Meet the Other Phone. Only the apps you allow.

Meet the Other Phone.
Only the apps you allow.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Brexit

Westminstenders: Dissolved.

952 replies

RedToothBrush · 06/11/2019 19:44

Parliament has formally been dissolved. We are now officially in an election period including purdah and spending limits. Not that all the parties haven't got campaign material out already to bypass the rules, making the rules a complete farce. And the government has made some very dodgy adverts about the fund for towns, 90% of which just happen to be marginals.

The Tory Campaign has got off to an interesting start with a dead cat dog whistle against Grenfell where many well educated people lived (Inc an architect), privately owned their property and just happened to be white. And fast asleep. I'm not sure about you but I don't tend to have huge amounts of 'common sense' when I'm snoring.

Apologies have of course been made. In true Trumpian / Bannon style. But the whistle was blown and made its desired point to its target audience. Expect many more examples before we get to the end of this campaign.

Of course the same day it was made public that the government have blocked the publication of a report into Russian Electoral Interference. Which is in no way connected to the massive amount of donations the Tory Party has been receiving lately and who Boris Johnson hangs out with.

This election is all about breaking 'The Red Wall' and the Tories taking Northern seats. So everyone between Birmingham and Cumbria is going to be particularly fed up by 12th December at people from London coming out with ridiculous stereotypes, and telling them how to vote. We await Corbyn and Johnson adopting flat caps and vowels whilst drinking a pint of bitter or mild.

As usual we've had the candidate selection process throw up a few curve balls including forcing cabinet minister Alun Cairns to resign as Welsh Secretary on the day the tories launch their campaign. Its become very clear from the list of Tory MPs who aren't standing that the party has officially split and 'one nation conservatism' is merely now a slogan Johnson throws around to pretend that the hard right of the party hasn't slung out or forced out all the moderates. On the Labour side we have the usual rows at factions in local parties fighting or being really upset at a London candidate being parachuted in.

Farage isn't standing but the Brexit Party apparently is, despite calls for an electoral pact with the Tories. Whether local parties get the memo from Leave.eu and CCHQ we will find out in time. The LDs, Greens and Plaid seem to be consolidating a Remain pact in some seats but this still splits the vote with Labour which will be a problem in some areas.

Johnson is apparently standing in Uxbridge. This does leave us with the possibility he could yet lose his seat. Swinson's seat is also far from a safe one. Corbyn will likely be safe but Islington did back the LDs as the 1st Party at the Euros with the assistance of some very pissed off Labour members.

Nothing is certain about the next 6 weeks apart from the fact it will throw up some shocks and leave us all shouting at the telly at some point.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
23
Alsohuman · 08/11/2019 21:53

It’s way too early for anything to be meaningful. We still don’t have a Labour candidate here or a BXP, even though apparently it’s a Brexit target seat.

Hoooo · 08/11/2019 21:55

But all the newly registered voters won't be doing yougov surveys....

ListeningQuietly · 08/11/2019 21:56

We all over think.

If one day you find yourself near to death but by some fluke the garden you are dying in has a friendly owner
the next day might be better
This was the next day

Be the next day

Westminstenders: Dissolved.
Hoooo · 08/11/2019 21:58

Awwwwww ❤

Violetparis · 08/11/2019 22:00

Red sorry if I am misunderstanding your calculations, why has UKIP and Change UK been added to Labour for the Euro elections ?

Mistigri · 08/11/2019 22:10

Red's figures are very interesting.

It looks like the yougov samples consistently contain "too many" CON+BXP votes versus the Euro elections.

Could be because Remain tories stayed at home in the Euros to punish their party but have returned to the fold.

Or could be that the "don't knows" are mainly LAB/LD/Green voters and this is inflating the Tory/BXP share.

BigChocFrenzy · 08/11/2019 22:11

Yep, I've quoted here before from that speech by Ike
He was superb

How could the GOP have plummetted from Jan 1961 when he left office, to Tricky Dicky in 1968, then ever downwards to the current abomination.

RedToothBrush · 08/11/2019 22:14

Violet, because for the most part all the other figures generally match up or in the case of Con/Brexit are aligned.

It looks like change UK and Ukip voters were largely protest voters at the euros who didn't want to go LD, Con, Brexit or Lab but will drift back to Lab for the purposes of a GE.

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 08/11/2019 22:18

Mistri I think the revealing thing is that the euros don't appear to be a one off just for the euros. It shows the way people voted in July is reflected in national politics too and this basis is ongoing to a greater or lesser degree.

If that's true, it does make it difficult to see how things can shift a huge amount towards a hung parliament. Yes there are the don't knows, but I wonder about how many of the don't knows will vote under the circumstances.

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 08/11/2019 22:19

red imo, having observed politics since the late 1960s:

for Tories, being in power is more important than agreeing on what to do in power
whereas Labour will fight so hard with each other about what to do that it often stops them getting into power

Tories cover up all the cracks
Labour scratch the scabs off

Violetparis · 08/11/2019 22:19

I would presume UKIP would go Brexit or Tory and Change would go Lib Dem, who knows though Confused. Labour look to have improved a bit since the Euro. The poll was done before the election was announced so wonder if that makes a difference too.

BigChocFrenzy · 08/11/2019 22:24

The 12 giant EP constituencies show the lack of overall change, but I'd like to see one of those huge polls YouGov did last GE,
to check how the vote is distributed in the 651 GE constituencies and hence how the seats are likely to go

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 08/11/2019 22:47

We have a High ERG Tory sitting MP here. His vote in 2015 was almost 15,000 higher than Labour's; in 2017 it was just over 6,500 higher. The Lib Dems were way down sixteen thousand behind Labour in 2017 -- maybe tactical voting will be on Labour's side there. UKIP and the Greens were both three thousand plus below that.

It's not exactly a marginal, but on that basis it is worth a solid try. The more younger voters, the better, I suspect.

(And hellfire, when we were deciding whether to live here we nearly moved to live in Dominic Grieve's constituency instead, and we'd have had a noble fight to wage just for once! Chance is a bitch sometimes.)

Random18 · 08/11/2019 22:53

And our credit rating has been downgraded.

You guessed it - Brexit

BigChocFrenzy · 08/11/2019 23:09

Hoey announced she won't be standing in NI, but she will be voting and campaigning there for Unionists - the DUP ?

So she's moved to live there now.

BigChocFrenzy · 08/11/2019 23:12

Another DUP money connection to Friends of Farage:

https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/politics/give-ian-paisley-money-says-top-brexiteer-arron-banks-1-9135654/amp?

Maverick Brexiteer Arron Banks is backing a fundraising effort which DUP MP Ian Paisley has organised for his own re-election campaign
– despite the fact that he is in one of Northern Ireland’s safest seats, with no expectation that he will lose.

Mr Banks, the controversial businessman who for years bankrolled Ukip and now funds Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party, has been close to Mr Paisley for several years.

On Wednesday, Mr Banks’ Leave.EU organisation tweeted to its 279,000 followers to advertise the MP’s fund-raiser which is on a crowd-funding website.

SwedishEdith · 08/11/2019 23:32

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges

Sky: “The Dover and Deal Conservative Association says Charlie Elphicke has stood down as party candidate for the constituency and his wife Natalie will contest the seat at the general election”. Go home 2019 general election, you’re drunk.

BigChocFrenzy · 08/11/2019 23:42

WIll Carrie be standing in Uxbridge if BJ screws up again ?

BigChocFrenzy · 08/11/2019 23:44

Beth Rigby@BethRigby

Former Justice secretary @DavidGauke^ stands down as a Conservative MP as his association selects a new candidate.^

No 10 refused to return the whip despite him voting for BJ’s deal and the programme motion.

Rudd, Stewart, Hammond, Greening, Morgan, Spelman & now Gauke gone

BigChocFrenzy · 08/11/2019 23:47

Nicola Sturgeon: Grin

"Jeremy Corbyn is someone who supports self-determination for literally every other country in the world.

It would be mighty strange if he didn't support it for Scotland."

TiddleTaddleTat · 08/11/2019 23:51

Bit freaked by widening of the polls. Labour support in the north seems to have lessened and people are switching to Tory.
Started out quite hopeful but desperately hoping we end up with anything but a Tory majority...

PeninsulaPanic · 09/11/2019 00:13

I don't know how polling is done - do they get a representative cross-section of society to take part, or is it mostly self-serving people with enough money, houses and cars to vote Tory without worrying about anyone else?

PeninsulaPanic · 09/11/2019 00:15

Sorry, I know this is a Brexit GE, but nevertheless... Angry

RedToothBrush · 09/11/2019 00:47

^The 12 giant EP constituencies show the lack of overall change, but I'd like to see one of those huge polls YouGov did last GE,
to check how the vote is distributed in the 651 GE constituencies and hence how the seats are likely to go^

The wiki on the Euro elections has the number of votes in each council area. My council has a couple of constituencies in it.

Looking through the list of councils what's interesting is where the LD vote is. It is pretty concentrated.

I know roughly how my council will split between the two constituencies. It looks as if the Ld do have the numbers to potentially win despite only just getting 5% at the last General. That surprised me.

Perhaps it shouldn't given that I know its a target LD seat.

The Conservatives have been tweeting about the LDs locally in a way which suggests they perceive them as a threat.

Realistically the numbers make the constituency a potential 3 way marginal which is a rarity. It was in 2010.

I think I said previously I expected the LD vote to be concentrated heavily in certain constituencies and near none existant in others. If it follows the pattern of the euros then holds out fairly well.

The euros have a real significance and importance as it has broken tribalism and now people can see it has an affect and seats that they might have voted tactically a different way are viable to vote another. That's important. Especially if we see polling for the LDs holding up fairly well (note at the euros they might have picked up more votes from EU citizens who can't vote in this GE too so current showings look good). However the LD vote collasped during the 2017 election due to the squeeze of the big two.

It does look that political realignment is partly happening, at least on a microlevel

If I spot anything else with polling I'll post it but this trend is one to watch.

OP posts: