Westministenders: Sub-Prime Minister at large

[BigChocFrenzy]

Our Sub-Prime Minister BJ is threatening a govt tantrum strike until he is allowed his Haribo GE on 12 December.

If MPs vote for a GE, he has promised them "more time" to debate the WAB,
but that would only be from 29 October to 7 November

• ridiculously inadequate for such complex legislation -

before Parliament is automatically dissolved for the 25 sitting days before a GE.

The GE debate starts Monday 2:30 pm in the HoC
Corbyn says he'll agree to a GE if BJ takes No Deal off the table

BUT wIth this WA,
No deal cannot 100% be taken off the table whilst the Tories are in office:

they could still No Deal after transition ends on 31 December 2020,
if they don't request a transition by July.

We don't know when the EU will give their decision on an extension, or what it will be:

The EU may decide only after the HoC vote
- in which case MPs would be voting "blindly"

Tusk, Merkel & most other leaders want to grant the Flextension until 31 January,
but Macron & a few others want to give a short extension of only 2-4 weeks, to pressure MPs to pass the WA in November

• in which case the GE would take place shortly after Brexit, which would be a gift to BJ.

A 12 December GE would also cause serious logistical problems for local council officials:

Apart from their poll station bookings clashing with Xmas bookings for church halls & schools,

they are legally required to send out all the polling cards based on the current electoral roll,
then at the GE, check names against the new electoral roll which must be updated on 1 December

The Rebel Alliance want a long extension, so they have time to add amendments to the WAB,
e.g. a CU, the Level Playing Field agreement in May's WA, maybe even a PV
So many may want to vote against a GE before that ..... but what does Corbyn want ?

BJ as PM could still change the date of any GE after he has agreed to it, if it suits him.

What does BJ want ?
Alice Cooper said it:

"I'm your top prime cut of meat, I'm your choice
I wanna be elected
I'm your yankee doodle dandy in a gold Rolls Royce
I wanna be elected
Kids want a savior, don't need a fake

I wanna be elected
We're all gonna rock to the rules that I make
I wanna be elected, elected, elected..."

m.youtube.com/watch?v=cSvy8HpxFxo

• Post edited to correct dates

just another day in purgatory :(

Thank you BCF.

.

What would you lot think is the aim of the EU there?

Protect the EU.

But there's more than one way to skin a cat.

If the UK really does leave, then it's in the EUs best and immediate interests to ensure it's as weak and feeble a rival as possible.

Think of it like a business. As long as the board are all working together, then it's champagne, truffles and christmas cards.

The moment one member leaves to "go it alone" then the board will do everything to ensure they can't become a threat.

@MNHQ you are brilliant - many thanks for correcting my OP 💐

Dates in OP are correct now, folks

Listening So beautiful.

Thanks to Bellini for the Now that's what I call Brexit!' podcast. Reposting for the new thread.

www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p07rsg2f

I'm really enjoying it. Especially as it has The Carpenters.

"What would you lot think is the aim of the EU there?"

Their aims are to keep their red lines: exit bill, expat rights, no border in Ireland
and especially to avoid No Deal, to protect Ireland

Approving the WA keeps their red lines and avoids No Deal at least until 2021
Once transition starts, they can hope that reality, or a new govt, causes the UK to ask for an extension to avoid No Deal later

EU discussion atm is probably because of differing opinions on how best to avoid an eventual No Deal
Some leaders may wish to give time for a PV, or for effective amendments, or for a new non-Tory govt to be elected
Others just want this WA nailed down, to avoid the imminent risk of No Deal, rather than worry about the later risk.

Is that your new feline, @listening ?

PMK

Their aims are to keep their red lines: exit bill, expat rights, no border in Ireland and especially to avoid No Deal, to protect Ireland

All of those stem from Protecting the EU.

It's interesting, if not important, if not vital, not to confuse tactics and strategy. All the things listed are tactical decisions supporting a strategy of protecting the EU.

It's clear that a straight up and down "no deal" has - so far - been avoided as it's more harmful than other options. But it's not the EUs strategy and could easily rear up if it seemed it was the best way to protect the EU.

PMK and thanks BCF

Yep, DG I was stating their specific targets, within the strategy / imperative of protecting the EU
(I also hadn't seen your AW until I refreshed !)

placemats / BigChoc
That cat is sadly no more, but even buried in the garden he makes more sense than most politicians

I was stating their specific targets, within the strategy / imperative of protecting the EU

Historians will recall that the entire US/UK foreign policy 1941-1945 was to "be nice to Russia" as we needed them - tactically. Even though both countries had an openly declared strategy of suppressing Communism/Bolshevism.

The moment Germany was defeated, the US/UK did possibly the fastest 180-degree turn in history, and were days away from launching an all-out attack on Russia before she had a chance to shake the snow off her boots.

Brexiteers - certainly what's left of the Tory party - appear to be assuming there are no external factors at play in the EUs current tactical stance. Personally I would be much less confident.

Events, dear boy, events as SuperMac once said.

Weary pmk

Lewis Goodalll@lewis*_goodall

"It's a deal which has been approved by Parliament."

The PM repeats the complete untruth that has been pumped out online by the Conservative Party (and was in his letter to Tory members the other day)

that Parliament has approved his deal.

It hasn't.
And he knows it.

We've got Conservative MPs going around saying Parliament passed Johnson's deal when it didn't
and Labour MPs going around saying take no deal off the table when, without an election, it can't.

I despair.

I’ve been asking remainer contacts to present me a plausible scenario of how they reverse Brexit without an election.
I still haven’t heard one.

And to all those tweeting me saying a PV/revoke you really need to take a proper look at the parliamentary realities.
Wishing for a thing doesn’t make it so.
Ask Boris Johnson about October 31st or Theresa May about March 29th.

PMK after a stressful visit to John Lewis chasing these children round.

People of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, behold our noble leader.

Please do put the government on strike. It happened in Belgium and they coped. I rather think that we'll cope in Britain too.

What does July have to do with anything? Trying to update mum and both confused!

What is also concerning is that all delays under May and now BJ are eating into the transition period.

It would have made sense to set it at 3 years, to give some chance to negotiate at least a preliminary trade deal with the EU

• even after that, we'd be negotiating additional bilaterals with them for several years

Norway is in the SM, but additionally has about 100 seperate bilateral deals, to make trade work well enough to only have a 1-2 hour delay at their border with Sweden. The Uk has a far more complex & developed economy than Norway

However, the ERG want No Deal and BJ has neither the wish nor the balls to stand up to them

Until Dec 2020 is already too short a period to negotiate even the most rudimentary FTA with the EU or anyone else - like the USA - unless BJ intends to sign anything the US put in front of him

If we assume (caveat noted) that a pre-Xmas election is now a dead duck (and leave the catastrophic error of judgement somebody must have made that it was ever a realistic possibility in the first place) then what's the future looking like ?

January election ?
February ?

no matter how bad things are, I really can't see those happening. Meaning we're now looking to a

March election ?

What will a corrosive 5 months do to Brexit, the Tories, Labour, and a weary EU and world in general ?

How does that creeping Remain majority work ? Does it still work ? We've had over 3 years eating into the known Leaver demographics. Which does make some poll results ... questionable.

How many more 18 year olds will there be in March ready to proudly avoid voting, like so many before them ?

Is it time for coffee ? Apparently DW says yes . brb ...

Ouch
www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-brexit-news-latest-eu-juncker-referendum-campaign-a9169936.html

Bercow Under the terms of the WA, if we wish to extend the transition from 31 Dec 2020, we have to notify the EU and agree by July

Otherwise, since there is insufficient time until 31 Dec to negotiate - AND have approved - any trade deal with the EU,
it would be No Deal on 1 Jan 2021

Any trade deal would have to pass not just the UK Parliament but also about 38 national & regional Parliaments within the EU
So the approval process itself could take several months, even after the negotiations and legal text have been completed

Why can't no deal be taken off the table unless there's an election? What does the election do?