Westminstenders: Super Saturday

[RedToothBrush]

Parliament sits on a Saturday for the first time since the Falklands.

A deal has been reached with the EU. Its utterly shite and worse for the UK than May's deal. It even leaves no deal as an option after transition.

The DUP don't like it. They got predictably shafted.

Tomorrow is a debate and vote on the deal. Amendments are key, in particular the Letwin amendment which seeks to close a loophole in the Benn Act and stop the Deal being adopted tomorrow, instead forcing the ultimate decision over the deal to a later date and forcing an extension.

Which the EU may or may not agree to.

There is also talk of forcing another ref via amendments but this, unlike the Letwin amendment is unlikely to pass.

The vote tomorrow looks to be very tight. The Letwin amendment passes looks likely to make Johnson fail to have the numbers. However there is talk that enough Labour MPs have decided to back the deal.

There is also a big anti Brexit march in London tomorrow (which runs the risk of having problems with the Extinction Rebellion ban). Good luck to everyone going tomorrow.

See you on the other side (which might now be on this thread!!)

Yes you'd hope some leavers would even think

" Actually it's shabby to try and rush something through like this now, after all the time we have had to date. I'm excruciatingly embarrassed our leading statesman being so churlish about a brief extension requested by Parliament. We should also be transparent about fully calculated revised impact assessments.If something's worth doing it's worth doing calmly and well."

Very late pmk - I've just read 39 pages after returning from the march (plus about 10 pages of the end of the last thread). I will relate my adventures tomorrow on the new thread as it's too late to get into ... but blimey Charlie!

I hope this latest appallingly shabby act by Bozo fattest of fatbergs works to remind a few of the tory rebels/ labour numpties inclined to vote for the W.A that he absolutely cannot be trusted in any way and they must not accept any assurances from him.

I'm just so embarrassed - not just for all of us (though the embarrassment is terrible) but for him. Can he not fucking see himself? Can he not see what that looks like?

He shouldn't be trusted with scissors never mind the future of the entire nation.

Yes pretzels. Well done indeed for marching!

Anyone know how long we're likely to wait for EU reply? Especially if no one is, presumably, going to advocate for the extension on the government's behalf. Sorry if this was discussed earlier.

Thanks pretzel's 🥨, enjoy your sleep.

Thanks listening, it is truly appreciated.

Thanks to all that marched. Well appreciated.
I cannot believe the the letter sent unsigned accompanied by a second ( signed) basically saying an extension a waste of time. This Etonian shit of a man is willing to play his Etonian fucking games with the whole country! What has the world come to when people like him can destroy a whole country? What the hell can be done now? And wtf are we going to do without Berkow?

Really horrified by JRM effectively using his child as a human shield.
He knew he would be heckled, but with his child with him; the optics make it look like the protestors are the unreasonable ones.
Disgusting. I hope all of his children rebel and live alternative lifestyles, instead of becoming clones of their father.

Also unsigned letter asking for extension till 31 January. 🤞.

He took his child to Balmoral too cerlywhirlytwirly it's how some ' privileged' people behave. ' come child and let us see our mate the Queen' and ' come child and view what the people who are not privileged like you behave' touch.

That should be curlywurlytwirly

Really horrified by JRM effectively using his child as a human shield.
He knew he would be heckled, but with his child with him; the optics make it look like the protestors are the unreasonable ones.
The clip shown on the news was a bit more than heckling - there were around a dozen police officers surrounding JRM and his son whilst a crowd got as close as they could and bellowed and screamed at him - that wasn’t peaceful protest, it looked incredibly aggressive and intimidating. Just because it’s JRM doesn’t excuse that behaviour, IMO, the people who did that are as bad as the thugs on the other side, and were in no way reasonable. I was horrified by the protestors in that clip.

Jess Philips tweeted that every MP needed protection - from other reports that doesn’t seem quite true, but I find it appalling it’s needed at all tbh.

It is frustrating that the news only showed prominent pro-Brexit figures surrounded by police, and not Jess or Diane Abbott for example, although I guess unfortunately the fact that Diane Abbott for example is relentlessly targeted is not exactly breaking news.

Bozo's not signing the letter bullshit is petulant and slippery and reminds me of when I ask one of my kids to apologise to the other one and they just scream "AAARGH, SORRY! MERRRR!" or when I ask them to share something so they throw the something at the other one's face.

I think that people wanting a new vote and to remain in the EU believe that everything will go back to how it was before the decision to hold a referendum, divided though things were then, however the disillusionment will last for another generation, the farage supporters will never go away. Disgust with parliament will remain.

You do not cart your kid along when you know full well that you are a controversial figure that you have chosen to be and not expect a reaction when people see you.
On the other hand mobbing like that is also unacceptable, but only because the child was there!!!!
I have no sympathy for people who go out of their way to stir the public up! If JRM acted like a real statesman than I would object to mobbing him but he is neither a gentleman or a statesman he is just a jumped up little man who thinks he is more important than Joe bloggs and his ilk will bring down the UK!

Would BJ not be in contempt as thought he said he would do nothing to frustrate the Benn act and the other 2 letters do exactly that?

I don't think the other letters do really frustrate the Benn Act as the under protest letter clearly admits legally ....

" it is open to the EU to accede to the request mandated by parliament or to offer an alternative period. "

A request sent under protest but still officially sent from the PM is still a ( sulky) request signed or not. Especially when an earlier undertaking was given to the court that the law would be complied with.

I think mobbing like that is unacceptable whomever the target is. Two wrongs don’t make a right and all that.

Emotions are running high kyvia look around the world. I agree that it may not be right but Brexit has divided this country and destroying it from the inside out. Something that even 2 World Wars could not even do. If you think mobbing JRM is bad you wait till the fights break out if it's a no deal Brexit and food and meds shortages really do happen and thousands of jobs are lost. Just think of the troubles starting up in NI again. I agree 2 wrongs don't make a right but you will see a lot worse happening very soon. Hong Kong a good example. Our democracy is dying. We are becoming America. Yes, expect far worse I am sorry to say.

Well, the Court will decide tomorrow whether he's followed the letter of the law or not.

And mobbing MPs was wrong. We know emotions are high, but there's no excuses for that behaviour.

Did anyone really expect Boris to do anything else other than send another letter alongside? He’s been forced to do something he thinks is wrong - of course he’s not going to just meekly do it. And of course everything is an opportunity for electioneering, not signing the Benn letter plays right into the image of Boris (erm...people?) vs Parliament that goes down well with people most likely to vote for him.

Just Boris doing Boris, I’m surprised anyone is surprised.

Numbers update from Dom Walsh:

Having caught up on today's numbers and votes, there are two major conclusions that stand out.

1: The votes are almost certainly there for the government's deal.

2: The numbers are also almost certainly there for a VONC if an extension is in place. 👀

Thread.

1. First, the good news for the Government: the deal.

By my count, 307 MPs have now confirmed they'll vote for the deal:
259x Cons who voted for MV3 (this includes Elphicke)
20x ERG Spartans
13x anti-No Deal ex-Tories
11x Labour MPs
3x Independents
1x Jo Johnson

1. That's short of the 320 needed for a majority. But there are a further 16 MPs who either voted against or abstained on Letwin. One, Kate Hoey, says she won't vote for the deal, but the other 15 probably will:

8x ERG Spartans
3x anti-No Deal ex-Tories
1x Labour
3x Ex-Labour

1. 307 + 15 gets you to 323 - a slender majority. You might lose a few from this - 👀 on John Redwood, in particular. But there are 14 further MPs, who haven't ruled out voting for the deal and might well do so:

• 3x anti-No Deal Tories
• 8x Labour dealers
• 2x ex-Lab
• S Hermon

1. Either way, there are a pool of 337 MPs the Government could get votes from. They won't get all of them but I'd be very surprised now if they got less than 320. So all good on that front.

Now for the bad news: the numbers on a VONC.

1. Some points to make on context for a VONC:

• Won't happen unless there's an extension of at least a month. Risks accidental No Deal
• Context would be 'stop the deal', not 'stop no deal'.
• I think it's highly likely the DUP would back one now.

1. I said it would be 'stop the deal', but it's more complex than that, as there's added party politics. As such:

• Only the most committed supporters of a 2nd referendum among the ex-Tories would back it.
• But equally, only the most committed Labour dealists would oppose it.

1. So, estimated numbers.

AGAINST A VONC: 308

• 287 Tories
• Charlie Elphicke
• 19 anti-No Deal ex-Tories
• 1 Labour (John Mann)

1. FOR A VONC: 319

• 237 Labour
• 35 SNP
• 19 Lib Dems
• 10 DUP
• 5 TIG
• 4 Plaid
• 1 Green
• 4 suspended Lab (Hopkins, Williamson, Hepburn, Hill)
• 4 Inds (Ellman, Shuker, O'Mara, Lloyd)

See the problem?

1. That leaves a group of 12 swing voters in the middle who could go either way:

• 5 Inds - Hermon, Woodcock, Lewis, Austin, Field
• 3 ex-Tories for a second ref: Greening, Grieve, Bebb
• 3 committed Lab dealers: Flint, Barron, Fitzpatrick
• 1 committed Lab No Dealer: Hoey

But.
10. The Government would have to win over every single one of these swing voters to win a VONC. Abstaining wouldn't be enough.

I think that's nigh-on impossible in the circumstances.

Brace, brace. Could be in for some unexpected twists yet.

I haven't seen the JRB mobbing but I saw some woman screaming "shame" at Andrea leadsom and thought that was bad. The stupid woman following her and the police and screaming and screaming, all worked up. I hope her family and friends see her and see what a twat she was.
You do not scream and shout at people. It's not on

Chris Grey's latest Brexit blog (am going to read it with a morning cuppa)

chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/

Someone on Twitter yesterday said that the one iron rule of Brexit was that if a can could be kicked down the road, it would be. Thus, while I still think that passing this deal subject to scrutiny and implementation legislation is the least damaging possible option on the table, I suspect we're heading for extension, VONC without a deal, no GNU, and election.

The opposition may well be thinking along these lines:

1. extension request was sent
2. PM must accept a 31 Jan 2020 extension
3. risk of legal no deal due to VONC is now greatly reduced if not eliminated, because
4. EU does not want to push UK out with no deal
5. VONC for GE without a deal calls the EU's bluff on this, they've always said extension for GE or PV would be granted
6. chance (slim) of GNU for PV and update extension request for enough time
7. no GNU, election 5 or 12 Dec only possible dates

It's a risk, but I think it may be one that is considered worth taking by the opposition.

I think a GE is too risky right now. We don't want another 5 year Tory term which is a real risk at this moment in time.

Better to let him limp on for a bit. We also may not get news of an extension until after the last date for a VoNC. The EU 27 may see what happens with the legislation and deal (I can't see the deal going through in its current form, which will then need Barnier involvement to agree any amendments).