Brexit MegaThread - part 14

[Peregrina]

Thread 13. We had a debate about whether there should be a new one but if no one answers this the whole series after 8 years plus will come to their end.

Brexit happened, although one time Leavers do not seem to appreciate this.
It's worth noting I think that Brexit was a Tory initiative and the Tory party has just received its worse electoral thrashing since 1832. Could it be entirely unrelated?

What next? A gradual rapprochement with the EU? A Norway style agreement?

The problem with that little fictoid is it runs counter to the strained protests of Brexiteers that it wasn't about immigration.

One of the reasons the Tories were absolutely insane to pick up - let alone drain - the toxic grail of Brexit was that it was the bastard child of a bastard campaign where people were allowed to be dishonest to themselves.

So having chosen Brexit the tories had to "make it work" whilst being unable to tackle the one metric that Leavers would accept as proof it was working.

On the countless threads in this forum, time after time, there was an influx of Leavers. And every single time - without exception - after continued engagement and probing every single one basically boiled "their" Brexit down to "less foreigners". Admitted there were some very creative and clever ways of using words to hide that. But they inevitably became "I'm not racist, but ..."

But, unhindered by any suggestions of foresight, caution, or concern for the UK, the Tories sprinted to pick up the false grail. And fans of documentaries about the holy grail will recall the ending of "Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade"

If I were a true-blue Tory, I would be incandescent with rage at how a bunch of jumped up hucksters (without a shred of breeding) were allowed to drive the most successful political machine the world has ever seen to the depths of desperately having to flog tableware on an entertainment channel that has "News" in its name.

A local shop has a Brexit benefits special today.

@GlobeTrotter2000 because in 2017 people (the electorate) were still being conned by the 'oven ready deal' mantra and the millions of pounds per week we would put in the NHS - ALL WERE LIES.

The MPs were either shitting themselves that they would lose their jobs if they voted against 'the will of the people' (who were lied to) or they felt duty bound to vote in favour of this as a referendum had been held.

@GlobeTrotter2000 please use critical thinking skills. Please use your knowledge now to contextualise past events and what was happening at that time. People were lied to.

@GlobeTrotter2000 I implore you to list what you think has gone really well since Brexit - when the actual exclusion laws came to pass on the 31/1/2020.

What has been so amazing about the last 5 years that it was worth it?
Do you honestly believe Brexit has been great for the UK?
What will replace the 4% GDP that we have lost since leaving the EU?
Or do we have to be poorer forever and that's a price worth paying?
Are you happy with the legal immigration figures?

I would love to know all of the above from any Brexiteers who still believe it was the right thing to do.

Not paying into the EU budget is a positive
Ending free movement is a positive
Removing old EU laws is a positive
Making our own trade agreements is a positive, but we actually need to do it.
Replacing the 4% GDP either comes from other trade deals or it doesn't. I pretty much don't care. Growth of the kind we get now just means we're fucking up the planet even faster. We need to consume less.
Is being poorer forever a price worth paying? Well, it's not a price we need to pay, we need merely to reorientate our supply chains away from expensive EU markets towards cheaper ones including more domestically. That said, if that really is the deal, 'permanently poorer but outside the EU' I'm taking that every day of the week.
Am I happy with the legal migration figures? I'm not happy with any recent migration figures but they are what the current and former governments have desired them to be. The last government getting summarily thrown out back in July partly due to their falure on this.

Growth of the kind we get now just means we're fucking up the planet even faster. We need to consume less.

I agree with that. Always have as any "AI" bot that has read my posts would confirm. However that really doesn't suit the perceived wisdom.

@LouiseCollins28

Good post.

To all those who cling to the alleged 4% drop in GDP, be reminded that the so called UK experts said that would have happened by Q3 of 2018, but did not.

If you read the article link provided by Duncin about the report prepared by Professor Anand Menon, it records:

The forecasts made by remain never became true.

The forecast 4% is questionable based on how it was calculated and that both Germany and France have underperformed even though they are in the EU. So, other factors are at large.

@SerendipityJane

Control of immigration was part of the Brexit goal. This was confirmed on the QT episode 23 June 2023 by Professor Anand.

JRM confirmed on QT that Conservatives had failed and they deserved to lose the election.

What is the name of the shop that had empty shelves titled hard to find items? Where in the photon does it use the word Brexit?

@Pipsquiggle

You make reference to 2017, but omit the fact that if people thought they were lied to they had the power to cancel Brexit by voting for the LibDems in 2019.

Whilst you may think people were lied, the majority did not. This is evidenced by fact that none of the last three general elections have been won by parties who want to rejoin the EU.

@Peregrina

Watch late 2024 episodes of QT. Immigration being out of control has been acknowledged by all major parties. Likewise if you look on statista, immigration is considered to be one of the biggest issues facing the UK.

That immigration is a big issue for many is not disputed. It's the claim that it was why the Tories lost. In my constituency and the neighbouring one it wasn't - the Tories were squarely beaten by Lib Dem candidates, with Reform nowhere.

For other constituencies Reform votes siphoned off Tory votes causing the Tory candidate to lose, and since for many Reform = anti immigration, it could be said to be a factor.

Not paying into the EU budget is a positive - why? Due to leaving and not being part of the EU, the vast majority of us are poorer

Ending free movement is a positive - why? I was able to live and work in Europe very easily, now I can't. Our closest neighbours can't come here. Instead, we are getting sky high immigration from further afield

Removing old EU laws is a positive - why? Which specific EU laws being removed have benefitted you? It is much harder for us to trade with our closest neighbours

Making our own trade agreements is a positive, but we actually need to do it.
Replacing the 4% GDP either comes from other trade deals or it doesn't. - Why? I work in an industry that everyone needs and the increased legislation has made everything harder and more costly for UK consumers. No trade deal or mutliple trade deals will ever make up for losing the free trade from our closet, largest land mass

We need to consume less. - Yes I agree, which, if this was the purpose of Brexit (which it wasn't) is succeeding as everything is more expensive so people have to be more choosy on what they spend their money on

Is being poorer forever a price worth paying? Well, it's not a price we need to pay, we need merely to reorientate our supply chains away from expensive EU markets towards cheaper ones including more domestically. - Why? Our supply chains from our closet land mass is far cheaper and less damaging to the environment than air & sea freight. Road freight was the cheapest and is becoming cleaner, faster due to battery vehicles

That said, if that really is the deal, 'permanently poorer but outside the EU' I'm taking that every day of the week. - Why? What's so great about being poorer due to not having close ties with your neighbour

Am I happy with the legal migration figures? I'm not happy with any recent migration figures but they are what the current and former governments have desired them to be. - I'm not either, however, the recent immigration figures are sky high, have nothing to do with Brexit. Governments already had the power to control immigration whilst we were in the EU but chose to do nothing. We didn't need to leave the EU to put more stringent border controls into force.

So @LouiseCollins28 , I completely disagree with @GlobeTrotter2000 . Your post is all bluster, no facts and an homage to Farage rhetoric. No doubt @GlobeTrotter2000 will now pull out a quote from 2017 to disagree with all the above

Brexit was the biggest act of self harm that this country has ever done to itself. I refer you to my previous graphs and news reports.

...

@Peregrina

“Reform = anti immigration”

incorrect statement. Watch Farage on the 5 December 2024 episode of BBC Question Time.

He stated that when immigration was measured in the 10,000’s and consisted of people who contributed to the UK it was okay. Alastair Campbell, a remain supporter, agreed that immigrants should only be allowed to enter the UK if they were working.

@Pipsquiggle

Due to leaving and not being part of the EU, the vast majority of us are poorer

If that’s correct;

why didn’t the vast majority vote for the Liberal Democrat’s in 2019?

Why did rejoin the EU parties not win in 2024?

Ending free movement is a positive - why? I was able to live and work in Europe very easily, now I can't.

I have worked in the EU since 2020 more than anywhere else in the World. As a UK citizen I can be in the EU for 90 days per 180 days.

This is done by flying in Monday morning and flying out Thursday evening. I can easily work 40 hours in that time period.

The French Oil Operator, TotalEnergies, has offices in London. The French staff rotate in and out in a similar manner.

increased legislation has made everything harder and more costly for UK consumers.

the additional legislation has greater impact on the EU as they sell more to the UK than the UK buys from the EU.

why didn’t the vast majority vote for the Liberal Democrat’s in 2019?
Because we hadn't left the EU then and felt the after effects

Why did rejoin the EU parties not win in 2024?
Because we have a first past the post voting system making it virtually impossible for a third party to win. The Lib Dems increased their seats hugely and have got over 70 seats so did significantly better in the last election.

I have worked in the EU since 2020 more than anywhere else in the World. As a UK citizen I can be in the EU for 90 days per 180 days.
This is done by flying in Monday morning and flying out Thursday evening. I can easily work 40 hours in that time period.
The French Oil Operator, TotalEnergies, has offices in London. The French staff rotate in and out in a similar manner.
So you admit it's a lot more complicated and prohibitive to people moving abroad to work. Your work timetable and your colleagues sounds a complete ball ache TBH and very disruptive if you have family commitments

the additional legislation has greater impact on the EU as they sell more to the UK than the UK buys from the EU.
That's just bollocks as the UK is now a much smaller market than the EU.

@Pipsquiggle

Not paying into the EU budget is a positive - why? Because it costs UK taxpayers less money than they would otherwise be paying. FACT.

Ending free movement is a positive - why?

I'll try and do all the 'immigration' stuff here. Because it means that people elected solely in the UK can control migration into the UK. That, at least is a fact.

That they've not done so, to date, is their fault, not that of the EU or anyone else. Same applies for non-EU migration.

The deal offered to Cameron pre-ref was totally useless on this. We could potentially have implemented other controls but they were part of an EU directive so could be changed by the EU, and also would have required essentially an ID card system, something to which I am vehemently opposed as it is antithetical to a free society. 'their rules' is no solution whatever. Better off out.

Also, I look forward to seeing if the government formed after the next election are keener to exercise that control than the last one, or the current one. If Reform have lots of MPs, I suggest whoever forms the government will need to grip this issue pretty damn quick.

Why? Our supply chains from our closet land mass is far cheaper and less damaging to the environment than air & sea freight. Road freight was the cheapest and is becoming cleaner, faster due to battery vehicles. I actually don't believe that. For the same product, getting it from closer might be cheaper than further away. For comparable products we could just to be using the cheapest supplier (that'll mostly be China/India, etc...) In a zero tarrifs situation Chinese goods would be cheaper than EU ones. Even more so if we apply tarriffs to goods from the EU, but don't on goods from China.

That said, if that really is the deal, 'permanently poorer but outside the EU' I'm taking that every day of the week. - Why? What's so great about being poorer due to not having close ties with your neighbour.

If your neighbour is in a relationship of coercive control with you, it's best to end relations with that neighbour. They EU are not 'friends' of Britain, they've not even been good neighbours mostly, nor have many of the EUs member states. We should forge alliances with countries who want partnerships with us, not coercive control and using us as a cash cow.

Vehemently oppose ID cards, do you have a drivers licence? Did you vote, show ID when buying alcohol?

I don't now oppose ID cards as such.

I would object to the sort that Tony Blair wanted to introduce which would have been invasive and expensive, but a simple card with name, address, photo, DOB would suffice for so many of the purposes where we are now expected to produce some ID.

Also you could make legislation to state that the Police did not have the right to demand to see ID on a whim. Which is why the wartime/post war ones got abolished.

@LouiseCollins28 I don't know where to start. Do you fact check? Do you critically analyse people's positions and their motives?

Not paying into the EU budget is a positive - why? Because it costs UK taxpayers less money than they would otherwise be paying. FACT. -
Oh dear, no it doesn't. And you writing 'FACT' doesn't mean that it is factual or true. We are still paying the EU billions of ££ due to the withdrawal agreement. Also you are refusing to take on board the wider impact on trade and GDP. So let's say you are right, we pay less to the EU, our growth is poor because we don't have free trade with our closest land mass so everything is more expensive - it's cyclical

Immigration - I actually think we agree here, you say above
I'll try and do all the 'immigration' stuff here. Because it means that people elected solely in the UK can control migration into the UK. That, at least is a fact.
That they've not done so, to date, is their fault, not that of the EU or anyone else. Same applies for non-EU migration.
So you concede that the UK always had the power to control its borders and that had nothing to do with the EU, this is the law:
“Where admission is permitted, an EU citizen may remain in the UK for up to three months from the date of entry, provided they do not become a burden on the social assistance system of the UK.
If an EU citizen does not meet one of the requirements for residence set out in the Directive [employed, self-employed, self-sufficient, student] then they will not have a right to reside in the UK and may be removed.”
The UK is free to implement this policy as it sees fit, and yet it does not, while other countries – including Belgium and Italy – use this legislation to repatriate thousands of EU migrants each year.

So why would leave the EU over something that successive governments have failed to implement - we always had that power. Why leave a trading block over immigration that we always had the power to implement?

Why? Our supply chains from our closet land mass is far cheaper and less damaging to the environment than air & sea freight. Road freight was the cheapest and is becoming cleaner, faster due to battery vehicles. I actually don't believe that. For the same product, getting it from closer might be cheaper than further away. For comparable products we could just to be using the cheapest supplier (that'll mostly be China/India, etc...) In a zero tarrifs situation Chinese goods would be cheaper than EU ones. Even more so if we apply tarriffs to goods from the EU, but don't on goods from China

So this is where I pull rank @LouiseCollins28 I have worked in buying, grocery retail and far east sourcing for over 30 years. I know about logistics, about freight, about costs, about getting stuff on a boat from China to the UK. I've even product engineered items so that we can get maximum efficiency from a 40ft container. I know that trunking goods on road is cheaper /quicker/ more environmentally friendly.
So unless your 'beliefs' usurp my 30 year career you are just absolutely wrong

That said, if that really is the deal, 'permanently poorer but outside the EU' I'm taking that every day of the week. - Why? What's so great about being poorer due to not having close ties with your neighbour.
If your neighbour is in a relationship of coercive control with you, it's best to end relations with that neighbour. They EU are not 'friends' of Britain, they've not even been good neighbours mostly, nor have many of the EUs member states. We should forge alliances with countries who want partnerships with us, not coercive control and using us as a cash cow.

How was the EU coercively controlling us? How? We were one of the few countries that had power of veto. We had our own currency. How were they not good neighbours? We had free trade with them, freedom of movement. We had benefits.
Genuinely @LouiseCollins28 where do you get your information from? All of the above are just Daily Mail / Farage tropes - all of them lies.

Funnily enough I used not to oppose them, I used to be in the camp of 'if you've nothing to hide, you've nothing to fear'. However trust level in government and even trust in the police has diminished hugely since then I'd day.

Yes I do. All things that should require proof of ID to be doing so carrying them has a purpose. Simply existing in a free society should not require this otherwise were at the modern version of "Where are your papers please?"

@LouiseCollins28 on the ID cards, I am undecided - you make some good points.

I think with so many democracies seemingly becoming more authoritarian (US/ women's reproductive rights / putting autocratic billionaire in charge of government departments etc), I get worried about that aspect.

But then again, because so much of my life is already online, if 'the state' really wanted to go after me, they probably have access to all that info anyway.

I'm with Peregrina on ID cards - as long as they are simply that to allow you to prove your ID when necessary and not used for any form of control, I'd be fine with them. But I certainly wouldn't have trusted the last government with them, and I'm not certain about this one.

One other point missed from Louise's screed on nonsense above;

Not paying into the EU budget is a positive - why? Because it costs UK taxpayers less money than they would otherwise be paying. FACT. -

Well, not as we now have to spend millions duplicating the organisations that set the standards (which, surprise surprise, we're keeping exactly the same as the EU in virtually all sectors), and police everything to make sure it meets those standards. Particularly as we're not doing it anywhere near as well...

ID cards are perfectly sensible.

The uber-database the last attempt to force them onto us wasn't.

Moreover the lies that were peddled to "prove" it was needed immediately signalled that there was a sinister agenda. Because there has never ever in the history of ever when the citizen has given the state more power and it has not been abused.

And right now, I am in the camp that feels we are being criminally shortchanged in the "social contract". As a society we have surrendered a lot of rights to the state and got fuck all in return.

Exactly what I have always thought.

I've been in the Gambia for the last two weeks.
Basic drivers licence style ID cards are mandatory
and make proving ID at the multiple police and military checkpoints a matter of seconds.
They also make proving ID for money changing a matter of seconds.
BUT

During my airport reading I caught up on back issues of the Economist.

By 2030, half of all school leavers in the world will be in Sub Saharan Africa.

Having seen the number of teenagers coming out of the schools there
I believe it !

@Pipsquiggle
I consume the largest range of media that I can, most of it pretty liberal. BBC, Guardian, all sorts of left leaning/liberal commentators on blogs/X...etc. I rarely read anything from the Daily Mail as much of it is behind a paywall.

Of course trunking goods by road is cheaper. I'd have thought rail was cheaper still due to the '50 containers, 1 driver' equation, but I don't know, so yes, very happy to defer to your expertise there.

I do think though that, if you want the cheapest product, that's still coming from China or India or somewhere else that is not the EU. It won't be the fastest for the reasons you mention, but I suspect it's still cheapest to buy.

@Pipsquiggle

why didn’t the vast majority vote for the Liberal Democrat’s in 2019?
Because we hadn't left the EU then and felt the after effects

But as per the UK treasury report, the UK was supposed to have suffered 500,000 - 800,000 jobs just by a vote to leave before anything had happened. Also, GDP was supposed to have shrunk by 4% by Q3 of 2018 which was whilst the UK was still in the EU. That forecast has now been moved to 2035.

So you admit it's a lot more complicated and prohibitive to people moving abroad to work. Your work timetable and your colleagues sounds a complete ball ache TBH and very disruptive if you have family commitments

No. Travel arrangements are made by client. Nothing complicated about booking a flight and hotel each week.

The French staff in the London office all had families in France. London to Paris is a one hour flight and again all arranged and paid by client.

the additional legislation has greater impact on the EU as they sell more to the UK than the UK buys from the EU.
That's just bollocks as the UK is now a much smaller market than the EU.

I suggest you discuss with @IItisymoi (based in France). They are always complaining about the extra paperwork

I do think though that, if you want the cheapest product, that's still coming from China or India or somewhere else that is not the EU. It won't be the fastest for the reasons you mention, but I suspect it's still cheapest to buy.

Exactly. The first company I worked for in the UK imported castings from Japan rather then buy them from Sheffield up the road as it was cheaper.

This is where the EU proves itself to be a two faced cartel. They don’t want cheaper goods coming into the block, but were happy to expand the bloc into the poorer Eastern European region to gain easy access to cheaper labour.

The EU big players have now realised it was mistake. Even Michel Barnier has warned France about a Frexit if France makes the same mistakes as UK regards immigration.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/feb/17/uk-marketplace-sellers-ebay-amazon-us-sales-donald-trump-import-rules

UK marketplace sellers face ‘second Brexit’ hit from Trump’s US import rules