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Brexit

Westministenders: The weasel DIDN'T die in a ditch

975 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 28/10/2019 11:59

The EU has decided to grant the UK's request for an extension until 31 January.

This will be a "flextension",
i.e. if the WA is approved by the UK and EU Parliaments before that date, then we will leave earlier.

and .... despite all his blustering promises, the weasel BJ lives on,
preening his whiskers in self-love.

The more gullible Brexiters haven't yet twigged that he lies and lies.
And lies....

Meanwhile, another attempt by the UK to decide what to do:

From 2:30 pm today, MPs will debate whether to allow a GE on 12 December

This is a govt motion under the FTPA, which means BJ requires the votes of ⅔ of all MPs - that's 434

Hence he would need Labour support.

BJ's condition for a GE on this date is that MPs agree to pass the WA / WAB by 7 November,
which is the last day before Parliament would be automatically dissolved before the GE.

Corbyn said he'll only agree to a GE if BJ takes No Deal off the table.
This cannot be made legally binding, but as noone would take the word of a lying weasel, it is difficult for this condition to be satisfied.

Polls suggest that a GE after Brexit would be likely to give the Tories significantly more votes & seats than a GE before.
Both Labour & Tory want to game GE timing to their advantage.

Also, most Labour MPs are opposed to a GE after Brexit, for fear of losing the votes of millions of angry Labour Remainers - and their own seats.

A few on the Labour left do want a GE asap,
but Nick Brown, Labour’s chief whip, has warned Corbyn that many MPs would disobey orders to vote for 12 December.

Hence, BJ is expected to lose yet another HoC vote.
If so, reports suggest that the Cabinet are split over what to do next:

Some ministers, e.g. Gavin Williamson, want to agree to the SNP / LDem proposal to hold a GE on 9 December.

This would be via an amendment to the FTPA or a separate 1-line Act
and hence would require only a simple majority of MPs present
It would also be the last chance logistically for a GE before mid-February.
BUT
would require BJ to abandon attempts to pass the WAB before this.

Also, such a bill would be amendable and Tories fear the type of amendments could be added
e.g. a CU, or votes for 16-year-olds.

Hence other ministers and the Tory chairman James Cleverley oppose this idea.

It is unknown how BJ will decide.
His record is of aggressive bluster, then caving in at the last moment, while pretending he has won.

The EU have saved our bacon yet again, but may be running out of eye rolls "Please don't waste this time"

OP posts:
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mrslaughan · 29/10/2019 07:20

Has Bercow said he will allow the bill? Shouldn't they have to repeal the FTPA?

I think the country should be outraged that they won't bring the WAB back for proper scrutiny.

Dongdingdong · 29/10/2019 07:22

Has anyone thought of this ?

So we must never hold an election in the winter now? Confused

Maybe we should be careful about summer too, because you never know - we might get a freak heatwave like last year and it’ll be too hot for people to go out.

mrslaughan · 29/10/2019 07:24

I completely agree Berko - they should block the election ....... the more Bozo delays I think the worse it will look for him.
Opposition need to keep banging the drum for the deal to be brought back.

I know BCF thinks it can't be amended with things like a customs union - but if it was and passed - I personally think the EU would accept that. It moves is back closer to them and regulatory alignment. It makes the whole process back to front - but nothing about this process has been straight forward.

Basilpots · 29/10/2019 07:25

Would the new EU nationals who have Gone through the hassle of ‘settled status’ be able to vote ??

On that ‘Opinium’ poll they had people unregistered at about 10% and those unable to vote in GE at 5%.

chomalungma · 29/10/2019 07:25

So we must never hold an election in the winter now

It's a valid question - if there is a 'no travel' warning except for essential travel, what happens if there is an election on?

Motheroffourdragons · 29/10/2019 07:25

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TheMShip · 29/10/2019 07:26

DGR eyeballing the last ten years from www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/past-uk-weather-events I see about half of years have severe weather events in late November through December. Only one had any red warnings from memory, the flooding in late 2012, and that was fairly localized. Plenty of orange warnings, but worth remembering that orange can also mean very likely low level disruption as well as moderate chance of mid level disruption.

So I'd say it's not likely, but it's also not improbable, and should be planned for. More likely is weather affecting the ability of candidates to campaign in rural and remote areas.

chomalungma · 29/10/2019 07:26

He has got the bill through the 2sn reading and he got his Queen's Speech passed.

So he can hardly say that he can't get stuff through Parliament.

Basilpots · 29/10/2019 07:27

So we must never hold an election in the winter now?

Not unless we absolutely have to.

It’s only happened what once in recent times.

Why make life more difficult than it needs to be ??

Dontlickthetrolley · 29/10/2019 07:32

In 2017 on 10th December we had a lot of snow here, Midlands area, first proper snow in my 7 year olds life, at the time. Schools were shut on the 11th, but we were back for the Christmas play on the 13th.

Dongdingdong · 29/10/2019 07:33

Not unless we absolutely have to.

I think this is one of those times.

Bearbehind · 29/10/2019 07:36

I don't understand how today's bill that only needs a straight majority hasn't been used before then?

I don’t understand that either?

Desperation made them think of it when it happen been thought of before maybe ?

wondering7777 · 29/10/2019 07:39

Does anyone know what time they’re due to vote on the election bill today?

NoWordForFluffy · 29/10/2019 07:39

The problem - for BoZo - is that if he brings the WAB back with enough time for proper scrutiny, the opposition will amend the fuck out of it and he will instantly lose the support of his own MPs (particularly the ERG). That's why he won't bring it back. And the government controls parliament time.

There's no guarantee an SO24 would work to get the time that was needed either, for the opposition to get the required time.

If they managed to bring May's WA back instead, that may pass (but still needs the WAIB as well).

All of these shenanigans just go to show how Brexit is a bad idea as it just cannot get through parliamentary scrutiny (in its current form at least).

But there aren't the numbers for a PV or revoke in Parliament. There aren't the numbers for anything. It's broken.

I think the only time there'd be appetite for revoke is if we were staring down the barrel of the no deal gun on the day the extension expired without a further extension allowed and with no deal in place. That may change minds. While extensions are being given, there's no impetus to vote for it.

FUBAR.

NoWordForFluffy · 29/10/2019 07:41

I don't think it would've got through before now, to be honest. Desperate times!

Hoooo · 29/10/2019 07:42

Morning.
I'll have to content myself with the shitshow in HofC today as no - ahem - movement here yet...

DGRossetti · 29/10/2019 07:43

Has Bercow said he will allow the bill? Shouldn't they have to repeal the FTPA?

I have to admit that it seems a tad odd that it's possible for a regular bill to create an end-run around the FTPA, unless the FTPA explicitly allows it ? Is there a specified form, or process ? Otherwise it's the legislative equivalent of leaving your keys under the mat ....

Basilpots · 29/10/2019 07:44

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/29/uk-treasury-on-course-to-exceed-this-years-deficit-target-by-16bn

£27bn of spending “headroom” set aside by former chancellor Philip Hammond in March to cope with the costs of Brexit had evaporated over the last six months, leaving the government with a hefty deficit.

Spreadsheets Phils’ nest egg has already been blown.

DGRossetti · 29/10/2019 07:45

Dongdingdong

What an appropriate name for someone sounding like their bells been pulled ...

So we must never hold an election in the winter now?

Did I say that ?

Maybe we should be careful about summer too, because you never know - we might get a freak heatwave like last year and it’ll be too hot for people to go out.

Yes, dear.

wondering7777 · 29/10/2019 07:47

But there aren't the numbers for a PV or revoke in Parliament. There aren't the numbers for anything. It's broken.

Agree, which is why I think we badly need this election - whether Corbyn wants one or not!

Bearbehind · 29/10/2019 07:50

Agree, which is why I think we badly need this election - whether Corbyn wants one or not!

This - we can’t just carry on in this limbo - something has to change

Unfortunately that’s likely to be a Tory majority or a Tory / BXP coalition

Motheroffourdragons · 29/10/2019 07:51

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Dongdingdong · 29/10/2019 07:53

Did I say that ?

Your post implied it, absolutely.

And calm down, dear - it’s not even 8 in the morning!

Bearbehind · 29/10/2019 07:53

Now this is serious.

Joking aside, stuff like this is more likely to get through to Leavers about what a shite idea Brexit is than all the facts and figures you like

Remember the outrage when KFC ran out of chicken

Motheroffourdragons · 29/10/2019 07:54

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