Westministenders: Sub-Prime Minister at large

[BigChocFrenzy]

Our Sub-Prime Minister BJ is threatening a govt tantrum strike until he is allowed his Haribo GE on 12 December.

If MPs vote for a GE, he has promised them "more time" to debate the WAB,
but that would only be from 29 October to 7 November

• ridiculously inadequate for such complex legislation -

before Parliament is automatically dissolved for the 25 sitting days before a GE.

The GE debate starts Monday 2:30 pm in the HoC
Corbyn says he'll agree to a GE if BJ takes No Deal off the table

BUT wIth this WA,
No deal cannot 100% be taken off the table whilst the Tories are in office:

they could still No Deal after transition ends on 31 December 2020,
if they don't request a transition by July.

We don't know when the EU will give their decision on an extension, or what it will be:

The EU may decide only after the HoC vote
- in which case MPs would be voting "blindly"

Tusk, Merkel & most other leaders want to grant the Flextension until 31 January,
but Macron & a few others want to give a short extension of only 2-4 weeks, to pressure MPs to pass the WA in November

• in which case the GE would take place shortly after Brexit, which would be a gift to BJ.

A 12 December GE would also cause serious logistical problems for local council officials:

Apart from their poll station bookings clashing with Xmas bookings for church halls & schools,

they are legally required to send out all the polling cards based on the current electoral roll,
then at the GE, check names against the new electoral roll which must be updated on 1 December

The Rebel Alliance want a long extension, so they have time to add amendments to the WAB,
e.g. a CU, the Level Playing Field agreement in May's WA, maybe even a PV
So many may want to vote against a GE before that ..... but what does Corbyn want ?

BJ as PM could still change the date of any GE after he has agreed to it, if it suits him.

What does BJ want ?
Alice Cooper said it:

"I'm your top prime cut of meat, I'm your choice
I wanna be elected
I'm your yankee doodle dandy in a gold Rolls Royce
I wanna be elected
Kids want a savior, don't need a fake

I wanna be elected
We're all gonna rock to the rules that I make
I wanna be elected, elected, elected..."

m.youtube.com/watch?v=cSvy8HpxFxo

• Post edited to correct dates

I can see the logic in what Bear is saying in that, as BoZo thinks he's right, is happy with his course of action AND appears to have enough of the electorate behind in that he's leading in the polls, he's simply NOT going to change his tack. He's not going to sort the shitshow, as he's totally happy with it.

It's the Opposition's job to be banging the drum loud and clear about WHY it's a shot show and also whose shit show it is. That's why Corbyn's Labour has failed (and was discussed on here yesterday when I said broadly similar).

So, no, it's not a mess of Labour's making. BUT they could have done more to vociferously oppose it at every step. Bang the THIS IS SHIT AND THIS IS WHY drum. They should / could still be doing that, but they're not (hence me mentioning Kier yesterday and how him tweeting opposition just isn't enough to get the message across).

In the face of a government which will plough on regardless, the Opposition needs to be strong and forceful, and it's not. Were they - and had they been for the last 3.5 years - then they may be leading in the polls and would've been gung ho for a GE.

I do agree with BCF that a GE is needed before Brexit. Whether we get it is something else. Again, Labour needs to back it, but won't. Frustrating and will lead to the WAIB probably getting forced through and there being a BoZo bounce post-Brexit.

But let's not kid ourselves that Corbyn has been totally unable to affect the mood of the public since the ref, as he could've done way better at holding the government to account. His apathy has helped the Tories still seemingly getting their way, albeit via a rather convoluted path, despite being a minority government.

Oh, and sometimes your posts do show up rather oddly, BCF. Other times not. Lots of the upward-pointing thingies (what's their name?).

I agree JC has been dim and pathetic as an Opposition leader
he has not effectively opposed Tory policy on anything much, including Brexit,
under Cameron, May and BJ.

His incompetence is part of why a divided & minority Tory govt have managed to survive to this stage

But .....
Remainer MPs who voted against May's WA share the blame - those like Starmer & Benn fully understood the risks of doing so
AND ....
they are generally the favoured candidates on these threads to replace him !
Very few Westministenders want any of the Labour Leavers / hard left to do so.

Anyway, now we are in this situation, no Labour or centrist MP should just cave in to an ERG WA,
because that would be a vote to let them roll back workers rights, further slash the welfare state,
make life even tougher for those already struggling at the bottom of the heap

There is no gain from BJ's WA for the Labour or LDem parties and v little for the country either
It safeguards the 1.8 million in Ireland, but abandons the 65 million in GB

The SNP would probably gain, as angry Scottish voters turn to them
but to their credit they have continued to oppose this WA.

BCF you’re just doing what politicians are accused of doing - saying what you don’t want without saying what you do want, that most importantly, is actually possible

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/26/general-election-volatile-electorate-all-poll-bets-are-off-rob-ford

Good piece on why polling is all over the place.

British Election Study researchers recently declared the electorate the most volatile in modern political history.

I wouldn’t bet for or against anything

I keep saying that on this thread...weird times!

Bear What you want is NOT possible for Labour

You need to accept that this is a minority Tory govt, so what the Opposition wants / doesn't want is just as important.

The 2 options I suggest - bringing back May's WA or a GE before Brexit - are no more "impossible" than what you suggest

In fact, reports are that many pragmatic Tories, including some in the Cabinet, would accept bringing back May's WA if BJ's WA can't get through

Given there is no chance of sanity breaking out in the house and mp's acting on behalf of the country then what I want is a vote putting May's deal up against remain&reform.

That then puts the boot firmly on the other foot, in the remain camp, as we can then make all sorts of unicorn promises about what can be reformed - paralleling the claptrap leavers spouted/spout.

BCF I literally don’t understand what you are highlighting / emphasising with your italics

Mays deal isn’t on the table - why would BJ bring that back - it would make him look a failure?

And no ones explained how a GE before agreeing the WA is possible in practice

Disunited Tories still:

Tom Newton Dunn@tnewtondunn

The plot thickens:

No10 now reveals it wants to keep a one line bill option for an election on the table, with or without WAB passing, if FTPA motion fails on Monday.

Not what Morgan and Cleverly were saying on broadcast this morning, so appears Cabinet v No10 split remains.
.......
Tories turn down LD/SNP’s offer for Dec 9 election because it gives no time to pass the WAB.
A subtle but important shift from No10 since PM’s letter on Thursday:
now, no election without WAB attempt, no longer just no WAB without election.

Heavy pressure for this from Cabinet.

bear We've said how a GE can happen before Brexit

For what either you or I want, one party in the HoC has to cave in
Labour is no more likely to give in than the Tories

I understand that you are an ex-Tory,
but Labour are not going to hand them a landslide GE as a reward - a bad conduct prize - for creating this Brexit disaster.

re May's WA, iirc the Kinnock amendment specified this should be brought back if no WA had been agreed by the HoC by a certain date

Sounds reasonable, Frankie

Bear I think the votes are there for a simple majority for an election before WA if an extension is in place. Labour has said that's its condition for GE, SNP and Lib Dems are keen, DUP and rebel Tories would probably abstain. BJ has asked again and again for an election, what's he going to do, say no and open himself up to the same calls of "frit" (hate that word) as they've used against Labour?

I think also it's harder for BJ to say no to an election than JC just now. He is ahead in the polls, has a deal he can campaign on, and most importantly, his image is based on this authoritarian strong man. He can't back down from a challenge without weakening that image.

Let’s see what tomorrow brings and reconvene to thrash it out tomorrow night!

Trump's a nasty bastard - and BJ would deliver us up to him

After much gloating over how terrified he claims Baghdadi was when US troops killed him,
he then praises Russia and threatens European allies who didn't do as he told them:

Deborah Haynes@haynesdeborah

Trump thanks Russia & Syria for help in Baghdadi op, but in same briefing he criticises UK, France & Germany for failing to take back their captured ISIS fighters in Syria.

He says he's threatened to drop these fighters at their border.
"You can have fun capturing them"

tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2019/10/27/opinion-brexit-political-reporting/

Following on from Oborne and Adam Boultons articles about the role of the MSM in the Brexit conundrum here is a piece by Peter Ungphakorn a trade experts view.

Spoiler it’s a really really complex issue that cannot be solved in sound bites and a Tweet whatever no10 source says.

The broadcasters have professional reporters who can make that kind of information useful, understandable and interesting. but they don’t.

Can I just jump in here and say I've been catching up on this thread (as usual) and have noticed that there have been an unhealthy number of mentions of Johnson's willy of late!!!!! And someone even mentioned it being kissed upthread. ^🧐

Poll today - 57% regret the Brexit vote, but the Conservatives have a 16 point lead over Labour - confused? So are the public. ^Ben Page Ipsosmori

Saw this and thought of you fluffy

Pat Leahy@PatLeahyIT

DUP hasn't decided yet on whether to support Lib Dem bill for Dec 9 election or Boris Johnson's bid for Dec 12 vote

acc to Jeffrey Donaldson, on RTE's This Week

Does anyone know this poster and have you received PMS off of her/him please?
*RufusthebewiIderedreindeer
I am asking for an important reason. Thanks

sos I've seen that poster around a lot, no reason to think they are iffy? Congrats to your DGD btw

Poll today - 57% regret the Brexit vote, but the Conservatives have a 16 point lead over Labour - confused? So are the public.

I regret the Brexit vote, but “Leave” won so this should be respected.... the Tories are the only
main party who are respecting it, and will take this forward, so I’m leaning towards voting for them. I’m not confused, just recognising the reality of the situation we’re in... I’m not the only one!

sos I know rufus from many threads, including old Westministenders

• she's been around for years and seems pretty sensible I haven't received PMs from her

I decided right after the ref to "respect" the vote by agreeing to any WA that wasn't too harmful

Norway ++ .... Was the ideal I hoped for
May's WA .... Disappointing, but it'll do
BJ's WA .... No, disastrous

I regret the Brexit vote, but “Leave” won so this should be respected.... the Tories are the only main party who are respecting it, and will take this forward, so I’m leaning towards voting for them

You don't have to vote for something - especially something you don't actually believe in - just because some other people voted for it three years ago. (If that were true there would be no point in any GE - we would always have to vote for whoever won last time)

You should vote for what you honestly think is best in the here and now.
If you honestly think 5 more years of tory government, a hard brexit (followed potentially by no deal at the end of 2020) and austerity on steroids is for the best - then by all means vote for them.

But don't vote for them just because on one day, three years ago, 600 000 more people chose to leave than to remain.
Vote for what you want. Not what you think the electorate of three years ago would choose.