Westminstenders: Showdown

[RedToothBrush]

Big week ahead.

Johnson has until Tuesday Afternoon to get his shit together for the EU.

He thinks it can be down, but still lots to do in that time.

This week we have the Queen's Speech too, which is going to be misused as a party political broadcast.

Remember if the government can't pass the QS, there's a crisis that gets generated as a direct result. Sticking in proposals that any liberal or leftie will struggle with, is deliberately provoking a crisis of that nature. A proposal of that type would have to be anti democratic in nature, like... Ermmm... Voter ID. Hell, well what do you know.

Johnson is still after his election because as it stands he's a passenger stuck in the runaway train of his own creation.

Talk of a deal breakthrough is still overstated too. The DUP and many of the usual ERG suspects have poured water on the idea. And many on the opposition benches are pushing hard on a confirmary ref being needed for a deal - they don't have the numbers yet, but talk is that they are close. We also have loyalist military making threats about an Irish Sea Border solution.

Time for Project Shit Meets Fan.

We all hoped exMIL would experience a Damascene conversion, if only to stop the forced Rush Limbaugh sessions...

Ideology beats reality for some, like math's ex-MIL

Alberto Nardelli✔@AlbertoNardelli

NEW: This is where I understand the Brexit talks, and details of the agreement under discussion, to be at:

1. Northern Ireland would be part of the UK's customs territory,
   however it would follow EU customs rules (ie no customs border on the island of Ireland).

2. Goods that carry no risk (for example the personal goods of someone moving to Northern Ireland from Britain + list of goods that will be covered by criteria set by the joint committee) will be exempt.

3. There will be a rebate mechanism.
   This will have to adhere to state aid rules.

4. The Northern Ireland text fundamentally builds on Feb. 2018 text (ie the Northern Ireland only backstop), reconciling it with UK requests

5. Main parts of the rest of the withdrawal agreement (citizens' rights, UK financial commitments and transition) fundamentally unchanged from current agreement

6. As mentioned earlier (and as reported by @tconnellyRTE), VAT is still the main open issue:
   UK has asked for Northern Ireland to not be subject to the EU's VAT regime, which is problematic for the EU.

mentions 7) On consent there will be a reference in the agreement to the mechanism + a unilateral UK declaration
mentions The mechanism would work as follows:

• after four years, Stormont decides by simple majority whether to maintain the arrangements for four more years. If vote is affirmative, after four more years there would be another vote if this has cross-community support

mentions - if the vote is against the arrangements, there would be a two year cooling off period

• if Stormont is not in a position to vote, the arrangements stay

mentions 8) On the political declaration, UK has asked for a specific reference to a future relationship based on an FTA with zero quotas and tariffs + no references to a customs union.
< but this is legally non-binding, as it can't bind a future govt, just helps WA get Tory support in the HoC >

mentions 9) On level playing field provisions, which have proven to be another stumbling block,
EU made clear LPF guarantees have to be stronger than in most FTAs because of geography.
Agreement requires appropriate implementation mechanisms and a framework for fair future competition.

mentions 10) This is what happens tomorrow if there an agreement in time:

• EUCO conclusions to endorse agreement and call for its ratification.

UK expected to have a Commons vote on Saturday. EU27 ambassadors could meet again, and agreement then goes to the European Parliament

mentions - The EUCO summit is expected to kick off with a short intervention by PM Johnson,
and that will be followed by a discussion at 27

imo whether they can get such a deal through the HoC depends on how many rebels vote for it :

The Tory rebels like Hammond
& the Labour Leavers

“Some allies of Mr Johnson said that he could put a deal to the Commons without the DUP. “Once Boris gets a deal we go into our own tunnel in Westminster,” one said. “Our whipping is going to be medieval.” But a member of the European Research Group of Tory Brexiteers said: “If the DUP aren’t on board, there’s no way it gets through.””

Medieval whipping... for the ERG. But they’ve withdrawn the whip from more than 20 other MP’s they need.

We made it to Summit day. Again. (Nothing erudite to add)

DUP saying they can’t support the deal as it stands. What a surprise.

Also hearing Labour will vote against house sitting on Saturday.

Also hearing Labour will vote against house sitting on Saturday.

Why on earth would they do that?

So Stormont gets to have more brexit fun every 4 years? Lucky them. And what happens if after 4 years they vote against the new arrangements? Hard border on Ireland or is the backstop still there?

They are afraid it’s a stunt according to Peston Bear

I guess Labour might argue that they need time to read any WA before they start debating it. And of course if they don't sit, it can't pass and an extension is guaranteed.

But what’s the worst that could happen even if it is a stunt?

Refusing to sit when they moaned about proroguing just makes them look like they are running scared - which they are really

Also hearing Labour will vote against house sitting on Saturday.

I did ask upthread what happened if the vote failed ? Presumably no Saturday sitting then ? Means Boris has to get his vote tommorow.

Incidentally, this Section 55 amendment that Jo Maugham is taking to court was added by JRM apparently.

So if it fucks Boris Brexit, he'll know where to put the blame ....

It's not running scared if they genuinely feel that they need time to read it.

DUP says no. What a surprise.

We don't yet know if the govt will move the motion for a Saturday sitting. It's tabled, but they don't have to put it to a vote. They may feel it would only lead to further humiliation.

Morning all. I wish I knew what the hell was going on!

Refusing to sit when they moaned about proroguing just makes them look like they are running scared - which they are really

The last person Id regard having a credible view on anything Labour does is you Bear, in fact I'm probably not the only person who thinks so tbh

There is a new danger emerging here now.

We might get a deal now.
But if it fails to pass the HoC guess who gets the blame politically?
Johnson doesn't lose then.
We still have Benn Antics too.
And the failure of the UK parliament to pass a deal will not go down well in the EU after all this, despite their fears that Johnson hasn't the numbers.

I still don’t understand if those 10 DUP votes are necessary or not! Is he not going to lose even without them? Is he hoping for a domino effect where if one sees enough people going for it they’ll go for it even if they wouldn’t??

Regarding this:
Interesting poll!

Finchley & Golders Green Westminster voting intention:

LDEM: 41% (+34)
CON: 29% (-18)
LAB: 25% (-19)
GRN: 3% (+1)
BREX: 2% (+2)

That’s where Jc has his allotment ;-) and yes, old Tatcher seat, and very strong Jewish community so despite being on the border with a dominant Labour seat which voted 85% remain it didn’t swing at the last elections, nor at the referendum if I well remember

If it doesn't pass by the end of Saturday it's extension time legally.