Westministenders: Conference Cult

[RedToothBrush]

Is it over yet?

The Tory Party Conference is in full swing in the Manchester Rain, and is proving to be its usual fun.

Johnson is caught up in all sorts of allegations of abuses of power - the non-declaration of his "friendship" to a busty blonde whom was getting a large tax payer grant, and then there the Odey question after his sister said he was under the control of the Hedge Funders.

And thats before we talk about the 40 hospitals, his provocative language and how many times he can say the word surrender.

There is lots of distancing from Lyton Crosby. And accusations that Johnson has gone 'rogue' only listening to the wisdom of Cummings and Symonds.

The Queen apparently has asked for advice as to under what circumstance she can dismiss a PM.

AND NO ONE IS EVEN TALKING ABOUT A DEAL.

[yolofish]

I can actually understand Labour position: negotiate a deal and then put it to the people vs remain, that seems sensible to me. But it's not a soundbite...

I can also understand LibDem position - that Brexit is a shit idea so let's not go there. Which is a better soundbite (and I agree with it) but won't win them enough votes so they are out of the picture really.

Where I think we are well and truly stuffed is in the true blue areas of the country, where whatever we vote makes no sodding difference whatsoever.

[SwedishEdith]

"Why on earth wasn't the GFA and border issue accounted for when Article 50 was written? "

But GFA/border issue should have been taken into account before art 50 was triggered. Totally irresponsible of May.

[Mistigri]

Corbyn is unfit to be Prime Minister
but less unfit that the current incumbent

I think this too as it happens, but good luck persuading the Tory rebels (whose votes will be needed).

Given that we know that there are potential candidates who could win the confidence of the house, why is Swinson getting the blame and not Corbyn?

Because as well as my earlier comment about the racism aspect (would you expect black MPs to support a candidate they believed - rightly or wrong - to be a white supremacist? Then why do you expect Berger to support JC?) - there is also a big dose of misogyny in the idea that Swinson is the barrier to a GNU.

[ListeningQuietly]

The GFA is NOT AN EU DEAL
its a UK, RoI, UN deal
why should the EU sort the mess when one of the parties decides to shit on it?

[Basilpots]

@chomalungma I here you !!

Drives me insane don’t know/won’t vote/mind your own business don’t get included in these polls. They make a difference. Especially when you consider the majority of these voters are female and the largest party with the undecideds is Labour (based on ‘17 vote) it skews the result in a particular direction.

[BigChocFrenzy]

Bercow The problem lies more with the GFA than the Lisbon treaty, imo, since the GFA specifically dealt with relations between Britain & Ireland

Negotiations for the Lisbon treaty - which contains A50 - started in 2001, only a few years after the GFA was signed

Of course UKIP had little support then, but Major had already fought a furious battle to beat down his "bastards" - the Eurosceptics, before Blair ever became PM

With hindsight the GFA negotiators should have considered it was just possible that the bastards could win some day and that Brexit might happen.

However, the GFA assumed that both countries would remain in the EU and the Single Market forever - it is even stated in the foreward to the GFA that both countries are EU members.

Hence there is no specific clause outlawing borders / checks - and this omission is what Brexiters have seized on

[BigChocFrenzy]

GFA signed in 1998, btw

[CendrillonSings]

but even a week or so of Corbyn as PM is an unacceptable compromise ?

I’m sorry, but this is not accurate. Even if a one-week Corbyn-led GNU does nothing but extend and call an election, Corbyn would remain Prime Minister for the entire election campaign and thus fight it from a position of incumbency.

No sane person would give Corbyn that advantage, and so far the LDs are remaining sane!

[BigChocFrenzy]

frumpety I am cross with a party that risks No Deal, even if it is because they are determined to get Remain

[BigChocFrenzy]

no sane person would leave the corrupt BJ - who shows obvious contempt for the Supreme Court - to fight a GE from a position of incumbency

[BigChocFrenzy]

Î will also be cross with Corbyn & Labour if he won't step aside,

basically with everyone who lets the nation's hair burn while insisting that only their brand of fire extinguisher may be used

[frumpety]

Fair do's BigChoc , going to bed now, as have been up since 3.45am and being tired makes me argumentative. We are on the same side

[Nacreous]

I have been lurking on these threads for a mere month or so (and yet probably through almost 30,000 messages!), and am currently feeling quite dispairing of the way the country is going.

I'm stocked up (thanks to Bellini) and have medication stocks as well. But it's not a position I want to be in.

I've seen a few different reports now this evening saying parliament is going to be prorogued again from next Tuesday, which they are saying is the "shortest possible time". I don't really understand why it couldn't be just prorogued over the weekend, and am frankly fed up with the idea of a queen's speech a few weeks before an election. Do you guys think this will be short enough to stand, after the supreme court ruling?

[QueenOfThorns]

basically with everyone who lets the nation's hair burn while insisting that only their brand of fire extinguisher may be used

I’ve got it! Jason Donovan for PM! (Although I was slightly disappointed to read that he was wearing only pants when he put the fire out, from the headline I thought he’d extinguished a fire in someone’s pants)

[Nacreous]

Realised I should have added a source:

stv.tv/news/politics/1441265-boris-johnson-to-request-prorogation-from-next-week/

[mathanxiety]

RDoo -
I completely agree there was a hangup in older generations, and an inferiority complex that younger generations don't have. Maybe not even an inferiority complex but a habit of mind that saw Ireland as a satellite of the UK - that every aspect of Irish identity and the conduct of foreign affairs and the economy was always in comparison to or reference to the next door neighbour. Maybe more like a magnet - with an attraction/repulsion dynamic.

This was acknowledged as 'the totality of relationships' between the two islands as the groundwork for the GFA was laid back in the 80s, but by that time I think Ireland was presenting that phrase with the voice of a state that was fully confident of equal and separate existence and with a huge consensus among Irish voters that it was completely appropriate to move on into a future in which the UK and Ireland could be partners, might even have common interests, and could exploit the many levels of the relationship for mutual benefit.

I think the confidence has existed in more generations than just that of Varadkar, Coveney, et al.

I would place the beginning of Irish self confidence way back in the late 50s, certainly by the time the ideas of T.K Whitaker began to gain traction. An example of planning and vision that happened in Ireland that wasn't referencing the UK was the commitment to keeping students in school until Leaving Cert level, and the broadening of third level education in the form of the old Regional Techs (now Institutes of Technology). Imo Ireland really began to broaden horizons upon membership of the EEC. The 70s were pivotal years as they saw restraint in Dublin (albeit hotly contested) on the question of NI and the Troubles and what Ireland should do about it all.

Sadly, the positive feelings about the potential of the relationship have been destroyed by Brexit and the hubris that has gone with it in the UK. Well, in England anyway. Ireland has been blatantly accused of being an adversary, while ministers in HM government have uttered gobsmacking threats against Ireland and its people.

I think there are many far older voters keeping track of FG's performance for the purposes of having deep misgivings confirmed. People in their 80s tend to be diligent voters. I also think that younger voters have had their hackles raised by the out and out hostility emanating from across the Irish Sea, and while they may not have Civil War issues in mind, they do not want Varadkar to let Ireland be steam rollered.

[prettybird]

Listening to BJ's speech on the news

Pray tell me, why does the EU/Ireland have to "compromise" in order to get a solution for NI that fulfils the requirements of the GFA?

It is the UK that is choosing to leave. If it can't do that in the way that it wants or rather the ERG and DUP want then it should be honest and admit that it will have to withdraw from the GFA - and accept the consequences.

That's not the EU (or Ireland)'s fault.

That's. On. The. UK.

[mathanxiety]

Manfred Weber has the measure of the latest offering from Johnson.

I can't see it flying.

[Peregrina]

Why on earth wasn't the GFA and border issue accounted for when Article 50 was written?

Because it only affects directly affects two countries. Then no one thought that the UK would want to leave the Single Market, which Maggie Thatcher promoted, and the Customs Union. If May had gone for those two we could have had the Brexit she wanted to deliver.

[BigChocFrenzy]

Nacreous BJ is requesting Parliament be prorogued 9-13 Oct inclusive

At first sight, it looks legally ok, to enable a Queen's Speech
BUT
a QS looks pointless for a govt that can't command a majority
and we don't yet know if the request will be approved

It certainly enables him to waste a few more days and close down Parliamentary work. Again.
Then waste probably another 5 days on the QS speech debate

Lewis Goodall@lewisgoodall

The new prorogation in danger of being overlooked tonight.
Risk govt will lose.

So what is No 10 playing at?

Presumably part of another play at getting an election.

No PM has lost a King/Queen’s Speech since 1924.
If BJ does he will up pressure for conf motion/election motion.


Will once again limit parliamentary scrutiny, give executive some temporary breathing space,

also reorder week beginning 14th October with a day of pomp and five days of speech on the speech.

[BigChocFrenzy]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/02/boris-johnson-unveils-brexit-plan-for-alternative-to-backstop

Barnier privately gave a scathing analysis of the prime minister’s new plan for the Irish border, describing it as a trap.

The European commission also refused to go into the secretive and intensive “tunnel” talks with the UK’s negotiators
before a crunch summit on 17 October from which the UK had hoped to deliver a breakthrough deal.
....
"The EU would then be trapped with no backstop to preserve the single market after Brexit,”
he warned, according to someone present in the room.

The Irish taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, issued a somber statement after a phone call on Wednesday afternoon with Johnson.
Varadkar warned the prime minister that the legal texts tabled “do not fully meet the agreed objectives of the backstop”.

[Icantreachthepretzels]

Funnily enough - 14th October was the date I thought they should call a VoNC back in July ... of course I had hoped that they would have spent between July and mid October sorting out who they were going to put in place to replace him in order to ask for the extension but ... well, maybe they'll surprise us with their competence yet, hey?

[BigChocFrenzy]

Nicola Sturgeon@NicolaSturgeon

Hard to see how the UK government Brexit ‘proposals’ fly.
And hard to escape conclusion that they’re designed to fail.^^

For Scotland, the fundamental point remains - these proposals would take us out of the EU, single market and customs union against our will.
That’s unacceptable.

[BigChocFrenzy]

Let's hope so pretzels

After 14 October, there will be only 17 days to stop No Deal

• we don't know if BJ would resign, go to the US or find some other way to dodge asking for an extension, or sabotage it.
  
• Heiko Maas, the German Foreign Minister said the EU would only accept a request from the PM and then only to hold a GE
  (that remark has since been deleted from the Buzzfeed article though, waiting for his new statement which has been delayed)

[pumkinspicetime]

It is hard to disagree with NS.
I am not convinced that any deal is worth having at any price either.
But although my house is in the UK and investments are in the UK we are not. So it is probably easier for me to say that.