Westminstenders: "They are ahead in the polls"

[RedToothBrush]

The nominations are in!

A reminder about polling...

... And its significance in this election.

In 2017 YouGov got it right. They did two types of poll. One was a general poll which was done on regional polling. Early versions of this during the campaign discounted the don't knows. Later ones guesstimated how the don't knows would vote. This polling turned out to be close to the result but not exact.

The other poll you Gov did was on a constituency level. It was right before the election and it proved to be the most accurate of all, until we saw John Curtice's exit poll (which was spot on).

This time around YouGov have just switched to a constituency version of their polling because its much more complex this time with various pacts in action. They will be promoting respondents on the basis of who is standing in their constituency.

I'm not aware of other pollsters and their methodology but YouGov is interesting because of how close they were to the result last time.

This time around we are also seeing the active use of polling to lead voters, rather than necessarily reflect it. The Lib Dems and Remain have done a lot in what they see as key marginals to aid their credibility as realistic challengers. It's a more sophisticated version of their infamous, 'Only the LDs can beat X here' barcharts of shame. But it's unlikely they will be the only ones to try and use the technique. They probably will just be a little more transparent about it.

John Curtice has gone on record as saying there are only two realistic outcomes for the election: A Tory Majority or a Hung Parliament.

For the Tories to win they need a significant lead in the polls. To be sure probably 10% lead because of the regionality and constituency anomalies. Anything less than 6 or 7 percentage ahead and it tips to a hung parliament. YouGov currently have them on 13pt lead... BUT that's without fully accounting for the 1/5 of voters who are currently undecided. Last time around those who decided at the last moment tipped heavily in favour of Labour rather than the Conservatives.

Who stays at home, or who spoils a ballot could have particular significance this time around as disenchanted voters are made up of a higher number of voters who do usually vote than usual and a broken tribalism. Thus making it more difficult to predict than ever before.

So be a bit wary of polls and what they show - and what they don't show...

Pmk

Ooooh!
I'm the 1st one

PMK

Thanks red

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I really would hope if no party gets a majority, that the parties come to their senses, and realise that the Public has no appetite for yet another election, and proposes a Government of National Unity. I think then we would need a compromise candidate for PM - not Corbyn, Swinson, or Blackford. Who? Well, let the parties who are prepared to work together put forward some names and let the MPs vote.

I also hope that Johnson loses his seat. A 100 majority against him would do nicely. I wonder if he would try to squat in 10 Downing Street?

Pmk

Pmk

Jumping on with a pmk.

Are we having manifestos in this election or not?!

PMK

I wonder what the Brexit party will do for a Manifesto?

Laura Hughes @laurakhughes
The Brexit party haven’t stood a candidate in Canterbury...

Paul Brand@paulbranditv
But the Lib Dems have. That Remain alliance is really playing a blinder.

The Remain alliance was set up because at the euros they'd have won more sears if they had been more organised...

Peregina they've said they wouldn't do one before.

Brexit party can promise a bag of gold and free unicorns for all.

The LDs also did replace the high peak candidate who tried to stand down to give Labour a clear run.

Today floods abound in the south, Johnson fled to Wells and Labour and the Libdems unite in their condemnation of the Tories on the NHS.

This from the Daily Mail, surprisingly

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7684723/Adopted-son-former-Tory-minister-jailed-killing-four-year-old-Alfie-Lamb.html

This is the BBC's take on it.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-50419697

Candidates have been released (probably not into the wild) in my constituency.

Was surprised to see no Brexit candidate, however, we have:

“Nice” young lady Tory, v popular here.

I think the fizz has gone out of Brexit anyway, and I am not getting the buzz for the GE either.

Very well engineered by someone somewhere. Methinks many are just jaded and may not vote at all now as the choices are so limited.

Although I would NEVER vote Tory, I hope they win and have to deal with this awful shit going forward. They deserve it now and need to pick up their own dirt.

I am not happy and I do not know who to vote for even now. That is going to be a dilemma for many I suspect. But anyway....

Just my 10c.

Place marking.

Thanks again Red

Who are the people advising Jo Swinson? Genuine question. Just wondering what sort of experience they have.

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Well in seats where it's close and the challenger is one you agree with, I hope that their electorate will use a bit of sense. It does happen in my constituency. I know people whose personal preference would be Labour, but it's a wasted vote, so they hold their nose and vote LibDem.

Whoops. Badly multitasking.
“Nice” young lady Tory, popular here, (although obviously not with non-Tory voters!) who voted remain in the ref but toes the party line (works under David Gauke I think).
Relatively unknown Labour candidate
Locally v liked Libdem.
No brexit candidate but one independent ex Brexit candidate who was denying a few days ago that he would stand down. Oops. Him standing as an independent but Brexity candidate may slightly split the leave vote.

No sign of a libdem/labour pact unsurprisingly, but the green candidate did stand down for the LibDems.

Hard to know how to vote tactically here. Labour did better in 2017, LibDems did better in 2015.

Still fuming with the LibDems over Canterbury. There is no need to do this.

It makes me wonder if the LibDems are actually as they claim - The Remain Party my arse

Ta

I’m still cross about Canterbury too but I reckon their party faithful will punish them and vote for Duffield.