Westministenders: The weasel DIDN'T die in a ditch

[BigChocFrenzy]

The EU has decided to grant the UK's request for an extension until 31 January.

This will be a "flextension",
i.e. if the WA is approved by the UK and EU Parliaments before that date, then we will leave earlier.

and .... despite all his blustering promises, the weasel BJ lives on,
preening his whiskers in self-love.

The more gullible Brexiters haven't yet twigged that he lies and lies.
And lies....

Meanwhile, another attempt by the UK to decide what to do:

From 2:30 pm today, MPs will debate whether to allow a GE on 12 December

This is a govt motion under the FTPA, which means BJ requires the votes of ⅔ of all MPs - that's 434

Hence he would need Labour support.

BJ's condition for a GE on this date is that MPs agree to pass the WA / WAB by 7 November,
which is the last day before Parliament would be automatically dissolved before the GE.

Corbyn said he'll only agree to a GE if BJ takes No Deal off the table.
This cannot be made legally binding, but as noone would take the word of a lying weasel, it is difficult for this condition to be satisfied.

Polls suggest that a GE after Brexit would be likely to give the Tories significantly more votes & seats than a GE before.
Both Labour & Tory want to game GE timing to their advantage.

Also, most Labour MPs are opposed to a GE after Brexit, for fear of losing the votes of millions of angry Labour Remainers - and their own seats.

A few on the Labour left do want a GE asap,
but Nick Brown, Labour’s chief whip, has warned Corbyn that many MPs would disobey orders to vote for 12 December.

Hence, BJ is expected to lose yet another HoC vote.
If so, reports suggest that the Cabinet are split over what to do next:

Some ministers, e.g. Gavin Williamson, want to agree to the SNP / LDem proposal to hold a GE on 9 December.

This would be via an amendment to the FTPA or a separate 1-line Act
and hence would require only a simple majority of MPs present
It would also be the last chance logistically for a GE before mid-February.
BUT
would require BJ to abandon attempts to pass the WAB before this.

Also, such a bill would be amendable and Tories fear the type of amendments could be added
e.g. a CU, or votes for 16-year-olds.

Hence other ministers and the Tory chairman James Cleverley oppose this idea.

It is unknown how BJ will decide.
His record is of aggressive bluster, then caving in at the last moment, while pretending he has won.

The EU have saved our bacon yet again, but may be running out of eye rolls "Please don't waste this time"

because no-one trusts him.

Johnson needs and trusts Cummings -whose contract was supposed to end this week.

Cummings and Bercow both going this week.I bet Cummings doesn't.

Clash It was a great point by Fluffy and very easy to miss within the thread. No need to be sorry. 🙂

I've been thinking about your point about MPs not understanding Brexit, and understanding too late, BigChoc.

I think you're so right about that.

It seems to me that MPs seemed to understand various issues just after the point where acting on them could have an effect.

So it's always seemed as though Brexit were an out of control vehicle, powering down a slip, with many MPs vainly running after it.

And I get a real sense that something changed in Labour a week or so ago, and they suddenly realised they'd lost control (call that a belated realisation, if you will).

I don't know if it was the implications of Johnson's Bill finally hitting home, a change in the Parliamentary numbers, news from Nrussels, or polling - but there was a shift.

Weird, really.

From the outside, it's looked like a mess for a king time.

Farrow and Ball offer Mark Francois a job as further Brexit delay sees his face turn a never-before-seen shade of puce

From Newsthump (of course!)

1st Nov signs still on the motorway signs on my way home as the radio was telling me the opposite.

Just wondered if anyone had posted this link. Not Brexity though

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-50206103

Tanith

I was just saying to dh that I bet Cummings had a Malcolm Tucker style rant at BJ for signing the letter back to Tusk accepting the extension.

I know I'm really good at firing off random thoughts that don't follow the thread.

But a lot of leavers perpetuated the view that the nasty mean EU was delaying and trying to keep us imprisoned in the lucrative trading bloc. I'd like to know if they admit they were wrong now given the flextension expressly says our exit date can be in 4 weeks or 8 weeks etc - before the 13 weeks are up contingent on getting the WA approved internally.

A few points about numbers for a GE.

The vote today had 299 votes for. This was made up of the Tory Party, most of the Independent Conservatives, the Kate Hoey Party, plus a number of ex-Labour leavers. (18 independents in total voted for a GE)

The Labour official position was to abstain. Yet there were 38 who voted against the Bill.

The DUP also abstained.

The SNP, LDs, Greens, The Original Tigger Group and 4 independents actively voted against the Bill. These 4 were Ken Clarke, Lady Harmon, Louise Ellman (who recently quit Labour) and the former LD Stephen Lloyd.

For the vote tomorrow the government just needs a straight majority.

This is very important. Today an abstention effectly, meant voting AGAINST an election because of the way the vote worked. Tomorrow that flips, and an abstention in effect is voting FOR an election.

This means Labour and the DUP can't sit on the fence and abstain if they don't want an election. That's important. Also there are quite a lot of Independents who are going to have to show their hand if they don't want an election.

Labours difficult issue is if they vote against an election the optics are bad for them. If the numbers are tight and it looks like it might pass rather than being seen to block an election they might vote for it rather than against it.

Thus tomorrows numbers favour the government.

Where it gets interesting is what the SNP do in terms of amendments with dates and particularly 16/17 year olds / EU residents.

The government have said they'll pull the election bill if votes for 16/17 year olds get bolted on to the election bill.

And if you were the SNP, LDs and Labour you'd either take that as a positive either to favour the demographics to you or to try to nobble the pre Christmas GE without being seen to nobble a pre Christmas GE.

So it's the amendments which are the thing to keep an eye on more than anything tomorrow. Not the actual numbers over whether it will pass or not. I am assuming it will pass for this reason (as a default assumption for trying to understand what's going on), and it's the details over what the amended bill says that's the important bit and what you should really be paying attention to.

I can't remember Blackford's exact words during his contribution, but iirc, I got the sense that he accepted that it would be too difficult this time to put 16 and 17 year olds on the roll in England, Wales and NI - even if they're already on the roll in Scotland.

But they might still put it forward on principle

BCF, no book isn't on my list. Tbh it doesn't appeal.

I'm not sure knowing 'the inside line' on what happened inside May's no 10 matters all that much. It's only the effects of those decisions that matter ultimately not the thought process behind them.

Some FT research which doesn't surprise me. Interesting to see.

It's Brexit extremism manifesting which is unhealthy where ever it comes from.

Which is depressing.

I hope the opposition parties amend the fuck out of that bill tomorrow, try nd tack on Eu citizen voting rights, votes for 16 year olds, some NHS protection that’ll teach the fucker

Anecdote time.

So local constituency I know well is currently Lab. It was previously Con not to long ago. It has a strong LD presence at local level and although they had a very good showing in 2010 the LD support has never really translated at a GE.

It is apparently just slightly pro-remain. But is most pro-remain in the most traditionally Conservative areas of the constituency.

And tonight despite the LD just about squeaking their deposit back in 2017 the local Conservative Party have tweeted something attacking the LDs in a big way.

On paper the LDs shouldn't even be on their radar for campaign strategy. And yet they seem to be very worried by them for some reason.

Equally I am aware the constituency LD party has been sending out correspondence asking for donations on a scale which is unprecedented ahead of a possible GE. They really aren't mucking about with what they plan to spend.

This ties in with a comment that I saw from a pretty LD leaning observer about another constituency

Mike Smithson @Mikesmithsonpb
The LDs seem to be spending big in a seat where they lost their deposit at GE2015 and got just 5.9% in 2017
www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/10/28/the-lds-seem-to-be-spending-big-in-a-seat-where-they-lost-their-deposit-at-ge2015-and-got-just-5-9-in-2017/

They are deadly serious about the next election. And their chances of doing very well indeed.

Also re student vote and timing of a Dec GE.

YouGov today observed this

YouGov @yougov
Parties that want the student vote are worried that an election date out of university term-time could see them lose university seats. But few students voted in their university constituencies in 2017 anyway - 70% voted in their home constituencies

I wonder what % of uni students actually voted

I may order the book, red - it's a lot more expensive than my usual scifi though !

I would find it useful / fascinating to understand how decisions were made by the PM and at Cabinet, that may change the fate of the Uk for decades

The pressures & influences exterted by and on the key players

It helps predict what the next decisions might be and maybe even how to influence them

It highlights weaknesses / failings
e.g. learning that BJ had to be constantly pulled up for not understanding the details shows he cba then - and probably cba now too.

I suspect the book could make me more angry and / or anxious though

I wonder if this SNP/LD election bill is the single cleverest thing done since the Referendum. Offer an election on a stipulated date that can’t be changed post legislation knowing it’s not a date the Gov want, let them change it to one they want but that makes no real difference (having trotted out disingenuous arguments on the Today prog about Uni students voting earlier rather than later), amend the bill left right and centre, sit back and wait. TBF LD and SNP are far better politicians than the main parties, they have to be. Agree that Cons should be running scared of LDs, look at all those LD gains in local by-elections. I wouldn’t be surprised if they’ve only just noticed.

So, (assuming we get) a December 12th Election then ?

Preceding week, Met Office start issuing warnings for storm Dennis, Ellen, or Francis.

December 10th they upgrade them to yellow.

December 12th they upgrade them to red: "loss of life possible" and advise all but essential travel be cancelled. Railways are affected. Motorways and local roads too.

Has a UK election ever been cancelled or postponed once triggered ?

What is the protocol for such ?
]
Do we end up lumbered with Boris as PM to an empty government ?

Has anyone thought of this ?

With the obvious nod to the unpredictability of weather, what's the historical likelihood of a sever storm hitting the UK December 11-13 ?

TBF LD and SNP are far better politicians than the main parties, they have to be.

Citation needed as far as the LD's are concerned, most of their current MP's were voted in on different manifesto, and chukka ummuna nuff said

Citation needed as far as the LD's are concerned

It's called opinion. I believe we're still entitled to that, even if you don't share it.

Maybe there should be a 'minimum' turnout for an election?

Or a minimum turnout in a constituency for an MP to be returned?

Just putting ideas out there in case of 'something' happening for an election to be affected.

I think we need @OhYouBadBadKitten to give us historical December weather stats!

Morning all. I don't know that an election will solve anything and just uses up valuable time that should be spent sorting brexit. I'm all for giving 16 and 17 year olds the vote and I assume EU nationals will be able to vote in a GE?

Most EU nationals CANNOT vote in a GE - exceptions being those from Ireland (and also Malta and Cyprus?)