Westminstenders: Showdown

[RedToothBrush]

Big week ahead.

Johnson has until Tuesday Afternoon to get his shit together for the EU.

He thinks it can be down, but still lots to do in that time.

This week we have the Queen's Speech too, which is going to be misused as a party political broadcast.

Remember if the government can't pass the QS, there's a crisis that gets generated as a direct result. Sticking in proposals that any liberal or leftie will struggle with, is deliberately provoking a crisis of that nature. A proposal of that type would have to be anti democratic in nature, like... Ermmm... Voter ID. Hell, well what do you know.

Johnson is still after his election because as it stands he's a passenger stuck in the runaway train of his own creation.

Talk of a deal breakthrough is still overstated too. The DUP and many of the usual ERG suspects have poured water on the idea. And many on the opposition benches are pushing hard on a confirmary ref being needed for a deal - they don't have the numbers yet, but talk is that they are close. We also have loyalist military making threats about an Irish Sea Border solution.

Time for Project Shit Meets Fan.

DUP not in agreement according to Huffpost

"And following the announcement of a deal, the DUP said it was still not onboard. “Has the EU changed its mind since 7am? You have our statement,” a party source told HuffPost

The DUP have repeated their earlier statement. They do not support the deal. No idea what the ERG are saying.

All Johnson needs to do is get it through Parliament on Saturday and for the EU27 to agree.

All...

I doubt if the EU are surprised, or even too dismayed

They long ago used up the EU eye-roll mountain

They've always known BJ is a fuckup, as well as a lying weasel

• they participated in these latest negotiations to oblige Varadkar and show Ireland they've gone the last mile, but with little hope of a feasible alternative WA that would pass the HoC.

They'll not be dismayed if the vice BJ put his own balls in is now bringing tears to his eyes
Unlike May, there is no personal sympathy for him

re the EU view on the WA itself:
the NI part of this WA is horrendously complicated - which they dislike - would take months to draft as a watertight treaty,
would require constant supervision once it's actually up & running
and would always be a (tiny) leak in the SM

imo, the EU think May's WA is the only feasible one at this stage, since it actually exists as an E27-approved legal document, and is the one they really want

ERG were making positive noises but obviously they won’t have seen the full text yet....

twitter.com/sundersays/status/1184592506249449473?s=21

If the Level Playing Field is not in the legally binding bit of the WA, just in the PD for future trade deal,

then that is another reason that the EU - except Ireland - won't be dismayed if this WA doesn't pass the HoC

If Johnson has a majority in Parliament he would fuck over the DUP as soon as night follows day. Almost looking forward to hear Brexiteers pretend they care about NI for a little longer.
If it wasn't all so ghastly

The Uk is now the last country I want to see in the EU ever. I'm at the point where I'm longing for the UK to finally be out, dealing with their own shit (of their own making) and leaving the EU alone

And sod the 16 million and the 3 million?

Thanks. As I and others have pointed out many times, the majority did not vote for this, or weren't allowed to vote.

The WA bill would just need to include a section in the bill that repeals that section of the Cross Border Trade Act

• which btw was an amendment specifically added by JRM to mess May about and prevent a deal

However, if the DUP won't vote for the WA,
then neither will at least some of the hardcore of the ERG, who want No Deal - gives them more cover to vote against

In which case, v unlikely that it has the votes
Labour would be whipping against, which would be why Corbyn doesn't want the Saturday sitting

• they would get even more aggro from voting against a WA than voting against a Saturday sitting

I wonder what bung the DUP are holding out for

More billions in areas that happen to be mostly Unionist ?
Maybe a guarantee that the Cash for Ash scandal won't be investigated further and that no prosecutions will be made ?

Probably a major sticking point is trusting a shameless liar not to sell them out as soon as convenient,
e.g. after a GE, with a very clear Sea border to get a US FTA

To be fair, bellini, the DUP don't give a wotsit over NI either. Only their own narrow viewpoint.

Labour will Be whipping against presumably

" From what we know, it seems the prime minister has negotiated an even worse deal than Theresa May’s, which was overwhelmingly rejected.
These proposals risk triggering a race to the bottom on rights and protections: putting food safety at risk, cutting environmental standards and workers’ rights, and opening up our NHS to a takeover by US private corporations.
This sell out deal won’t bring the country together and should be rejected. The best way to get Brexit sorted is to give the people the final say in a public vote.

Quite right @Timeywimey10 , that is their default position. And speaking of fault, it's obviously everyone else's fault that even an honest and true Englishman like Boris Johnson can't get a deal through.😂

Posted this on another post by mistake..Has anyone done any number crunching?

How many Tory MPs are there left-presumably there will be heavy whipping on them to vote yes.
Will any other parties vote for it? Maybe a few Labour?
What about the ERG? Presumably R-Mogg will vote yes?

Any news from Scotland?

What does this mean? ""Barnier confirms that the DUP will lose its veto on whether the new arrangements come into force."

Some detail...from Barnier

First, EU regulations will apply to all goods in Northern Ireland. This means checks at the border.
Second, NI will remain in the UK’s customs territory. It will therefore benefit from UK trade policy. But it will remain an entry point into the single market. So UK authorities will apply UK tariffs to countries coming from third countries as long as goods entering NI are not at risk of entering the single market. If they are at risk of entering the single market, EU tariffs will apply.
Third, on VAT, the plan will maintain the integrity of the single market, while respecting the UK’s digital wishes.
And, fourth, there will be a consent mechanism. Four years after the arrangements starts, the Northern Ireland assembly will decide by a simple majority if these arrangements stay.
Barnier confirms that the DUP will lose its veto on whether the new arrangements come into force. Under the plan proposed by Boris Johnson earlier this month, the new plan for NI would only have taken affect subject to a vote in the assembly - which the DUP would have been able to veto.

Revised WA and PD are here:

ec.europa.eu/commission/brexit-negotiations/negotiating-documents-article-50-negotiations-united-kingdom_en

Posted this on another post by mistake..Has anyone done any number crunching?

Assuming 10 Labour rebels voting with the Government and the DUP abstaining, I make it 298 - 298 without the independents, so it all depends on how those 36 independents split.

I hope Johnson can't get the votes and his so called " great deal" fails. Not only because it sounds crap and worse than TM's, but also to humiliate him and make the twat realise he's not going to get a better deal than her, just because he's got a penis and went to bloody Eton.

And as PP said earlier, maybe if he had not wasted time farting around on his unofficial electioneering trail, telling lies and causing mayhem, and instead spent the last three months proactively working towards a deal with the EU, he'd have had more chance of coming up with something that everyone could have supported. Stupid twat.

Interesting isn't it? The amended WA and PD promptly , transparently and professionally up on the EU website.

In contrast all there's been from the Tory gov is some dumbed down very amateurish spin.

"The Uk is now the last country I want to see in the EU ever"

This has been a growing public opinion within the EU, that so far the leaders are resisting,
also resisting the temptation to respond in kind to the hateful rhetoric that has been spewed by some Brexiters

The E27 have shown a sense of responsibility on Brexit that successive Tory govts lack
and the EU Commission / Barnier's Task Force 50 team have shown impressive competence

• though maybe looks even better than it is, because of the contrast with the shower of incompetents on the UK govt side

It's embarassing that 27 very different countries can keep a unified policy all this time,
whereas 630 or so UK MPs have never been able to agree on anything, except what they don't want

I'd expect the EU to keep trying to avoid No Deal right up to about June,
when they have to cut the UK loose or risk their vital 7-year budget negotiations & approval

There is only a small chance that they decide to deny a further extension force in order to force the HoC to finally make a decision
If so, it'll be a deliberate strategy, not a fit of pique

I hope Johnson can't get the votes and his so called " great deal" hmm fails.

So does he, really - he'll then get his election with no penalty for his 'leave on the 31st, do or die' pledge and a splintered opposition. His nightmare scenario is the WA/PD passing on saturday with a 2nd referendum attached...postponing his election until after the ref.

I thought that the EU was against the review after whatever numbers of years on the ground they dont trust neither the british governemnt or the DUP/NI assembly?

And how is anyone going to know if goods arriving in NI is for national consumption for to be fed into he EU market?

I can only see holes in that agreement (that benefit the UK btw). But still news is that the pound has rallied and is up by 1%. It keeps markets happy then...

Lisa O’Carroll @lisaocarroll

So my understanding is: Boris Johnson decided to do deal without the DUP. He knows he won't get the deal through parliament, but he will get what he always wanted - a general election with a deal that he can wave at the electorate.

Barnier switching to English for the section of his speech about the north of Ireland, and his comments in peace, are appreciated.

And then it made me laugh when he has stuck to French in reply to Laura K.

I hope that the mainland European press realise that the idiots in Westminster and the bastards who shape our newspaper media
DO NOT
represent the business people and tourists with whom they have dealt and will deal in future

Saturday just got more important.
My Toothbrush may need sharpening though