Westminstenders: Super Saturday

[RedToothBrush]

Parliament sits on a Saturday for the first time since the Falklands.

A deal has been reached with the EU. Its utterly shite and worse for the UK than May's deal. It even leaves no deal as an option after transition.

The DUP don't like it. They got predictably shafted.

Tomorrow is a debate and vote on the deal. Amendments are key, in particular the Letwin amendment which seeks to close a loophole in the Benn Act and stop the Deal being adopted tomorrow, instead forcing the ultimate decision over the deal to a later date and forcing an extension.

Which the EU may or may not agree to.

There is also talk of forcing another ref via amendments but this, unlike the Letwin amendment is unlikely to pass.

The vote tomorrow looks to be very tight. The Letwin amendment passes looks likely to make Johnson fail to have the numbers. However there is talk that enough Labour MPs have decided to back the deal.

There is also a big anti Brexit march in London tomorrow (which runs the risk of having problems with the Extinction Rebellion ban). Good luck to everyone going tomorrow.

See you on the other side (which might now be on this thread!!)

I think are trying to bring back the deal next week but it is not yet clear whether is permissible, Bercow to seek advice and make a ruling. If it does come back amendments will be able to be submitted.

Remainer MPs did not choose not to vote for the deal today. BJ has chosen to delay

Has anyone - outside of Government - seen the contents of the WAIB yet?

Outsomnia
It’s a tough job. I worked on the industry side on draft financial services legislation and even a couple of words caused huge debate.

Chasz

Thanks fellow traveller!

Letwin placed a vote before Parliament saying the deal cannot be approved without the legislation so approval of the deal is delayed

Presumably if the deal had passed today, BJ would have been aiming to get all the relevant legislation passed by Oct 31st to meet his do or die deadline.

So does that mean he could still achieve this by Oct 31 and leave with a deal (assuming it is voted through once all the legislation is passed) without asking for an extension?

BJ legally has to ask for an extension by 11 pm tonight

However, if the HoC passes all the neessary legislation, we can still leave on 31 October,
which would automatically cut short any extension

• I'd expect the EU to put this clause in any extension, if they agree to on.

Presumably if the deal had passed today, BJ would have been aiming to get all the relevant legislation passed by Oct 31st to meet his do or die deadline.

Well, this is what is claimed. But he's not trusted, hence Letwin.

farting I recommend keeping your stash
No Deal is v unlikely on 31 Oct, but still possible

However, even if this WA eventually passes, there is a significant possibility of No Deal when transition ends, on 31 Dec next year
So you'd need to keep it topped up

Wondering, No, today was the day for it to be passed without asking for an extension. It might still be passed before 31st October so the answer to that is Yes. You’ve kind of asked 2 questions in one, which is why the answers are different.

Personally, I am now even more convinced that there is no Brexit Deal a majority of the current Parliament will support. They have utterly, utterly failed in their duties from my POV

It said that it withholds approval until all essential legislation in place. So, essentially, won't approve (or otherwise) until legislation is in place. I think.
But conversely, will approve once legislation is in place. So the deal is implicitly pre-approved, pending legislation?

but VONC surely once extension is agreed.

I don’t believe Corbyn will do it

But conversely, will approve once legislation is in place. So the deal is implicitly pre-approved, pending legislation?

I don’t think so. It means legislation has to be in place before a final vote is held on the deal.

BI doesn't have to actually "negotiate" an extension,
just sign & send the letter - the text of which was specified exactly in the Benn amendment

The EU would not need / want his advice on whether to grant it

We don't know if they decided during EUCO on Friday what to do about an extension if requested

• probably not, because of the risk of leaks when 27 govts are involved !

So they might hold a special EUCO on 28 Oct or even later, just to decide on extension

That would keep the pressure on MPs to pass the WA, since they won't be 100% sure if an extension would be granted

I think Monday would count as the 2nd reading of the WA bill, because the govt presented it today, even though they then withdrew it

Benn doesn't require negotiation, because if 3 months isn't agreed and something else is offered, Parliament gets to decide whether to accept what is offered if BoZo won't do it within (IIRC) 48 hours of it being offered.

It's not the WA, I don't think, BCF, it's the WAIB, I think.

Personally, I am now even more convinced that there is no Brexit Deal a majority of the current Parliament will support. They have utterly, utterly failed in their duties from my POV sad

I can see your point, but really they haven't been offered much of a choice have they?

This whole process has been risible from the start. May and the Tories made the mistake of assuming they knew exactly what would be the best and only interpretation of the Brexit vote in 2016. May pushed hers, and then Johnson decided to be a great white male and hold out for his ever-so-slightly worse one instead.

At no point have seriously Soft Brexit options been on the table. Once again we're playing the 'if only' games: they are only academic. But what should have happened is there should have been proper consultation on OPTIONS after 2016, and then those options should have been debated or put back to referendum.

Failure to do that has landed us all directly in the shit.

It is exactly the same kind of totally incompetent - or perhaps all too competent - stitch-up that transpired when Cameron gave Clegg his highly limited referendum on alternative voting systems to FPTP.

If the legislation is in place, maybe next week, isn't it a bit late for a vote on the agreement given the WAB would already be law? What happens if WAB is passed, but the Gov again loses the WA vote?

Personally, I am now even more convinced that there is no Brexit Deal a majority of the current Parliament will support. The voters will never forgive them. Keeping business in limbo for more than 3 years.

BJ promising contradictory things to different sides to get deal through...

...Including promising ERG chance of no deal...

Letwin amendment is passed, so there can’t be no deal exit. If BJ really wanted a deal, that’s not a problem, he could still do it. But instead he pulled the vote and has delayed. Why???

I suspect because he has promised the ERG no deal - the hardest Brexit - so they pulled support after letwin, and he wouldn’t get the votes for the deal today. He needs to fix this before they will vote for his deal

Might be pure cynicism but why else would be choose to delay the vote today - very weird.

One things for sure after listening today, he is lying to lots of people by clearly promising contradictory things, MPs can see this and don’t trust him, but what is the real truth 🤔

I think Labour are going to seek a PV before a GE ...

One things for sure after listening today, he is lying to lots of people by clearly promising contradictory things, MPs can see this and don’t trust him, but what is the real truth

I’m not sure anyone knows. Not even Johnson.

And I think they're going to look to do that by way of an amendment next week ...