Westministenders: Conference Cult

[RedToothBrush]

Is it over yet?

The Tory Party Conference is in full swing in the Manchester Rain, and is proving to be its usual fun.

Johnson is caught up in all sorts of allegations of abuses of power - the non-declaration of his "friendship" to a busty blonde whom was getting a large tax payer grant, and then there the Odey question after his sister said he was under the control of the Hedge Funders.

And thats before we talk about the 40 hospitals, his provocative language and how many times he can say the word surrender.

There is lots of distancing from Lyton Crosby. And accusations that Johnson has gone 'rogue' only listening to the wisdom of Cummings and Symonds.

The Queen apparently has asked for advice as to under what circumstance she can dismiss a PM.

AND NO ONE IS EVEN TALKING ABOUT A DEAL.

[Peregrina]

With regards to who would lead a GNU, and I know that a lot of us have strong opinions on this, I personally don't think any of the current party leaders are suitable, although by rights, as leader of the next biggest party, Corbyn should have first dibs at trying to form a Government.

But really, it shouldn't be 'first dibs' at anything - it should be, who among the current crop of MPs has the potential to unite the country and find compromises which both a majority of Leavers and Remainers can live with? That most certainly isn't Boris Johnson.

[RedToothBrush]

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3707780-Westminstenders-The-Slow-No?watched=1
New thread

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

It's somewhat obvious that there will be an increase in people seeking asylum attempting to cross in lorries if ND Brexit occurs. There will also be more deaths when they get stuck in refrigerated lorries for potentially days on end.

[lonelyplanetmum]

Good explanation and comment in Irish Times ...

Irish~Time's~border~proposal

(Sorry about the apostrophe.)

[JeSuisPoulet]

Local paper carrying a story that schools have been warned that they
may get more migrant children after a ND Brexit. The Education Dept have clearly downplayed the impact:

In a section headed Potential Challenges to Schools and Communities, the document states: "Potential for increased numbers of migrants arriving in Kent as a consequence of the increased opportunity afforded by congestion on the continent, including unaccompanied asylum-seeking children."

The council said it was just one element of advice and guidance being offered and there was no suggestion that KCC was expecting an increase.
................
"We are not saying the issues and scenarios discussed in the Brexit guidance will happen, but that they could and we should be prepared for that.
...............
"This may simply mean an increase in the numbers of children requiring a school place in a specific locality, or it may have wider implications on the resources for schools.

"For example, due to the levels of additional needs these young people may have, this could result in increased pastoral support being required within a school."

[tobee]

New thread in the morning!

[BigChocFrenzy]

"We believe it could form the basis for a deal."

No, the EU can't possibly say that

Too dangerous to even hint that any of it is acceptable,
especially to talk of signing it in November

If there is an extension because of the Benn bill, such a statement could make it look like the EU are making massive concessions and / or then reneging.
It would probably also worry people in Ireland that they would be dumped

The EU would probably stick to non-committal statements, unless they decide it is no longer in their interest to string it out and hence they refuse an extension

[Oakenbeach]

If the EU don’t find BJ’s deal acceptable (and though I haven’t had a chance to review in detail,
I can see why they probably will), i think the best thing they can do is say: “Thank you for your proposal. We believe it could form the basis for a deal. In order to reach that deal, we need to conduct some detailed analysis on the customs checking arrangements etc. This will take a minimum of 4 weeks, after which we will hopefully have clarified it’s workability and in a position to finalise negotiations with a view to signing some time in November.”....

Then sit back as the Tories tear themselves apart between then”do-or-die Leave on 31 Oct” brigade (even with their deal in the offing), and those who won’t leave with a no-deal if their deal is in touching distance.

A GE ensues and the Leave vote is split down the middle with the Tories and a strengthened Brexit Party, and the resulting Parliament revokes!

[BigChocFrenzy]

Conservatives to look into bullying claims after activist dies

Another young Conservative dies
Are all our parties toxic ?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/02/conservatives-to-look-into-bullying-claims-after-activist-dies

The Conservative party has said it will look into the circumstances of the death of a young activist who alleged she had been the victim of bullying and abuse within the party.
....
Several tweets made allegations of bullying, abuse and sexual assault within the party, with one reading:

“There is a reason we don’t feel safe at conference.”

[BigChocFrenzy]

John Crace reviews BJ's speech 😂

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/02/more-vacuity-than-vision-in-johnsons-after-dinner-chat-to-the-faithfull

Minutes before the Supreme Leader’s speech the cabinet filed into the hall like Stepford Wives and took their seats.

Never before have so many mediocrities received such a long standing ovation.

Moments later Stanley Johnson and Carrie Symonds got an even more enthusiastic reception.

All hail the man whose sperm had created Boris!
All hail the lucky woman who shared Boris’s bed!
The audience was not worthy

[BigChocFrenzy]

Poll / Stats Geeks:

Interesting analysis on how the next GE may depend on 2 biases in Leave / Remain vote distribution:

https://mobile.twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1179382200812343296

Leonardo Carella@leonardocarella

Why a split anti-Brexit vote may not be as good for the Conservatives as we assume.
A thread (1)
......
< stats stuff >
......

Conclusions:
- Leave parties have an in-built advantage due to the ratio of Con-to-BXP share.

But remain parties may have an in-built advantage due to territorial differentiation of their vote
(if you add in SNP and PC,it's even starker, given that these are ultra-territorial).

• The way those two biases interact with each other will decide the results of the next election.

[BigChocFrenzy]

Rafael Behr@rafaelbehr

It is possible, is it not, that Johnson cooked this "Stormont lock" up to Arlene Foster specs,

without even a moment's thought about inter-communal implications of handing so much privilege to the DUP in a model for the future long-term status of NI and its border with ROI.

[tobee]

Actually what I really want to say to that is "utter cunts"

[tobee]

Yes indeed Foldy

[tobee]

I see the US has slapped a tariff of 25% on some EU goods including sweaters made in UK and scotch whiskey.

What will happen after Brexit?

[FoldyRoll]

What a stunning surprise.

[pumkinspicetime]

It is hard to disagree with NS.
I am not convinced that any deal is worth having at any price either.
But although my house is in the UK and investments are in the UK we are not. So it is probably easier for me to say that.

[BigChocFrenzy]

Let's hope so pretzels

After 14 October, there will be only 17 days to stop No Deal

• we don't know if BJ would resign, go to the US or find some other way to dodge asking for an extension, or sabotage it.
  
• Heiko Maas, the German Foreign Minister said the EU would only accept a request from the PM and then only to hold a GE
  (that remark has since been deleted from the Buzzfeed article though, waiting for his new statement which has been delayed)

[BigChocFrenzy]

Nicola Sturgeon@NicolaSturgeon

Hard to see how the UK government Brexit ‘proposals’ fly.
And hard to escape conclusion that they’re designed to fail.^^

For Scotland, the fundamental point remains - these proposals would take us out of the EU, single market and customs union against our will.
That’s unacceptable.

[Icantreachthepretzels]

Funnily enough - 14th October was the date I thought they should call a VoNC back in July ... of course I had hoped that they would have spent between July and mid October sorting out who they were going to put in place to replace him in order to ask for the extension but ... well, maybe they'll surprise us with their competence yet, hey?

[BigChocFrenzy]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/02/boris-johnson-unveils-brexit-plan-for-alternative-to-backstop

Barnier privately gave a scathing analysis of the prime minister’s new plan for the Irish border, describing it as a trap.

The European commission also refused to go into the secretive and intensive “tunnel” talks with the UK’s negotiators
before a crunch summit on 17 October from which the UK had hoped to deliver a breakthrough deal.
....
"The EU would then be trapped with no backstop to preserve the single market after Brexit,”
he warned, according to someone present in the room.

The Irish taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, issued a somber statement after a phone call on Wednesday afternoon with Johnson.
Varadkar warned the prime minister that the legal texts tabled “do not fully meet the agreed objectives of the backstop”.

[BigChocFrenzy]

Nacreous BJ is requesting Parliament be prorogued 9-13 Oct inclusive

At first sight, it looks legally ok, to enable a Queen's Speech
BUT
a QS looks pointless for a govt that can't command a majority
and we don't yet know if the request will be approved

It certainly enables him to waste a few more days and close down Parliamentary work. Again.
Then waste probably another 5 days on the QS speech debate

Lewis Goodall@lewisgoodall

The new prorogation in danger of being overlooked tonight.
Risk govt will lose.

So what is No 10 playing at?

Presumably part of another play at getting an election.

No PM has lost a King/Queen’s Speech since 1924.
If BJ does he will up pressure for conf motion/election motion.


Will once again limit parliamentary scrutiny, give executive some temporary breathing space,

also reorder week beginning 14th October with a day of pomp and five days of speech on the speech.

[Peregrina]

Why on earth wasn't the GFA and border issue accounted for when Article 50 was written?

Because it only affects directly affects two countries. Then no one thought that the UK would want to leave the Single Market, which Maggie Thatcher promoted, and the Customs Union. If May had gone for those two we could have had the Brexit she wanted to deliver.

[mathanxiety]

Manfred Weber has the measure of the latest offering from Johnson.

I can't see it flying.

[prettybird]

Listening to BJ's speech on the news

Pray tell me, why does the EU/Ireland have to "compromise" in order to get a solution for NI that fulfils the requirements of the GFA?

It is the UK that is choosing to leave. If it can't do that in the way that it wants or rather the ERG and DUP want then it should be honest and admit that it will have to withdraw from the GFA - and accept the consequences.

That's not the EU (or Ireland)'s fault.

That's. On. The. UK.