Westministenders: Sub-Prime Minister at large

[BigChocFrenzy]

Our Sub-Prime Minister BJ is threatening a govt tantrum strike until he is allowed his Haribo GE on 12 December.

If MPs vote for a GE, he has promised them "more time" to debate the WAB,
but that would only be from 29 October to 7 November

• ridiculously inadequate for such complex legislation -

before Parliament is automatically dissolved for the 25 sitting days before a GE.

The GE debate starts Monday 2:30 pm in the HoC
Corbyn says he'll agree to a GE if BJ takes No Deal off the table

BUT wIth this WA,
No deal cannot 100% be taken off the table whilst the Tories are in office:

they could still No Deal after transition ends on 31 December 2020,
if they don't request a transition by July.

We don't know when the EU will give their decision on an extension, or what it will be:

The EU may decide only after the HoC vote
- in which case MPs would be voting "blindly"

Tusk, Merkel & most other leaders want to grant the Flextension until 31 January,
but Macron & a few others want to give a short extension of only 2-4 weeks, to pressure MPs to pass the WA in November

• in which case the GE would take place shortly after Brexit, which would be a gift to BJ.

A 12 December GE would also cause serious logistical problems for local council officials:

Apart from their poll station bookings clashing with Xmas bookings for church halls & schools,

they are legally required to send out all the polling cards based on the current electoral roll,
then at the GE, check names against the new electoral roll which must be updated on 1 December

The Rebel Alliance want a long extension, so they have time to add amendments to the WAB,
e.g. a CU, the Level Playing Field agreement in May's WA, maybe even a PV
So many may want to vote against a GE before that ..... but what does Corbyn want ?

BJ as PM could still change the date of any GE after he has agreed to it, if it suits him.

What does BJ want ?
Alice Cooper said it:

"I'm your top prime cut of meat, I'm your choice
I wanna be elected
I'm your yankee doodle dandy in a gold Rolls Royce
I wanna be elected
Kids want a savior, don't need a fake

I wanna be elected
We're all gonna rock to the rules that I make
I wanna be elected, elected, elected..."

m.youtube.com/watch?v=cSvy8HpxFxo

• Post edited to correct dates

But don't vote for them just because on one day, three years ago, 600 000 more people chose to leave than to remain.
Vote for what you want. Not what you think the electorate of three years ago would choose.

Perfectly put.

Agree also!

I don't give a shit about what some people voted for 3 years ago. It's pretty obvious what the best course of action is - avoid anything that wanker Johnson suggests because he's a liar.

It safeguards the 1.8 million in Ireland, but abandons the 65 million in GB

It's Northern Ireland, not Ireland. The deal is still shit for Ireland, although it is better than no deal.

That's not badly put either Jason.

I think I've actually reached peak Brexshit. I am an ardent Remainer, but quite honestly right now, I think: just do whatever. Because limbo is purgatory and all that... Realistically I know that's wrong, because so many people will suffer, not least me and mine (living in Kent, running a business which requires not only getting out of Kent and importing a product from the EU).

But there seems to be no way out?

I also think it's quite possible that a general election isn't going to get us any further. Obviously, the Tories could get a 100+ majority and do exactly as they please. But it's also possible we could end up with a parliament with Tories with the most seats and no majority. Or a myriad of other results. A general election always ends up having lots of factors that resonate with voters that no one can foresee. Parties, even the Tories, won't just be talking about Brexit.

The idea that a general election is the way to sort everything is not definite.

I don't blame you yolo. But I do think the Tories will be relying on gaining from that attitude. As well as those who say they are going to respect the result of the referendum.

Totally right tobee, and I shouldnt just give up. OTH, my MP is Damian Collins who is a fucking Tory wankstain lickspittle at the best of times, and round here they'd vote in the proverbial donkey with a blue rosette, so even the best tactical vote is probs worthless. Now listening to the fucking wankstain lickspittle tRump on tv so probs best I go to bed!!

But don't vote for them just because on one day, three years ago, 600 000 more people chose to leave than to remain.

Some interesting maths going on in this post. I think you mean 1.2 million more people chose to leave than to remain.

Poll today - 57% regret the Brexit vote, but the Conservatives have a 16 point lead over Labour - confused? So are the public. ^Ben Page Ipsosmori

Saw this and thought of you fluffy

🤦‍♀️

Dateline London: Steve Richards makes BCF’s point at 20:00 last night about BJ running a minority Govt as though he has a majority. Plus many other pertinent observations from an impressive panel
www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m0009x65/dateline-london-26102019

I think if we do have an election time, then hopefully the other parties will get a chance to make their points about the deal and Brexit. At the moment, I think their voices aren't being heard.

I agree, @chomalungma. But the media have to give equal coverage during an election campaign so maybe that will help matters.

But don't vote for them just because on one day, three years ago, 600 000 more people chose to leave than to remain.

Some interesting maths going on in this post. I think you mean 1.2 million more people chose to leave than to remain.

17.4 - 0.6 = 16.2 + 0.6

The point is that only 600k people needed to have voted differently for the vote to have tied.

James Cleverly really isn't very Clever. He honestly seems to be saying that the removal of the workers' rights ( as evidenced by removal from the WA and subsequent leaks of gov paper on this ) is so the government can change workers' rights for the positive! He is Falsely implying we couldn't do this before!

It has always been possible for any country to give workers more protection than the EU basic minimum. That is why redundancy payments are hugely more beneficial in Spain for example.

To stop the allegation of being in an echo chamber I wouldn't mind the truly clever posters on here exploring if removal of the consumer, workers and environmental protections could really be economically beneficial? If so to what extent? Have any proper economists looked at this aspect? I know it's not the sort of society I want but Is there any merit in the economic argument for it?

Link is the mirror but it's got a clip.
www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tory-chair-james-cleverly-admits-20735776

The point is that only 600k people needed to have voted differently for the vote to have tied

Microtargetting really helped.

I know this has been mentioned before countless times - but did no one think about the ramifications if such a massive decision and change from the status quo when through with even a 1 person majority.

We can see now that even some of the Brexit party don't think it's Brexit.

Which is a powerful argument that Labour can use - because who gets to decide what Brexit is..

But we are going around in circles with that.

This is from the Guardian interview with Harriet Harman (running for Speaker):

“One of the things that’s been very striking is that people think the anger that’s displayed in parliament is an artefact, that it’s basically fake, playing up to the cameras. So if anybody’s under the impression that their anger is regarded as inspiring by people outside – people don’t buy it.” And that hints at something more complicated than the crude “people v parliament” narrative pushed by Downing Street, pitting furious leave voters against a supposedly obstructive elite.

Harman’s research suggests the angry, uncompromising stances that many Brexiters (and, arguably, parts of the left) see as connoting passion or ideological purity don’t always come across that way to voters, many of whom see squabbling and division merely as proof of impotence. Resorting to shouting is seen as “the ultimate failure of an institution”, says Harman. “In the outside world, people disagree about Brexit but they get along.” If she’s right, then politicians who believe they are channelling the public mood by ratcheting up their language may be in for a shock come a general election.

/End

I find this an encouraging counter narrative.

Apparently BJ is planning on making the SNP / Lib Dem proposal his own idea and trying to get his GE that way.

It makes Corbyn irrelevant if he does that which will be interesting

OTH, my MP is Damian Collins who is a fucking Tory wankstain lickspittle at the best of times, and round here they'd vote in the proverbial donkey with a blue rosette, so even the best tactical vote is probs worthless.

Times that are a-changing. This may still be true, of course, but it depends on the demographics of your constituency. There may be some surprising changes in farming communities especially where the LDs have a traditional foothold and in remainey stockbroker belt type places. A lot of my colleagues live in a Hertfordshire constituency with a CON MP but it's very much London and Cambridge commuterland with some farming chucked in - and IMO an upset although unlikely isn't completely impossible. It's a remain constituency with some big employers which depend on JIT supply chains.

I think it’s because the 9th needs Royal Assent by this Thursday so the WA can’t be passed before and 9th would be a fixed date so effectively blocking BJ moving the goal posts and threatening no deal again

Anyone read lawyer Anneli Howard’s view on why the WAB needs lengthy and detailed scrutiny?

endthechaos.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/THE-JOHNSON-WITHDRAWAL-AGREEMENT-EXPLAINED.pdf

Takeaway is the summary:

The future impact of the WAB in terms of increasing Executive power and reducing Parliamentary sovereignty and scrutiny cannot be underestimated. Rights and protections will be at the whim of whoever the Prime Minister of the day is. The constitutional wrangles and fallout are far from over.