Westminstenders: The end of tribalism

[RedToothBrush]

There are signs that traditional party alignment might well have broken.

The Tories have split, labour are pretending they have not.

The pattern so far seems to be closely following the EU. This favours a Tory majority.

A long way to go.

AIBU to think that unless the twatting LibDems (who've had my vote all my adult life) sort out a proper agreement with Labour in the next couple of days the ConBrex Party are going to win this?

BrexCon sounds better.

No - you can't assume that. There are too many "Don't Knows" to make polling reliable.

It is unfortunately looking like the Conservatives might be the largest party, but even with the hopefully reduced in number DUP MPs and fingers crossed no new BXP MPs, they may still not have enough to form even a minority government in parliament.

It really is still all to play for.

PMK thanks as always RTB & all contributors, still alternating between despair fear & hope.

Thank you @prettybird, I keep telling myself that and I’m glad I’m not whistling in the dark.

Much too early for anyone to give up hope .... or to count their chickens
(I'm counting weasels and there are far too many)

AIBU to think that unless the twatting LibDems (who've had my vote all my adult life) sort out a proper agreement with Labour in the next couple of days the ConBrex Party are going to win this?

Yes.... I’m no fan of the LDs, but they might as well disband if they do as they’d simply be Labour with a yellow rosette and risk losing all those votes from the many who’ll vote for them but hate Corbyn. The best they can do is give a nod and a wink to “friendly” Labour candidates and refrain from active campaigning in certain seats in return for something similar in return. Corbyn is just too toxic for too many people...

Tom Newton Dunn@tnewtondunn

No celebration in CCHQ on Farage's decision to pull out of Tory holds, I hear.

The Brexit Party's key threat to a Tory majority is in the 50 or Labour-held targets, where he could still do them serious damage.

< I'd assumed he'd stand down in those 50 too, but apparently not yet. Peerage to be signed in blood ? >

www.rte.ie/news/uk/2019/1111/1089967-uk-election-veterans/

The Tánaiste and Minister for Foreign Affairs Simon Coveney has described as "worrying" a reported plan by the Conservative Party that would prevent British soldiers from being prosecuted for crimes allegedly committed in Northern Ireland during the Troubles.

The British Conservative Party wants to end, what it believes are, unfair trials of veterans where no new evidence has been produced and the accusations have been questioned exhaustively in court.

(contd)

"If anyone wishes to vote for a party against self-ID, that's basically just UKIP" BigChocFrenzy

I think the Communists and the Whigs are also against self id. Not sure about the SDP (originals who refused to join the Libs).

Finding their candidates is something else again...

So Farage reckons he's getting a peerage, does he?!

Innocent, trusting soul, isn't he? Has he spoken to the DUP lately?

So Farage reckons he's getting a peerage, does he?!

Seems the convention of not talking about such has also been swept away. Just adds to the banana republic UK vibe

Oakenbeach Would LDems really suffer if they stood down in those seats ?

Brexit is the crucial issue this GE

I'd expect them to suffer more from angering left-centre Remain voters by letting in the Tories and enabling a hard Brexit

They need to do more than "give a wink" to a moderate Labour Remainer - most voters aren't watching closely enough to see any wink

If they only plan to attract ex-Tories, that's a very restricted voting pool

Better to try to appeal to both, but focus on keeping out the Tories, at least in seats with a Brexiter Tory candidate

I heard that on Radio 4 this morning. DGR It is worrying.

The sooner Northern Ireland is reunited with Ireland the better.

I honestly believe that the Tories want to break up the Union.

So Farage reckons he's getting a peerage, does he?!

Does that mean he'll be Lord Twat as opposed to being a common or garden twat?

So Nigel's decision is going down well then:

A former Brexit party candidate is defying Nigel Farage’s decision to step aside in Tory-held seats and will stand as an independent instead. Neil Greaves, from the Harlow constituency in Essex, criticised Farage’s approach: (from the guardian)

And another Brexit candidate who has been stood down won't now be voting in the election saying:

I couldn’t vote for those who are standing in my constituency in all good conscience. I couldn’t vote for Liz Truss (the local Conservative candidate and cabinet minister) because I do think the Tories have negotiated a terrible deal

I'm assuming there is a written agreement somewhere

Farage would surely recognise a fellow twisty weasel

How on earth did they reach that conclusion?!

Tice on C4 now.

No conversations with "ministers."

Lots of first-person, "I'm" doing this that and the other, indicating who is the organ grinder and who is the monkey.

Tice "Trusts" BJ

I'm still basing my voting decision broadly on this flowchart (with added Fuck Brexit) 🤷🏻‍♀️and to make amends, I'll privately flog myself with thorny branches for sacrificing my pure and lofty principles for crude practicality.

Unfortunately I am stuck in a loop between 'please consult tactical voting websites' and 'not sure' on that graphic!

Ah well. Hopefully it will become clearer nearer the time.

When are postal votes due to arrive?

Just received this email from Gina Miller's RemainUnited.org tactical voting website:

Today's announcement by the Brexit Party of a pact with the Conservatives in 317 seats means we have a fight on our hands!

That is why the RemainUnited.org tactical voting website launched yesterday is more important than ever.

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Tactical voting has the potential of wiping out a Tory majority
Tactical voting will likely return a minority three party coalition
The experts expect 15% of people to vote tactically but our commissioned research shows the number is closer to 50%
Unlike all other tactical voting websites, we have been 100% transparent and published our full methodology and data files
Inevitably certain political parties and individuals will be upset by our recommendations, but we are totally unbiased and unemotional. and are focused on winning.
There is a lot of work to do to drive traffic to the website, build confidence in our recommendations and continue polling and analysing the data and see how our modelling is learning and changing. We cannot do this alone and ask that you share and endorse our website as widely as possible, so that we all win.

All the work involved for the website to launch and the resulting costs have been covered by me but hiring respected experts, assembling and accessing high-quality data, building awareness and getting the message out far and wide is expensive. So as well as helping us share the website, I also ask that you consider making a donation at - ^chuffed.org/project/remain-united-tactical-vote^

There is no other choice left – we must win this battle to have a chance to fight another day. Unless we work together we cannot stop the Tory/Brexit Party madness.

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Gina Miller

Our mailing address is:
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Remain United is a campaign brand name of Centrum Campaign Limited - Company Number: 11247918. Centrum Campaign Limited was founded by Gina Miller in March 2018 and is registered with the Electoral Commission.

Would LDems really suffer if they stood down in those seats ?

Yes, they’d be painted as Labour stooges and risk losing votes in the seats they can win... With the exception of some 3 way marginals, by the time 12 Dec comes, the vast majority of people in marginal seats will know who the two “horses” in the race are, and if they’re pro-Remain and can stomach Labour, they’ll vote Labour... If they can’t bring themselves to vote for Labour in such a race, they’re not suddenly going to vote for them because the LDs have pulled out.

The same goes for BXP voters. If you’re such a rabid Brexiteer and/or Tory-hater that you’d vote BXP even in a marginal seat and risk Labour/LDs winning that seat rather than vote Tory, you’re highly unlikely to suddenly vote Tory! Why would you?! You’ll spoil your paper/not vote/vote UKIP.

I couldn’t vote for those who are standing in my constituency in all good conscience. I couldn’t vote for Liz Truss (the local Conservative candidate and cabinet minister) because I do think the Tories have negotiated a terrible deal

Makes my point.... people who have remained BXP supporters despite the Tories offering a very hard Brexit, and preferring to die on an altar of Brexit purity and risk returning a Labour or LibDem MP in their constituency, aren’t suddenly going to vote Tory!