Westministenders: Conference Cult

[RedToothBrush]

Is it over yet?

The Tory Party Conference is in full swing in the Manchester Rain, and is proving to be its usual fun.

Johnson is caught up in all sorts of allegations of abuses of power - the non-declaration of his "friendship" to a busty blonde whom was getting a large tax payer grant, and then there the Odey question after his sister said he was under the control of the Hedge Funders.

And thats before we talk about the 40 hospitals, his provocative language and how many times he can say the word surrender.

There is lots of distancing from Lyton Crosby. And accusations that Johnson has gone 'rogue' only listening to the wisdom of Cummings and Symonds.

The Queen apparently has asked for advice as to under what circumstance she can dismiss a PM.

AND NO ONE IS EVEN TALKING ABOUT A DEAL.

What a stunning surprise.

I see the US has slapped a tariff of 25% on some EU goods including sweaters made in UK and scotch whiskey.

What will happen after Brexit?

Yes indeed Foldy

Actually what I really want to say to that is "utter cunts"

Rafael Behr@rafaelbehr

It is possible, is it not, that Johnson cooked this "Stormont lock" up to Arlene Foster specs,

without even a moment's thought about inter-communal implications of handing so much privilege to the DUP in a model for the future long-term status of NI and its border with ROI.

Poll / Stats Geeks:

Interesting analysis on how the next GE may depend on 2 biases in Leave / Remain vote distribution:

https://mobile.twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1179382200812343296

Leonardo Carella@leonardocarella

Why a split anti-Brexit vote may not be as good for the Conservatives as we assume.
A thread (1)
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< stats stuff >
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Conclusions:
- Leave parties have an in-built advantage due to the ratio of Con-to-BXP share.

But remain parties may have an in-built advantage due to territorial differentiation of their vote
(if you add in SNP and PC,it's even starker, given that these are ultra-territorial).

• The way those two biases interact with each other will decide the results of the next election.

John Crace reviews BJ's speech 😂

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/02/more-vacuity-than-vision-in-johnsons-after-dinner-chat-to-the-faithfull

Minutes before the Supreme Leader’s speech the cabinet filed into the hall like Stepford Wives and took their seats.

Never before have so many mediocrities received such a long standing ovation.

Moments later Stanley Johnson and Carrie Symonds got an even more enthusiastic reception.

All hail the man whose sperm had created Boris!
All hail the lucky woman who shared Boris’s bed!
The audience was not worthy

Conservatives to look into bullying claims after activist dies

Another young Conservative dies
Are all our parties toxic ?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/02/conservatives-to-look-into-bullying-claims-after-activist-dies

The Conservative party has said it will look into the circumstances of the death of a young activist who alleged she had been the victim of bullying and abuse within the party.
....
Several tweets made allegations of bullying, abuse and sexual assault within the party, with one reading:

“There is a reason we don’t feel safe at conference.”

If the EU don’t find BJ’s deal acceptable (and though I haven’t had a chance to review in detail,
I can see why they probably will), i think the best thing they can do is say: “Thank you for your proposal. We believe it could form the basis for a deal. In order to reach that deal, we need to conduct some detailed analysis on the customs checking arrangements etc. This will take a minimum of 4 weeks, after which we will hopefully have clarified it’s workability and in a position to finalise negotiations with a view to signing some time in November.”....

Then sit back as the Tories tear themselves apart between then”do-or-die Leave on 31 Oct” brigade (even with their deal in the offing), and those who won’t leave with a no-deal if their deal is in touching distance.

A GE ensues and the Leave vote is split down the middle with the Tories and a strengthened Brexit Party, and the resulting Parliament revokes!

"We believe it could form the basis for a deal."

No, the EU can't possibly say that

Too dangerous to even hint that any of it is acceptable,
especially to talk of signing it in November

If there is an extension because of the Benn bill, such a statement could make it look like the EU are making massive concessions and / or then reneging.
It would probably also worry people in Ireland that they would be dumped

The EU would probably stick to non-committal statements, unless they decide it is no longer in their interest to string it out and hence they refuse an extension

New thread in the morning!

Local paper carrying a story that schools have been warned that they
may get more migrant children after a ND Brexit. The Education Dept have clearly downplayed the impact:

In a section headed Potential Challenges to Schools and Communities, the document states: "Potential for increased numbers of migrants arriving in Kent as a consequence of the increased opportunity afforded by congestion on the continent, including unaccompanied asylum-seeking children."

The council said it was just one element of advice and guidance being offered and there was no suggestion that KCC was expecting an increase.
................
"We are not saying the issues and scenarios discussed in the Brexit guidance will happen, but that they could and we should be prepared for that.
...............
"This may simply mean an increase in the numbers of children requiring a school place in a specific locality, or it may have wider implications on the resources for schools.

"For example, due to the levels of additional needs these young people may have, this could result in increased pastoral support being required within a school."

Good explanation and comment in Irish Times ...

Irish~Time's~border~proposal

(Sorry about the apostrophe.)

It's somewhat obvious that there will be an increase in people seeking asylum attempting to cross in lorries if ND Brexit occurs. There will also be more deaths when they get stuck in refrigerated lorries for potentially days on end.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3707780-Westminstenders-The-Slow-No?watched=1
New thread

With regards to who would lead a GNU, and I know that a lot of us have strong opinions on this, I personally don't think any of the current party leaders are suitable, although by rights, as leader of the next biggest party, Corbyn should have first dibs at trying to form a Government.

But really, it shouldn't be 'first dibs' at anything - it should be, who among the current crop of MPs has the potential to unite the country and find compromises which both a majority of Leavers and Remainers can live with? That most certainly isn't Boris Johnson.