Westminstenders: Dissolved.

[RedToothBrush]

Parliament has formally been dissolved. We are now officially in an election period including purdah and spending limits. Not that all the parties haven't got campaign material out already to bypass the rules, making the rules a complete farce. And the government has made some very dodgy adverts about the fund for towns, 90% of which just happen to be marginals.

The Tory Campaign has got off to an interesting start with a dead cat dog whistle against Grenfell where many well educated people lived (Inc an architect), privately owned their property and just happened to be white. And fast asleep. I'm not sure about you but I don't tend to have huge amounts of 'common sense' when I'm snoring.

Apologies have of course been made. In true Trumpian / Bannon style. But the whistle was blown and made its desired point to its target audience. Expect many more examples before we get to the end of this campaign.

Of course the same day it was made public that the government have blocked the publication of a report into Russian Electoral Interference. Which is in no way connected to the massive amount of donations the Tory Party has been receiving lately and who Boris Johnson hangs out with.

This election is all about breaking 'The Red Wall' and the Tories taking Northern seats. So everyone between Birmingham and Cumbria is going to be particularly fed up by 12th December at people from London coming out with ridiculous stereotypes, and telling them how to vote. We await Corbyn and Johnson adopting flat caps and vowels whilst drinking a pint of bitter or mild.

As usual we've had the candidate selection process throw up a few curve balls including forcing cabinet minister Alun Cairns to resign as Welsh Secretary on the day the tories launch their campaign. Its become very clear from the list of Tory MPs who aren't standing that the party has officially split and 'one nation conservatism' is merely now a slogan Johnson throws around to pretend that the hard right of the party hasn't slung out or forced out all the moderates. On the Labour side we have the usual rows at factions in local parties fighting or being really upset at a London candidate being parachuted in.

Farage isn't standing but the Brexit Party apparently is, despite calls for an electoral pact with the Tories. Whether local parties get the memo from Leave.eu and CCHQ we will find out in time. The LDs, Greens and Plaid seem to be consolidating a Remain pact in some seats but this still splits the vote with Labour which will be a problem in some areas.

Johnson is apparently standing in Uxbridge. This does leave us with the possibility he could yet lose his seat. Swinson's seat is also far from a safe one. Corbyn will likely be safe but Islington did back the LDs as the 1st Party at the Euros with the assistance of some very pissed off Labour members.

Nothing is certain about the next 6 weeks apart from the fact it will throw up some shocks and leave us all shouting at the telly at some point.

I’m thinking Brexit is more Macbeth than Animal Farm - all ambition and backstabbing. And it didn’t end well for Macbeth.

But who is Macduff?

Brigden is another politician with an out of his league good-looking east European wife.

He has the look of a car salesman

American Guy

Omg, yes!!

I'm ancient There have been quite a few Labour MPs over the years who have defected to the Tories
Hence obviously they campaigned for the Tories

iirc they've been nicely rewarded for it, typical bungs:

a junior ministerial post if still an MP
parachuted in to a nice Tory seat at the next GE
a non-ministerial tsar or whatever
a cushy directorship or two after strings have been pulled

OK some regional polls out from YouGov today. I cant compare all the YouGov regions with the European Elections but some do loosely correspond and they throw up some intriguing points.

North East, regional voting intention:
LAB: 32% (-23)
CON: 26% (-8)
BREX: 19% (+19)
LDEM: 15% (+10)
GRN: 7% (+6)

via @YouGov, 17 - 28 Oct
Chgs. w/ GE2017 result

European election
Brexit 38.7%
Lab 19.4%
Ld 16.8%
Green 8.1%
Con 6.8%
Ukip 6.2%
Change UK 4.0%

You Gov polling Brexit + Con = 45%
EuroElections result Brexit + Con = 45.5%

You Gov polling LD = 15%
EuroElections result LD = 16.8%

You Gov polling Lab = 32%
EuroElections result Lab + Ukip + change UK = 19.4 + 6.2 + 4 = 25.6%

You Gov polling Green = 7%
EuroElections = 8.1%

So you can see the movement (or where there isn't movement)

Next up the North West

North West, regional voting intention:

CON: 33% (-3)
LAB: 30% (-15)
LDEM: 17% (+12)
BREX: 14% (+12)
GRN: 5% (+4)

via @YouGov, 17 - 28 Oct
Chgs. w/ GE2017 result

European Election

Brexit 32.2%
Lab 21.9%
Ld 17.1%
Green 12.4%
Con 7.5%
UKIP 3.6%
Change UK 2.7%

You Gov polling Brexit + Con = 47%
EuroElections result Brexit + Con = 39.7%

You Gov polling LD = 17.1%
EuroElections result LD = 17%

You Gov polling Lab = 30%
EuroElections result Lab + Ukip + change UK = 28.2%

You Gov polling Green = 5%
EuroElections = 12%

I can do London, SE and SW I think too. I'll try and do shortly.

It makes for interesting reading...

I'm interested to read that Clarinova thinks it OK for the Tories to get up to all sorts of racist shit, but demands better of Labour

I have similar standards for all serious political parties
The Tories don't get a pass on Islamophobia just because you think they are living down to their morals

Past generations in the main parties - excluding the Farage ego vehicles - all expressed some very lofty & praiseworthy ideals

Sadly over the last 10+ years, none of the UK parties have lived up to those standards & aims, or indeed exhibited basic competence

Read about "SuperMac"Harold McMillan if you think Tory PMs were always heartless bastards
They weren't
( Also read about Eisenhower if you think all Republican Presidents were stupid evil bastards)

The idea that Johnson might have touched your Taytos
I'm suddenly thankful that my gut issues mean I can't eat tayto anymore

Cendrillon it surely hasn't escaped your notice that both those Labour MPs are hard Brexiters? Of course they're going to campaign for Boris!

When giving the FarageCorp figures compared to the 2015 or 2017 GEs,
it would be useful if pollsters used as baseline its previous incarnation, UKIP,
rather than showing a jump from zero

Farage seems to attract a particular section of the vote, whatever he calls his ego wank / party
Does the current FarageCorp have more or less a % than UKIP at its 2015 peak ?

@Redtoothbrush
Am I allowed to say how much those polls make me laugh out loud ....
Nominations have not closed ....
How many of those people saying they will vote BXP will not actually have the chance
because Farage has spent the money his folks gave him and at £500 in folding per seat, its an expensive game

This short video of Dominic Grieve chatting with Rob Castell (the LD candidate who stood down for him) is kind of heartwarming. Talk of cross-party moderates working together... hopeful.
Decency shines out.

mobile.twitter.com/DominicGrieve1/status/1191413629582749696

iirc, Labour said after 2017 that training from the Bernie Sanders campaign team helped them be more effective

Tories have the money for training like that, but not enough people available to train - and of course no help from Bernie

They probably have less than ⅓ of the number of party members that Labour have

• and most of those they do have are not of an age that can go tramping the streets for hours to convass, or that have good enough social media skills to be very effective there

It is unclear how much effect canvassing has in a GE, or if it all nearly all depends on the media and social media blitz from central HQ

Lewis Goodall@lewis_goodall

Friday night and sessions like this in Durham are happening across the country.

@PeoplesMomentum “persuasive conversation” sessions (based on Bernie Sanders 2016 campaign) to help train activists better engage with voters.

Whatever the national picture, Lab groundgame impressive.

Heartwarming video, Hester

I love to see compromise and cooperation breaking out, especially when it helps one of the few intelligent and capable politicians

Very well done to the LDem candidate for putting the country first and standing down so gracefully

I really, really hope Grieve gets elected

I am genuinely shocked that bridgen is canvassing alone.

Surely from a personal safety perspective/safeguarding that's not too clever?

Wouldn't a local party insist on 2 people?

Great video @HesterThrale
I wish that was happening up and down the country.
I've given Dominic's campaign a few quid as he won't have any party support behind him.

Hooo Would you fancy an evening tramping around with Bridgen ?
I expect they couldn't find any bugger daft enough

Good point!!

Had two very bright and perky labour canvassers at our house today. Both about 20. It was freezing cold !
Ours is a seat that the Lib Dem's are keen to take from labour
Anyone else had canvassers yet?

Haven't even got a labour candudate here yet

Whats interesting is YouGov havent used their normal regional areas, but seem to have used the Euro Election Constituencies....

LONDON

London, regional voting intention:
LAB: 39% (-16)
CON: 29% (-4)
LDEM: 19% (+10)
BREX: 6% (+6)
GRN: 5% (+3)
via @YouGov, 30 Oct - 04 Nov
Chgs. w/ GE2017 result

European Election
LD 27.2%
Lab 23.9%
Brexit 17.9%
Green 12.4%
Con 7.9%
Change Uk 5.2%
UKIP 2.1%

You Gov polling Brexit + Con = 35%
EuroElections result Brexit + Con = 25.8%

You Gov polling LD = 19%
EuroElections result LD = 27.2%

You Gov polling Lab = 39%
EuroElections result Lab + Ukip + change UK = 31.2%

You Gov polling Green = 5%
EuroElections = 12.4%

---------------
SE
South East, regional voting intention
Con - 41% (-13)
Lib Dem - 23% (+12)
Lab - 16% (-13)
Brexit Party - 12% (+10)
Green - 6% (+3)
via @YouGov, 17 - 28 Oct
Chgs. w/ GE2017 result

European Election
Brexit 36%
LD 25.7%
Green 13.5%
Con 10.2%
Lab 7.2%
Change Uk 4.17%
UKIP 2.2%

You Gov polling Brexit + Con = 53%
EuroElections result Brexit + Con = 46.2%

You Gov polling LD = 23%
EuroElections result LD = 25.7%

You Gov polling Lab = 16%
EuroElections result Lab + Ukip + change UK = 13.5%

You Gov polling Green = 6%
EuroElections = 13.5%

------------

EAST
East, regional voting intention:
CON: 45% (-10)
LAB: 17% (-16)
LDEM: 18% (+10)
BREX: 14% (+14)
GRN: 5% (+3)
via @YouGov, 17 - 28 Oct
Chgs. w/ GE2017 result

European Election
Brexit 37.8%
LD 22.6%
Green 12.6%
Con 10.2%
Lab 8.7%
Change UK 3.65%
UKIP 3.4%

You Gov polling Brexit + Con = 59%
EuroElections result Brexit + Con = 48%

You Gov polling LD = 18%
EuroElections result LD = 22.6%

You Gov polling Lab = 17%
EuroElections result Lab + Ukip + change UK = 15.7%

You Gov polling Green = 5%
EuroElections = 12.6%

------------

WEST MIDLANDS
West Midlands, regional voting intention:
CON: 43% (-6)
LAB: 23% (-20)
LDEM: 14% (+10)
BREX: 12% (+12)
GRN: 7% (+5)
via @YouGov, 17 - 28 Oct
Chgs. w/ GE2017 result

European Election
Brexit 37.6%
Lab 16.9%
LD 16.3%
Green 10.6%
Con 10.4%
Ukip 4.9%
Change UK 3.3%

You Gov polling Brexit + Con = 55%
EuroElections result Brexit + Con = 48%

You Gov polling LD = 14%
EuroElections result LD = 16.3%

You Gov polling Lab = 23%
EuroElections result Lab + Ukip + change UK = 24.5%

You Gov polling Green = 7%
EuroElections = 10.6%

----------------

EAST MIDLANDS
East Midlands, regional voting intention:

CON: 45% (-6)
LAB: 22% (-19)
LDEM: 15% (+11)
BREX: 12% (+12)
GRN: 6% (+4)

via @YouGov
, 17 - 28 Oct
Chgs. w/ GE2017 result

European Election
Brexit 38.2%
LD 17.2%
Lab 13.9%
Con 10.6%
Green 10.5%
UKIP 4.92%
Change UKIP 3.47%

You Gov polling Brexit + Con = 57%
EuroElections result Brexit + Con = 48.8%

You Gov polling LD = 15%
EuroElections result LD = 17.2%

You Gov polling Lab = 22%
EuroElections result Lab + Ukip + change UK = 22.2%

You Gov polling Green = 6%
EuroElections = 10.5%

--------------

WALES
Wales, regional voting intention:

LAB: 29% (-20)
CON: 28% (-6)
BREX: 15% (+15)
LDEM: 12% (+7)
PC: 12% (+2)
GRN: 3% (+3)

via @YouGov
, 31 Oct - 04 Nov
Chgs. w/ GE2017 result

European Election
Brexit 32.4%
Plaid 19.6%
Lab 15.2%
LD 13.6%
Con 6.5%
Green 6.3%
UKIP 3.3%
Change UK 2.9%

You Gov polling Brexit + Con = 43%
EuroElections result Brexit + Con = 38.9%

You Gov polling LD = 12%
EuroElections result LD = 13.6%

You Gov polling Lab = 29%
EuroElections result Lab + Ukip + change UK = 21.4%

You Gov polling Green = 3%
EuroElections = 6.3%

You Gov polling Plaid = 12%
EuroElections = 19.6%

------------

SCOTLAND
Scotland, regional voting intention:

SNP: 42% (+5)
CON: 22% (-7)
LDEM: 13% (+6)
LAB: 12% (-15)
BREX: 6% (+6)
GRN: 4% (+4)

via @YouGov
, 23 - 25 Oct
Chgs. w/ GE2017 result

European Election
SNP 37.8%
Brexit 14.8%
LD 13.9%
Con 11.6%
Lab 9.3%
Green 8.2%
Change UK 1.9%
UKIP 1.8%

You Gov polling Brexit + Con =
EuroElections result Brexit + Con =

You Gov polling LD = 13%
EuroElections result LD = 13.9%

You Gov polling Lab = 12%
EuroElections result Lab + Ukip + change UK = 13%

You Gov polling Green = 4%
EuroElections = 8.2%

You Gov polling SNP = 42%
EuroElections = 37.8%

------------

YORKSHIRE AND HUMBERSIDE
Yorkshire and Humberside, regional voting intention:

CON: 34% (-7)
LAB: 29% (-20)
LDEM: 16% (+11)
BREX: 14% (+11)
GRN: 7% (+6)

via @YouGov
, 17 - 28 Oct
Chgs. w/ GE2017 result

European Election
Brexit 36.5%
Lab 16.3%
LD 15.5%
Green 13%
Con 7.2%
UKIP 4.4%
Yorkshire 3.9%
Change UK 2.3%

You Gov polling Brexit + Con = 48%
EuroElections result Brexit + Con = 43.7%

You Gov polling LD = 16%
EuroElections result LD = 15.5%

You Gov polling Lab = 29%
EuroElections result Lab + Ukip + change UK + Yorkshire = 26.9%

You Gov polling Green = 7%
EuroElections = 13%

----------

SOUTH WEST
South West, regional voting intention:

CON: 41% (-10)
LDEM: 21% (+6)
LAB: 17% (-12)
BREX: 13% (+13)
GRN: 7% (+5)

via @YouGov
, 17 - 28 Oct
Chgs. w/ GE2017 result

European Election
Brexit 36.8%
LD 23.1%
Green 18.2%
Con 8.71%
Lab 6.5%
UKIP 3.5%
Change UK 2.8%

You Gov polling Brexit + Con = 54%
EuroElections result Brexit + Con = 45.5%

You Gov polling LD = 21%
EuroElections result LD = 23.1%

You Gov polling Lab = 17%
EuroElections result Lab + Ukip + change UK = 12.8

You Gov polling Green = 7%
EuroElections = 18.2%

-----------

Big spot from this?

I think for every constituency the LDs polling appears to be within the margin of error of being a repeat of the EU election....

And we are looking at a sizeable Tory Maj, because there hasn't been political shift since the Euros in July.

I won't get any canvassers
I have not done for years
although this seat has flipped twice since I moved here, my card is marked and they leave me alone

Also read about Eisenhower if you think all Republican Presidents were stupid evil bastards

He's one of the people I look up to - like JFK - who just said it.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chance_for_Peace_speech

Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed.

Should be up there with the Gettysburg Address as the most succinct statement a US president has made.

Read it, read it, read it, and then look around In the UK no soldier goes without bullets, we've just launched a brand new warship, rockets are launched remotely and yet we have foodbanks and children without shoes.

It looks a lot like Con voters who went Brexit Party have shifted back to the Cons in large numbers and those Cons who stayed home for the Euros in July do intend to vote in the GE. Possibly remain tories???