Westminstenders: Super Saturday

[RedToothBrush]

Parliament sits on a Saturday for the first time since the Falklands.

A deal has been reached with the EU. Its utterly shite and worse for the UK than May's deal. It even leaves no deal as an option after transition.

The DUP don't like it. They got predictably shafted.

Tomorrow is a debate and vote on the deal. Amendments are key, in particular the Letwin amendment which seeks to close a loophole in the Benn Act and stop the Deal being adopted tomorrow, instead forcing the ultimate decision over the deal to a later date and forcing an extension.

Which the EU may or may not agree to.

There is also talk of forcing another ref via amendments but this, unlike the Letwin amendment is unlikely to pass.

The vote tomorrow looks to be very tight. The Letwin amendment passes looks likely to make Johnson fail to have the numbers. However there is talk that enough Labour MPs have decided to back the deal.

There is also a big anti Brexit march in London tomorrow (which runs the risk of having problems with the Extinction Rebellion ban). Good luck to everyone going tomorrow.

See you on the other side (which might now be on this thread!!)

Grey's blog ends with a depressing summary:

Not only will there be no certainty even if Johnson’s deal happens, nor will there be any let up in the political and cultural divisions Brexit has caused. For that goes back to the issue with which I began this post, about how no form of Brexit is acceptable to all Brexiters.

The national tragedy this creates is that even if Brexit is done through Johnson’s deal – or any other – the most passionate advocates of Brexit will still be bitterly unhappy. So an entire nation will have deformed its future for something that half – probably now more than half, and their voice was heard loud in demonstration today - the country don’t want, and a sizeable part of the other half, who did, don’t want in this form. We’ll still be just as deeply divided, but also much poorer into the bargain. Underneath all the obscure parliamentary protocols and procedures, it’s this which is at stake.

So now we have the spectacle of Bojo asking the evil EU for help against Parliament (sovereignty! take back control!).

The weirdness never ends. Nor the ability of some people to hold completely contradictory beliefs without the slightest twinge of discomfort or reflection.

Fluffy I agree with you that the EU will likely wait this week out if no VONC. But if there was, on Monday, would they go no deal? It's speculation, but if I've thought of it, so have the SNP and Lib Dems, both parties keen for election while they're riding high.

It's more likely that we'll see amendments to whatever bills Bercow allows next week, and we'll finally get another PV vote. But if it's all going to pot, I believe the opposition will try to pull the plug. Not I say try, not sure about succeed.

Interesting Grey blog explains it well. But also depressing.

But I think that BoZo is getting a bounce right now, so a GE is dangerous. The other parties will see that too. Tactics is everything.

Unless they have the ability for a GNU, they shouldn't be doing a VoNC. And I think the Tory rebels are a potential thorn is the side to even get a GNU (though, bizarrely, the DUP may assist with numbers here).

I don't think Bercow will allow the new deal to be brought again, in the same way TM wasn't allowed to bring hers again without changes. So, I anticipate the secondary Brexit legislation, plus discussions on amendments to the deal (such as the LPF), leading to an amended deal being voted on.

In fact, I think it'll almost end up back as TM's deal! So we'll have wasted over 6 months getting back to the same place we were in in March.

Thank you NoWordForFluffy . I was trying to remember whether she said anything about what was in the emergency business statement to shed light on what they were debating but I think the focus at that point was on whether they were debating QS or not so not mentioned.

I agree with you and think Bercow will not allow it but I guess the bit they are banking on being different to the previous TM ruling is that they didn’t actually vote on it. I think though he would be justified in saying that is not relevant as everything was in place for it to be voted on, we’ll find out Monday.

Also agree with you about a bounce for Johnson, I think his letter stunt will go down well with people like my Dad who will respond in exactly the way Johnson intends him to, already riled at another delay and I think a VONC very dangerous.

I absolutely am against what happened to JRM and his child. Doesn’t matter what you believe, MPs should not be subjected to this. That being said I see this as a deliberate attempt to stir up violence against the Remain side, trying agitate a small amount of non peaceful leavers into retaliating. He used his son in a deliberately calculated manner knowing exactly what he would be subjected to which is beyond words really as was some of his other behaviour yesterday.

My mother confirmed that's she's still gullible / unable to see what's really going on last night. It's so frustrating.

She tells me that she has better analysis than I have as she's older so been through more and studied it, so I'm essentially daft / naive for not seeing it as she does. Doesn't matter that I have a job where being able to analyse complex information is essential, apparently! 🙄

Post, I think our parents would get on.

Please note the dates on these polls, and recall what actually happened in 2017.

I did get impression that Labour was especially adverse to GE in mid-winter, though, thought their voters would be less likely to turn out. Do folk reckon that's a valid concern?

I'd say that the Tories' key voters are less likely to go out in winter to vote, surely?

Fluffy I think they would! I timed my last phone call for end of the week so I can leave a few days space for both our sakes, not easy is it .

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3722259-Westminstenders-Extension-or-No-Extension?watched=1
New thread

I seem to remember the last extension requests were agreed quickly-do you think they will be again? Although macron might be a spanner in the works. Is he hoping to take France out of the EU and therefore asserting his lack of unity? It seems that way.

I'm still bemused by the poster yesterday saying we need to apologise to the rest of the EU about all our messing about. No concept there about the effects that the UK are already experiencing such as medicine shortages which will only get worse. Ive not heard of any negative effects for the EU27 in the same terms. Does anyone have any info on this?

I know I shouldn't bother but the Fail 'article' about Peter Mandelson and another using 'dark arts' to throw the Brexit negotitions. What they mean is they have a plan, something that BoJo and others do not have.
In other news women in bikinis look like women in bikinis. Other shocking news, pregnant women's tummys get bigger.

"5) VONC for GE without a deal calls the EU's bluff on this, they've always said extension for GE or PV would be granted"

That may not hold now that they & BJ have agreed a WA

==> Risky to call a VoNC before the extension has actually been granted

As discussed, Macron has just gone against the rest of the EU and pissed everyone off by vetoing the ascention talks continuing for Albani & N Macedonia

He could veto this too

Also, a GE resulting in a large Tory majority risks that they'll just go for No Deal, especially if BJ thinks that will help him vs BXP.
He very probably won't, but the EU can't be certain

Why should they take ANY risk of No Deal, when they have a WA that satisfies all their red lines ?

The one thing they might take a risk for is a PV with Remain on it,
but that requires a GNU that can last long enough and I don't think the numbers are there

The ex-Tory rebels would mostly return to the fold, because they were never really "ex", just against No Deal

Post, thankfully my mum only emails (anxiety disorder). Though that keeps my blood pressure high over a sustained period!

And flouncy, I think you're right!

Bercow I think that Leaver was just looking for a way to make Remainers the bad guys
e.g. blaming Remainers for the uncertainty the 3 million face

Living in Germany, I can say there are no shortages of anything due to Brexit
and I'd have expected to hear of shortages anywhere else.

The most affected E27 countries have spent billions in total on prepping, but nothing like the expense of the (inadequate) prepping of the UK
They haven't lost measurable amounts of GDP yet, whereas the UK has lost 60-70 billion since the ref, compared to the estimates if Remain ha won.

The ones who have suffered are the 3 million in the UK, with the stress of applying for settled status and 42% not receiving it.
That sort of thing does get published here

However, although we may not have mentioned them much yesterday, because of the march & the vital votes,
we have posted a lot on other threads

Anyway, if there is any apologising that should be done to rEU, then it is certainly Brexiters who should do so,
since they are responsible for the entire Brexit clusterfuck.

Absolutely RTB

Listening to the shouting etc on R4 just made me feel emotional.

I shall be adding a new entry to the Dictionary, having learned this significant definition on this thread.

CHOOSE: Something that traitorous Remoaner MPs in Parliament apparently did, by the government having deliberately withdrawn the opportunity for them to actually do so

A couple of posts.....