Have we walked into a trap or has the trap shut on the fingers of Johnson?
To early to tell but we have entered an All or Nothing Game.
Johnson seems to have been advised his only way out is a GE - the polls look decent to him. Yet the FTPA means he can not call one without parliaments consent.
He has tried to spook Tory MPs to his will by threatening de-selection. Yet this seemed to have backfired in combination with proroguing and fired up rebels and moderates.
This might still be deliberate though to remove the road block of an internal civil war in the Tory Party. In cleansing moderates though they become the Brexit Party...
... And Spreadsheet Phil has vowed to fight to the last for his party from entryists and non members like Cummings. After first getting support of his local association.
Tonight sees a vote at around 9pm, which is touted as a pseudo no confidence vote.
If this block no deal then tomorrow we face a big day. It looks like there are numbers to do this.
Rebels are looking to seize control of parliamentary time (which might affect prorogation timetable). This is a beefed up version of the previous attempt to do this.
This is around 3pm - 7pm tomorrow.
No 10 has a spad meeting at 7pm, which presumably is about fallout from that vote - and if it goes against government will probably be about trying to force an election.
If he can.
Labour now have leverage though. They can make demands and insist they are in law before agreeing to a GE on Johnson's terms.
Which perhaps makes a GE less likely than the BBC seem to think.
There is talk of trying to force another extension to 31st Jan. I'm not entirely sure how this helps, without a legitimate goal of a deal that goes with it. All it does is push things even more polarised.
And that's my fear. The issue of Brexit isn't going away. No deal, a deal and remaining all leave significant numbers highly dissatisfied. Its hard to see a way out of this without unrest because its been pushed so hard in a polarising way.
If Johnson fails to no deal or to deal on his terms where does this push Farage sympathisers?
We shall see what happens...
... Will the House's independence survive until Nov 5th?