The millionaires like Rees-Mogg and Farage and Arron Banks will be OK - they will probably get richer.

Imagine if they didn't ? How much worse would that make things ? All for nothing.

I do think our friend Globe does us a service by exposing all the duplicitous and disingenuous arguments deployed by Brexit supporters, repeatedly and in detail, so that even the most poorly informed reader can’t fail to recognise their falsity, expecially in the light of the manifestly disastrous consequences of the decision to leave the EU.

That is quite the compliment

Don't worry about the DM and Express, they are still banging the drum for Brexit. That poll must hurt you true believers

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3e1wnvkzeyo?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR1lW8SZXX5YNJu_hUKFE73oQ8TDbSnPJhS1pNsoVCXAHyOp401FPsgQtW4_aem_BNo5q32k7HWhi2uPLR7rgQ

What is KS doing? 🤦‍♀️

I was intrigued that the BBC not only allowed Emma Barnett to completely crush Farage in an interview, but that they - albeit briefly - featured it in their feeds. (Now removed obviously. Someone high up spotted it).

However it really is an excellent piece. Notice how all she is doing is "asking questions". You know. Like Nigel Farage does.

If every interviewer did their job like Emma, Farage would be nowhere.

"I'm not your mate". 😀

@Pipsquiggle

Now to apply the critical thinking part, do you see that Brexit in 6th position directly and irrevocably affects the economy in 1st place?

You obviously did not look at the trends.

In Dec 2019 the figures were:

1st - Brexit 62%
2nd - Health 53%
3rd - Environment 26%
4th - Economy / Crime 25%
5th - Immigration 22%
6th - Housing 13%
7th - Education 12%
8th - Defence 9%

For Jan 2025 the figures were:

1st - Economy 51%
2nd - Health / Immigration 45%
3rd - Housing 21%
4th - crime 19%
5th - Environment / defence 17%
6th - Brexit 12%
7th - Education 9%

So, other than education, everything that was previously below Brexit is now above Brexit as the major issues facing the UK. If, as you suggest, Brexit impacts everything, why has it dropped from first position to 6th whilst others, except education, have moved up the list?

The largest increases in concern are:

Economy, 25 to 51%
Immigration, 22 to 45%
Housing, 13 to 21%

This ties in with what has been discussed QT several times since the last election. Tories allowed 6.5 million into the UK, but only 16% (1 million) had work visas. The other 5 million add pressure to housing and don’t contribute.

The largest decreases in concern are:

Brexit, down from 62% to 12%
Environment, down from 26% to 17%

@DuncinToffee

That poll must hurt you true believers

The only polls that carry are those where everyone who is entitled to vote is invited. However, if you are convinced that the opinion of a few thousand can be extrapolated to reflect 45 million registered voters, take a look at the statista trends from 2018 to 2025.

@SerendipityJane

Some thought James O’Brien got the better of both Jacob Rees-Mogg and Farage. However, the UK still left the EU. So, what point are you trying to make?

I have just discovered - to my mild surprise - that it's possible to pull a muscle yawning.

Who'd have thunk it ?

I once partially dislocated my jaw yawning, so I believe you.

The cure for that is a few minutes on FWR. That forces the jaw shut.