Westminstenders: The end of tribalism

[RedToothBrush]

There are signs that traditional party alignment might well have broken.

The Tories have split, labour are pretending they have not.

The pattern so far seems to be closely following the EU. This favours a Tory majority.

A long way to go.

....and after independence, the Scottish people can vote for who the fuck they like

You could argue it's the best way to get rid of the SNP

@CendrillonSings

Actually, although I really don’t want Scotland to leave the Union, I don’t particular have a problem with allowing Scotland to vote again if there’s a groundswell for it.

Pretty my auld mammy is not Nicola's biggest fan. That said, she really does not approve of BJ!!

I’m sure some Remainer Conservatives will be tempted to go Lib Dem.
Absolutely. I don't want to risk no deal

I also think that the Tory surge in 2017 was a vote against SNP rather than a strong Tory vote.

Ruth Davidson was a strong character and undid a lot of damage from the Thatcher era. But that's gone now. I would be surprised if there was much goodwill remaining for the Tories at all

Jo Swinson is impressive, sane, and anti-socialist

Seems like the arch-leaver @CendrillonSings is JS’s biggest supporter on a page mainly populated by Remainers! How ironic!

No deal is not a risk now, it's a racing certainty. ERG suddenly supporting BJ WA, Brexit Company suddenly endorsing Conservatives, all the money riding on a no-deal currency devaluation, fucking obvious doesn't even come close!

Scottish Westministenders:

A Scottish Tory was claiming that FarâgeCorp stepping down in Tory seats would save nearly all of the 2017 Scottish Tory seats that they were expecting to lose this time

Do you think he is right ?

Nicola is my MSP and I've met her regularly (while she was canvassing and at school events) over the last 22 years since she first door stepped us in the 1997 GE campaign and she got dh (then dp) to start voting properly rather than just spoiling his vote: I've always been impressed by her.

Alex Salmond not so much.... (met him at a black tie event that dh was invited to for work).

But prettybird, even if you support Scottish independence, what do you think about the unique constitutional clusterfuck of the referendum being held and won under a Labour-SNP government? The SNP would negotiate on behalf of the Scottish government against a RUK government dependent upon SNP MPs for its own majority. Now, this might lead to a great deal for Scotland - it’s hard to see how it wouldn’t! - but the extent to which RUK would be handicapped by its own government is without obvious historical precedent. It would be like having Barnier and Juncker in the Cabinet as well as in their EU posts!

Some might love this outcome. But the net result for the RUK population would be to be sold out on an apocalyptic scale.

Seems like the arch-leaver @CendrillonSings is JS’s biggest supporter on a page mainly populated by Remainers! How ironic!

I didn’t actually vote Leave, I just accept it, but never mind. The level of hate Jo gets on here is indeed bizarre!

I no more want to leave the UK than leave the EU.

BigChoc - to use a good Scottish expression: Aye Right

(A double positive that equals a negative )

This Tory party is shamefully sleazy:

They take ½ million bungs from Russian donors
Squash an intelligence report into Russian meddling in the referendum and Uk GEs
Give out bungs themselves to the DUP and FarageCorp

Using the executive powers of the PM, using patronage and taxpayers money, all for party political purposes
What next ?

Well, we may see 2 peerages: Farage & Tice
(Tice may well be the brains of the outfit, because Farage sure as hell hasn't much)

Also Farage being appointed Ambassador to the US
... that position has been kept vacant for several months now .... just in case the Tories needed to suck up to Farage / Trump ?

Bigchoc I am remote now.

But I really can't see it.

Scots on the who are pretty moderate in their views.

Even though there is Nationalism it is different from English Nationalism.

Ruth won the seats. Bj will not be popular. Those seats won't be won.

I'm not sure about No voters. I know some I have spoken too are unsure - no to SNP, Labour or Tory. I suspect some will just not vote. Lib Dems may pick up some but it wouldn't surprise me if turnout wasn't the best.

I also wonder about turnout across the UK in this GE:

+Election fatigue: a 2016 ref nd GEs in 2015, 2017, 2019
+Everyone very busy with the Christmas buildup
+Cold weather keeping people indoors, also colds & flu

Is there voter fatigue / apathy or are they eager to vote again ?

It won't be a Labour-SNP Government . The SNP have made that crystal clear - but obviously people used to continual lies from politicians can't comprehend that .

But given that Scotland is supposed to be part of a Union of equals - I don't see what the problem is. Unless you're saying that WM should be mean to Scotland as it secedes

It's not as if we're wanting to have our cake and eat it.

BCF yeah I think there is. People are fed up with Brexit. But they don't understand that leaving with a deal is not the end. The media has a lot to answer for..............

In my constituency there is much anger at our MP in both sides.

I think he will win but I do think the BXP would have taken quite a lot of votes. I can't see all of them transferring to the Tory party. I think they won't vote.
Unless we have a UKIP candidate. Not sure how that will work.

The comments on Scottish Independence on here are a bit patronising.
It would be an economic disaster. Darien Scheme?

Patently not kept up despite hoping to:

My mum has promised not to vote Boris. She was shocked that he lied to the Queen. She liked Ken Clarke and the like. Not sure who she has voted for or will vote for in the past.

Interesting to hear opinions on Mansfield on Radio 4. Traditional mining town, UDM so worked during the 80s strike. Somewhere where the Brexit party could have done well.

I definitely think Indie2 needs a threshold to pass
Never again allow a major change that will divert the course of British history, just on a 52:48 vote

It won't be a Labour-SNP Government

Labour-SNP Confidence and Supply then, if you want to be precise. Unless you really think either that Labour will manage to win a majority on its own or that the SNP would refuse confidence and supply if they got their second referendum in return?

There is no good solution,
Most of us are struggling to find a least bad one, that won't be quite as bad, or last as long, as the other bad outcomes

That is the pitiful state to which the irresponsible Tory Brexit ref has brought the country

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/09/think-youll-dodge-a-painful-political-choice-youre-away-with-the-fairies-general-election

Cry #NeverCorbyn. Cry #NeverBrexit and you soon realise Britain is now a #NeverNeverLand of self-cancelling double negatives.

The only way, it seems, to stop one extremist in #NeverNeverLand is to vote for another.

The only way to save #NeverNeverLand from a rightwing disaster is to vote for a leftwing disaster.

If you believe in fairies, Peter Pan says clap your hands and Tinker Bell won’t die.
When set against what the British are being asked to believe in the general election campaign, belief in fairies sounds modest.

This site has been updated to include Miller’s advices; there are now 4!
I suppose (if you want to oust a Tory), it feels better to have four: even if they don’t all agree, you go with the majority. Say, if 3 out of 4 agree and recommend the same party, it looks a fair bet.
Who knows though? It depends on turnout...

On Uxbridge they all say the same!

www.livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/

I don't think Farage stepping down will save any Scottish Tory seats - I think Boris Johnson's behaviour has put paid to that, but what do I know. The nearest I got to Scotland was having a Scottish maiden name.

I actually don't disagree with you BigChoc - I even think it should be as high as 60:40

But thresholds have a bad history in Scotland when Labour rebels put a threshold into the vote on "home rule" in 1979 - so that even though a majority voted for it, it didn't reach the threshold of 40% because those that were against it encouraged people to boycott it of the electorate, so it failed. (as it happens, my vote counted as a No even though I couldn't vote a few weeks before my 18th birthday which, ironically, given my current position, I was happy about ).