Westministenders: Sub-Prime Minister at large

[BigChocFrenzy]

Our Sub-Prime Minister BJ is threatening a govt tantrum strike until he is allowed his Haribo GE on 12 December.

If MPs vote for a GE, he has promised them "more time" to debate the WAB,
but that would only be from 29 October to 7 November

• ridiculously inadequate for such complex legislation -

before Parliament is automatically dissolved for the 25 sitting days before a GE.

The GE debate starts Monday 2:30 pm in the HoC
Corbyn says he'll agree to a GE if BJ takes No Deal off the table

BUT wIth this WA,
No deal cannot 100% be taken off the table whilst the Tories are in office:

they could still No Deal after transition ends on 31 December 2020,
if they don't request a transition by July.

We don't know when the EU will give their decision on an extension, or what it will be:

The EU may decide only after the HoC vote
- in which case MPs would be voting "blindly"

Tusk, Merkel & most other leaders want to grant the Flextension until 31 January,
but Macron & a few others want to give a short extension of only 2-4 weeks, to pressure MPs to pass the WA in November

• in which case the GE would take place shortly after Brexit, which would be a gift to BJ.

A 12 December GE would also cause serious logistical problems for local council officials:

Apart from their poll station bookings clashing with Xmas bookings for church halls & schools,

they are legally required to send out all the polling cards based on the current electoral roll,
then at the GE, check names against the new electoral roll which must be updated on 1 December

The Rebel Alliance want a long extension, so they have time to add amendments to the WAB,
e.g. a CU, the Level Playing Field agreement in May's WA, maybe even a PV
So many may want to vote against a GE before that ..... but what does Corbyn want ?

BJ as PM could still change the date of any GE after he has agreed to it, if it suits him.

What does BJ want ?
Alice Cooper said it:

"I'm your top prime cut of meat, I'm your choice
I wanna be elected
I'm your yankee doodle dandy in a gold Rolls Royce
I wanna be elected
Kids want a savior, don't need a fake

I wanna be elected
We're all gonna rock to the rules that I make
I wanna be elected, elected, elected..."

m.youtube.com/watch?v=cSvy8HpxFxo

• Post edited to correct dates

BoZo going for the LD idea? What's behind that move? 🤔🤔

I can't work that out. But bugger it!

Might be missing something but the LD idea seems like a win win for LDs and Tories. Labour likely to be decimated.
LD get remainer voters off labour.
Tories would win, especially if deal done with Farage.
And there'd still be a possibility of a no deal Brexit.

Much of the anger displayed in the Commons is so evidently fake that I don't think it convinces anyone other than those who want to be convinced. On occasion, when someone is really, passionately angry, it can come as a shock.

I read something yesterday about an opinion poll that put Labour in the lead.

But now l can’t bloody find it😡

Why are the SNP, in particular, pushing for a Dec election?
Is it because they think BJ will win, and a No Deal is then more likely, which in turn makes a 2nd IndyRef more likely to go Yes?

No, because they have the same opinion as some of us that a post-delay, pre-Brexit GE will be worse for BoZo than a post-Brexit GE as the vote will be more split with the BXP.

@ARoomWithoutADoor , I imagine that SNP are calculating that whichever way it goes, particularly if their votes are needed (which is likely), Indyref 2 will be on the cards.

I don't fancy a GE at any time as it will be shit, but agree it is likely to be more shit for Johnson before Brexit and after he has failed on his 31st October promise.

The Labour party needs to sort itself out and get its act together!

In other news:

GRENFELL INQUIRY INTERIM REPORT – WHAT WE FEAR by grenfellactiongroup

Emma Dent Coad MP for Kensington

Press release for immediate publication

As we head towards the date of publication for the Interim Report of the Grenfell Tower Fire Public Inquiry, on Wednesday 30 October - a moment of reflection.

I remember in October 2012, when after years of lobbying by residents in cold, damp flats with dodgy lifts and heating and hot water system constantly breaking down, the Council and TMO announced a major refurb of Grenfell Tower. I was leaving KCTMO Board after four years, and this overdue investment was welcomed by residents at the time.
Between then and 14 June 2017 were five years of meetings, negotiations, consultations, design decisions, planning decisions, contracting, commissioning, estimating, re-estimating, materials decisions – ‘value engineering’ – and the work itself.

In 2015 a group of residents had been concerned about failures and delays in the process of the works, the noise and inconvenience, concerns about fire breaks, the position of boilers in hallways, exposed gas pipes, the loss of emergency road access, the loss of green space at Lancaster Green to build the school close to the Tower, and fears that the building itself may be dangerous post-refurb.

Rather than take residents’ concerns seriously, in November 2016 the Council sent a ‘cease and desist’ letter to the complainants, stating that they were frightening residents.

Six months later a fridge now deemed so dangerous it has been withdrawn from sale burst into flames, and fire services were called. Unknown to them the fire had burnt through a UPVC window frame and flames had begun to tear up the building fuelled by a devastating combination of flammable insulation and flammable cladding. Then -

• The stair lighting failed.
• The smoke vents failed.
• The fire doors failed.
• The fire breaks between floors failed.
• Badly fitting UPVC windows blazed and emitted deadly gases.
• The insulation and cladding failed, due to their combustibility and to poorly fitted breaks and gaps which acted like a chimney.
• The gas supply could not be turned off for 18 hours.
• And the ‘value engineered’ insulation (now banned) and cladding combination described as ‘solid petrol’ raged for hours.
• The devasting fire that had been predicted by residents turned a concrete frame building with fire safe compartmentation, where ‘Stay - - - Put’ policy had worked for 40 years, into a 24 storey bonfire.

Into this nightmare, firefighters had to work to save lives with equipment inadequate for a combination of disastrous errors that should never have been allowed. They went in untrained for a disaster that should never have happened.

And here lies the problem with this back-to-front Inquiry.

Despite the preceding 60 months of appalling decision-making and dereliction of duty by those in power and authority, we fear the Inquiry will focus on the efforts of those sent to save lives into the hell created by others.

This process is unfair, inequitable and seems destined to blame the responders in place of those responsible.

As we wait with trepidation, anxiety and sleepless nights for the Interim Report and recommendations, it is sickening to contemplate what our brave and selfless firefighters may be accused of.

An Inquiry is not a criminal prosecution. Blaming responders rather than those responsible goes completely against the spirit and purpose of a Public Inquiry.
I will stand by all victims of this avoidable atrocity, those we have lost and those left behind, until justice is served for them all.

Ends

Contact [email protected]

Reposted with thanks to Justice4Grenfell:

www.facebook.com/officalj4g/

justice4grenfell.org

pmk. miles behind. working all week. will try to catch up this evening.

bellinisurge
agreed that IndyRef 2 is coming anyway. I just feel that anyone 'helping' BJ to an election is increasing the chances that he will win one and then what is left of the UK (once Scotland leaves) will have 5 more years of the nightmare that is BJ as PM.

TatianaLarina
that's a devastating list of failures :(
I just read the residents had to sign a non-disclosure agreement to be able to see the paperwork too. So little transparency and accountability.

I have a lawyer friend working on the Grenfell enquiry. Tough going, I imagine.

Glad you’ve posted that Tat I fear it will get completely missed in this weeks undoubted Brexit shenanigans. It’s also a worry that the fire service will become the scapegoats.

It’s also a worry that the fire service will become the scapegoats.

Looks like it’s shaping up that way, remains to be seen.

If the upshot is a whitewash attempt to blame the fire service all hell will break lose.

It would be very foolish as Grenfell groups are intelligent, well-informed and well-organised. They will just keep fighting.

I think it's a case of the UK running out of options

A January election, whatever the result, doesn't give time for a "new" deal, only Revoke which doesn't seem likely.

The EU looks highly unlikely to allow another extension.

There isn't time for a 2nd Referendum within the extension that the EU will probably offer.

If a Parliament is returned which does have a majority for a 2nd Referendum (not at all a given), then the EU might give an extension, pending the result of such a Referendum But even that would have to be seriously curtailed from what has been said is feasible down to less than 6 months

In the short term at least, 9 rather than 12 December does take away the immediate - although not the long term - risk of a Bad Deal.

An absolute deadline for the EU is June 2020 as that's when the next 7 year budget cycle is decided - and whether or not the UK will be part of it makes a major difference (even before factoring in the possibility that we would be a wrecking influence).

It's a strategy fraught with risk and relies on the electorate tactically voting and starting to see through BJ - but all other routes are closing down

But as David Davis himself once said, "If a democracy cannot change its mind, it ceases to become a democracy." (9 Nov 2012)

What happens to Bercow after he steps down as speaker? Does he stay on as an MP until the next GE, or does he leave immediately (triggering a by-election)?

Tusk has just tweeted saying they have agreed to the Flextension to 31 January. Written confirmation to follow.

Here is his tweet

European Arrest Warrants will have to be replaced after Brexit, but will be sub-optimal. Given today's news, this isn't good at all.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-49576159

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/oct/27/essex-lorry-deaths-three-released-on-bail

The tories are being very very complacent . Basically no one under 45 is going to vote Tory. And they’re pissed. 35 yr olds used to have a home a career own a house a future. Not any more. And they’re much more politically engaged than they used to be. And they’re not being polled.

No room to assume whatsoever of course but all to fight for.

Oubliette - I'm pretty sure he said he was resigning as an MP on the same date - so a by-election will follow as a result.

Or there again, maybe not as there will be a GE instead

Lol! That will really piss BJ off 😂

An absolute deadline for the EU is June 2020 as that's when the next 7 year budget cycle is decided - and whether or not the UK will be part of it makes a major difference (even before factoring in the possibility that we would be a wrecking influence).

Already rumblings reported in the FT about trouble ahead with this in the EU. Germany could see their contributions double.

www.ft.com/content/9c82433c-f846-11e9-a354-36acbbb0d9b6

Hooray! I’m going to make it back to the U.K. before Brexit! (It was due to happen whilst I was flying home on Thursday night).