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Brexit

Westminstenders: Showdown

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 13/10/2019 20:22

Big week ahead.

Johnson has until Tuesday Afternoon to get his shit together for the EU.

He thinks it can be down, but still lots to do in that time.

This week we have the Queen's Speech too, which is going to be misused as a party political broadcast.

Remember if the government can't pass the QS, there's a crisis that gets generated as a direct result. Sticking in proposals that any liberal or leftie will struggle with, is deliberately provoking a crisis of that nature. A proposal of that type would have to be anti democratic in nature, like... Ermmm... Voter ID. Hell, well what do you know.

Johnson is still after his election because as it stands he's a passenger stuck in the runaway train of his own creation.

Talk of a deal breakthrough is still overstated too. The DUP and many of the usual ERG suspects have poured water on the idea. And many on the opposition benches are pushing hard on a confirmary ref being needed for a deal - they don't have the numbers yet, but talk is that they are close. We also have loyalist military making threats about an Irish Sea Border solution.

Time for Project Shit Meets Fan.

OP posts:
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Rhubarbisevil · 17/10/2019 09:26

Pmk right at the end of the thread!

HeyNotInMyName · 17/10/2019 09:38

When are we going to hear loud and clear from newspapers and politicians the realoty of what is hapening here?
That BJ is agreeing to a WA that is worse than the one TM had. Or rather worse for the UK, one that is making th explosion of the UK a rel possibility but would give him the possibility to do wat he wants, complete disregulation in England?

I'm so annoyed at JC for not taking a stance about what sort of breit he wants and what sort of future he envisages for the UK.
Annoyed at the apathy as if no one is able to see how crazy that agreement is.
And annoyed at the EU for bending over to BJ requests (they said they were against a vote in 4 years time in NI to maybe change AGAIN their status!).

What I see is that once again, the UK/HMG has pushed to get crazy concessions from everyone/MPs/the EU and is somehow managing to be a bully enough to get what they want.
I'm angry.
The Uk is now the last country I want to see in the EU ever. I'm at the point where I'm longing for the UK to finally be out, dealing with their own shit (of their own making) and leaving the EU alone.

But this politic of bullying to get what you want is annoying the heck out of me.

HeyNotInMyName · 17/10/2019 09:42

And I am sure he is going ti use the same tactic with MPs to get that WA through btw.
Here is a WA to avoid No Deal, How dare ou reject it and risk taking the country down that awful path when you've made so much effort to avoid it.....

I fear a GE tbh. Mainly because Im sure it will be all about party politics and own self gain rather than actually putting on the table what sort of future they want for the UK.
The NHS s an excellent example of it/ Lets say we want the NHS and will never privatise it whilst slowly doing it hoping that no one will really notice until its too late or will have got used to it anyway and will brush it ff with a 'Well what can you? It wasnt sustainable anyway' type of answer (which you already see btw)

DGRossetti · 17/10/2019 09:42

Who's got a spare half hour ? It's very long (over MNs 15,000 character limit) Smile

www.thefullbrexit.com/flaw-in-the-crown

thefullbrexit.com
The Flaw in the Crown | The Full Brexit
45-57 minutes

“The British government has responsibilities on the island of Ireland and Brexit must recognize them.” These were the words of Ireland’s foreign minister, Simon Coveney, as he responded to yet another British proposal for the organisation of customs and regulatory checks on the Irish border. These checks will be required by the EU in the event that Britain leaves the EU without a trade deal. So far, the EU and the Irish government have been insisting that the Good Friday Agreement (GFA) means that Britain’s responsibilities include ensuring that there are no customs checks on the Irish border. The “backstop” arrangement is the result, and this has proved to be a critical obstacle to a Brexit deal.

Coveney is obviously correct that the British government has responsibilities on the island of Ireland. Under the terms of the GFA, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland retains legal sovereignty over the Six Counties of north-eastern Ireland. However, Coveney’s bald assertion overlooks the deeply paradoxical character of Britain’s responsibilities under the GFA. One paradox is that Britain is obliged to deny that it has ultimate responsibility for the territory. This contradictory constitutional arrangement is praised by its supporters as “constructive ambiguity”, but it has paralysing consequences for Northern Ireland, which may now spread to the rest of Britain. A further contradiction is that the UK state also has unambiguous responsibilities to the people of Great Britain and, following the referendum decision to leave the EU, these responsibilities come into conflict with the GFA.

Above all, Britain’s responsibility is to resolve these contradictions. It can do this by offering rather more than Dublin is asking for. The British people should get behind the reunification of Ireland in a single republic, and give Northern Ireland the chance to enjoy truly responsible government, an opportunity that has long been denied it.

There is rich irony in the fact that it should be the obscure political boundary that winds its way through the Irish countryside that has proved to be the most significant obstacle to Britain’s attempt to reassert its sovereignty by leaving the EU. For decades the existence of that border, and the enforcement of British sovereignty to its north, denied real self-determination to the Irish nation. In 1918, following their victory in a general election, Irish nationalists declared independence from Britain, then fought a War of Independence against Britain. That war only ended when the nationalist leadership agreed with the British government that the Empire could retain six counties of its oldest colony, in which a loyal majority could be gerrymandered. The partition of Ireland led to decades of instability and violence and, ever since, internationalists, democrats and socialists have agreed with Irish republicans that Ireland should be reunited in the cause of the self-determination of the Irish people.

That argument remains valid. The unity of Ireland is still a condition of the sovereignty of its people. However, the Brexit debacle is proving that the division of Ireland also amounts to a major weakness in the sovereignty of the British people. Brexit is a test of the sovereignty of the British state. The difficulty that the British state is experiencing in leaving the EU has exposed just how weak that sovereignty has become. Britain’s continuing rule in Northern Ireland is making a particularly significant contribution to that weakness. This should not surprise us, because British rule in Ireland has always entailed weak sovereignty.

Making a success of Brexit requires the end of the union with Northern Ireland precisely because Brexit is an assertion of the sovereignty of the British people. To see why this is so, let’s begin with the backstop and work back from there.

The Irish Backstop

The backstop is intended to guarantee that, in the event that the UK and the EU fail to agree a trade deal during the implementation period after the UK has formally left the EU, there will be no changes to existing arrangements on the Irish border unless both parties agree to them. For as long as it lasts, the backstop requires that the UK remain within the Customs Union for goods and that Northern Ireland effectively remains within the Single Market. The backstop would, therefore, give the EU an effective veto on whether or not the UK can leave the Customs Union and make its own trade deals, yet since Britain would have left the EU it would not have a say in EU trade policy. An alternative version keeps Northern Ireland alone in the Single Market and Customs Union, entailing a trade border within the “United” Kingdom.

The anxiety this generates among British Leavers is exacerbated by the EU’s refusal to consider a number of technological solutions to take customs and regulatory checks away from the border area that have been proposed by the British government. Technical experts have long argued that these solutions already exist and are used elsewhere, requiring nothing like the border posts and guards conjured up by talk of a “hard” border.[1] The EU’s rubbishing of these proposals, and its unwillingness or inability to compromise, raises the prospect that, in the absence of a trade deal, the UK would be in the Customs Union forever (see May’s Deal Threatens Popular Sovereignty: It’s Time for a Full Brexit).

The backstop remains the most significant obstacle to getting a Withdrawal Agreement that is acceptable to parliament. The backstop is far from the only problem with the Theresa May’s Withdrawal Agreement. However, more than any other part, the backstop made a mockery of Leavers’ central demand to “take back control”, as the referendum campaign slogan put it. Pro-Brexit MPs’ rejection of it has created the political impasse that Remainers have since exploited with a vigorous fear campaign over the idea of leaving the EU without a deal, which they now hope will allow them to block Brexit completely.

Last year, I co-authored two articles arguing that for the UK to leave the EU’s trading system would require the UK government to drop its agreement to the backstop and to exercise its sovereignty in Northern Ireland.[2] Even if this meant no more than some cameras and areas for spot checks near the border, the UK government would have to say to the EU that the UK electorate had decided that the UK was leaving, that Northern Ireland was part of the UK and that that was that. Our point, then, was that Brexit was a “test of sovereignty”. Whether we liked it or not, the people of Ireland North and South had voted for the GFA, and that had left legal sovereignty over the Six Counties with the UK. The UK had now decided to leave the EU. If the government was unable to drop the backstop, that would prove that the UK was not able to exercise its sovereignty – not politically capable of leaving the EU’s legal regime without the EU’s agreement.

(contd)

HeyNotInMyName · 17/10/2019 09:43

Sorry about the spelling mistakes. Typing too fast and being annoyed doesnt work together.

lonelyplanetmum · 17/10/2019 09:48

Massive climb down from the DUP. Don't you think that behind the scenes the DUP could just be using crude negotiation tactics by holding things up for a bigger payment? I'm probably cynical but that's what happens in other commercial negotiations.

If it hadn't been for the cash first ash business you would accept it's all about the principle but those events suggest money speaks. Which actually is sort of understandable as it must be clear that they are fighting to be part of something that under the current U.K. government is prepared to sell them down the river. Wouldn't that mean your mindset starts to shift?

As a light hearted aside I saw the ' jobs lost to Brexit comment that

'The 17.4 Million people who ‘knew exactly what they voted for’, are still waiting with less than 48 hours to go -with bated breath ‘to find out exactly what they voted for?’

Bearbehind · 17/10/2019 09:50

The last person Id regard having a credible view on anything Labour does is you Bear, in fact I'm probably not the only person who thinks so tbh

Resorting to insults rather than discussion with me as ever just 🤔

Bearbehind · 17/10/2019 09:56

I still don’t get how Labour come out well by voting down a Saturday sitting.

Yes they need to read the text but so does everyone else

They are just handing Boris an excuse for failing to deliver Brexit by 31st on a plate if they don’t sit on Saturday

He’ll be the hero who did all he could whilst cowardly Corbyn wouldn’t even sit to discuss it - how can Labour supporters not see that?

DGRossetti · 17/10/2019 10:10

.

Westminstenders: Showdown
taytosandwich · 17/10/2019 10:25

Have just seen Labour MPs are being whipped to back a 2nd referendum. Could this actually happen? Do we dare to hope?

ListeningQuietly · 17/10/2019 10:25

If MPs chicken out on being in London when the rest of us are, I will judge them accordingly.

TheMShip · 17/10/2019 10:36

Multiple reports that a deal is done.

fedup21 · 17/10/2019 10:38

Let’s see some detail.

Wonder how much the DUP have been bunged?

ArseDarkly · 17/10/2019 10:39

That's the deal that DUP stated they won't support presumably?

lonelyplanetmum · 17/10/2019 10:40

Juncker says this so must be true

Where there is a will, there is a #deal - we have one! It’s a fair and balanced agreement for the EU and the UK and it is testament to our commitment to find solutions. I recommend that #EUCO endorses this deal.

Somerville · 17/10/2019 10:40

If it hadn't been for the cash first ash business you would accept it's all about the principle but those events suggest money speaks.

Cash for ash made some of the DUP and many of their associates a lot of money personally. Bungs from Westminster are - theoretically at least - to be spent on the whole of NI. Obviously there might be other inducements that can be included too. But all that doesn’t matter if in upcoming election DUP supporters are so pissed off that they switch to the UUP/Alliance or don’t turn out to vote. The DUP stand to lose their power, influence, jobs... everything.

I’m sure DUP are being sat on hard by the government. “If you don’t back this now then we’ll have an election and vote it through without you - you’ll have this and no “development fund” for NI.”
So they’ll be weighing up all the options for what will happen if they say no.
Even if they think Johnson can win outright majority at next election, its probably better for them if this agreement is imposed on NI rather than them being seen as willingly getting it through. But they may have greater fears that lead them to vote for it. No deal is certainly one - for all their bravado, they’re appalled by prospect, as all the polling shows, that it will lead quickly to a reunited Ireland.
I don’t think they’re bothered by thought of a referendum. They could continue frothing publicly over the antichrist EU then in the privacy of polling booth vote to revoke.

MockersthefeMANist · 17/10/2019 10:42

The Pantheon of Idiots has a new member this morning. Robert Jenrick on R4 Today attempted to blame the Queen for the Queen's Speech, and suggested that the WA could be fully scrutinised in a day because the one-page Benn bill had managed that.

taytosandwich · 17/10/2019 10:43

If the DUP aren't supporting it, it's probably alright.

bellinisurge · 17/10/2019 10:44

All down to Saturday then.
It's on the DUP and the ERG.

Peregrina · 17/10/2019 10:46

But I assume that Johnson has to get the agreement of Parliament?

BercowsFlyingFlamingo · 17/10/2019 10:48

And the EU27

lonelyplanetmum · 17/10/2019 10:48

In my head -reading Johnson's announcement that "we gave a great deal" sounds as if it is being said in Trump's voice.

Expecting a podium moment presumably full of carrot or stick comments towards parliament?

fedup21 · 17/10/2019 10:49

If parliament vote it down (on Saturday?), then what?

CrunchyCarrot · 17/10/2019 10:49

DUP not in agreement, according to BBC

ArseDarkly · 17/10/2019 10:50

fedup21 - extension and referendum or general election

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