Westminstenders: Showdown

[RedToothBrush]

Big week ahead.

Johnson has until Tuesday Afternoon to get his shit together for the EU.

He thinks it can be down, but still lots to do in that time.

This week we have the Queen's Speech too, which is going to be misused as a party political broadcast.

Remember if the government can't pass the QS, there's a crisis that gets generated as a direct result. Sticking in proposals that any liberal or leftie will struggle with, is deliberately provoking a crisis of that nature. A proposal of that type would have to be anti democratic in nature, like... Ermmm... Voter ID. Hell, well what do you know.

Johnson is still after his election because as it stands he's a passenger stuck in the runaway train of his own creation.

Talk of a deal breakthrough is still overstated too. The DUP and many of the usual ERG suspects have poured water on the idea. And many on the opposition benches are pushing hard on a confirmary ref being needed for a deal - they don't have the numbers yet, but talk is that they are close. We also have loyalist military making threats about an Irish Sea Border solution.

Time for Project Shit Meets Fan.

Barnier says in reply to that BJ told Juncker that he has confidence in his ability to win the vote and that that's all he can say.

....we all know how BJ's confidence in his own abilities exceed his actual abilities

Barnier says in reply to a question in the press conference that BJ told Juncker that he has confidence in his ability to win the vote and that that's all he can say.

....we all know how BJ's confidence in his own abilities exceed his actual abilities

I wish my French were good enough to pick up all Barnier’s nuance.

I''d expect the EU to keep trying to avoid No Deal right up to about June,
when they have to cut the UK loose or risk their vital 7-year budget negotiations & approval

Yep I agree there.

And I also agree that the deal is there to be rejected because then BJ looks like the good guy and its the HoC that looks bad in the eyes of the public.
Maybe the EU actually knows that well and is banking on it too. No agreemnt on the deal, extension and a GE that could bring a new government that will act more like an adult than the previous ones??

It's embarassing that 27 very different countries can keep a unified policy all this time, whereas 630 or so UK MPs have never been able to agree on anything, except what they don't want

Why embarassing? Agreeing what you don't want is an essential part of coming to a sensible conclusion surely? And it's not as if there's 630 different opinions, just different factions.

This sell out deal won’t bring the country together and should be rejected. The best way to get Brexit sorted is to give the people the final say in a public vote.

Unless there is an overwhelming vote one way or the other, it won't get Brexit sorted. Furthermore, the worry I have with another Referendum is that unless the rules are drawn very tightly, Cambridge Analytica or some other outfit, will be ready to spread propaganda. This will fool enough people again, as it did last time, because until Cameron called his referendum, the vast majority of the population neither knew nor cared about the EU.

Agree with Peregrina
If the electoral commission is concerned about the validity of the voting process, so should we be

EUCO almost certanly will approve the WA in principle, since Barnier has been keeping the E27 informed throughout the negotiations
and that is Juncker's recommendation in his letter:

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/letterpresidenttjunckertoopresidenttuskk_0.pdf

Jean-Claude Juncker@JunckerEU

Where there is a will, there is a #deal - we have one!

It’s a fair and balanced agreement for the EU and the UK and it is testament to our commitment to find solutions.

I recommend that #EUCO endorses this deal.

< They'll want to show that again it is the HoC refusing the WA, if this happens, not the EU

However, like the HoC, they can't approve any legal text, because their has been insufficient tie for the Sherpas to analyse and summarise >

Any news from Scotland?

At the SNP Conference it was made very clear that the SNP would continue to vote against any deal that involves pulling Scotland out of the SM/CU against its will.

So that'll be a No.

So what is the timetable between now and Saturday then?

The 31st October brexit adverts have stopped for me on Twitter. What a waste of money.

Maybe the EU actually knows that well and is banking on it too. No agreemnt on the deal, extension and a GE that could bring a new government that will act more like an adult than the previous ones??

From the EU perspective, even if this same non-grown up government of Johnson’s gets back in, they’re in no worse position than they are now. Especially if Tories have a majority and so can dump DUP and cut NI loose for a straightforward border in Irish Sea.

It's embarassing that 27 very different countries can keep a unified policy all this time, whereas 630 or so UK MPs have never been able to agree on anything, except what they don't want A pox on all their houses

HeyNot The WA is worse for the UK than May's WA
For the EU, it is about the same, although they will dislike the complexity of maintaining the NI arrangement

Their 3 requirements have been satisfied:
Exit bill, citizens rights, no checks / border within Ireland

Any future FTA would be very minimal, probably just a tariff-free one, so very restricted access to the SM
The effect on the UK economy has been estimated to be little better than No Deal
So, better for vulture capitalists and hard right Tory idealogues, but shit for the country as a whole

The WA in effect makes the backstop permanent - unlike May's WA - because it remains unless both sides vote to remove it,
which Nationalists presumably would never do

There will be checks in the Irish Sea on goods coming from GB to NI, so the SM is protected

There is a potential tiny leak into the SM, but NI is about 1% of the EU GDP, so is an acceptable risk / amount, whereas the UK as a whole is not

"Agreeing what you don't want is an essential part of coming to a sensible conclusion surely? "

That would have been fine for say the first 6 months after the ref

After more than 3 years, I expect more from the HoC than agreeing what they don't want

Irish reunification and Scottish Independence here we come then.

I expect more from the HoC than agreeing what they don't want

The extreme right and the DUP both know exactly what they want. Their problem is, they know they can't openly sell it to the general public. So they have to do it by devious means.

Sam Coates Sky@SamCoatesSky

Deal latest - Experts say this doesn’t give the guarantees on a softer brexit as Theresa May’s deal.

In May’s deal there were legally binding commitments on level playing field.

This kicks that can down the road, and could mean a harder or a softer brexit dependent on PM

Farage would prefer an extension and election over this deal. You could not make this up.

That's assuming there was anything to 'agree' on and that the options were static but they were not. The picture has changed over time as the difficulties involved have become clearer and as deals have been presented.

within their factions people have agreed - agreed that Brexit is a terrible idea, agreed that they cannot vote for a deal with the backstop etc etc. agreement cannot be made to happen where views are diametrically opposed

What would you have liked them to agree on?

I want this deal, however shit it is. But I don't think we're going to get it.

Then a Labour refusal to move a VoNC or a GE, the PM goes to the Queen to say he doesn't have the confidence of the house even though he can't get them to vote on it, she calls Corbyn in, we have a dreadful week where he tries to form a government followed by about 20 VoNC motions, somebody - BJ? - finds a loophole in the FTPA, or the Queen dissolves parliament, and we have a GE. Then a huge Tory majority and probably no-deal. Christ!

This was one of my main fears about them voting down May's WA:

not just that we might No Deal,
but that there might be a later WA allowing the hard Brexit which May's WA would prevent

I feared that this sort of WA was what many in the ERG were holding out for
It doesn't give the vulture capitalists all the opportunities of No Deal, but it gives most of them, with a lower risk of the Tories being voted out early on.
Only NI is fully protected

If Parliament votes against this on Saturday, I think we are going to end up with a GE and a Tory majority.
I think the Labour / Liberal vote will be split too much.
We are going to leave and probably in January with a Tory elected government

Arse Agree on May's WA,
and - earlier when there was time - agree on dropping red lines and on negotiating a PD with a much softer SM-type future relationship

Refusing to choose can only continue until the EU refuse to extend further, which will be around June at the latest

Choose from an existing option: WA / Revoke / No Deal