Westminstenders: The House Is On Fire

[RedToothBrush]

Have we walked into a trap or has the trap shut on the fingers of Johnson?

To early to tell but we have entered an All or Nothing Game.

Johnson seems to have been advised his only way out is a GE - the polls look decent to him. Yet the FTPA means he can not call one without parliaments consent.

He has tried to spook Tory MPs to his will by threatening de-selection. Yet this seemed to have backfired in combination with proroguing and fired up rebels and moderates.

This might still be deliberate though to remove the road block of an internal civil war in the Tory Party. In cleansing moderates though they become the Brexit Party...

... And Spreadsheet Phil has vowed to fight to the last for his party from entryists and non members like Cummings. After first getting support of his local association.

Tonight sees a vote at around 9pm, which is touted as a pseudo no confidence vote.

If this block no deal then tomorrow we face a big day. It looks like there are numbers to do this.

Rebels are looking to seize control of parliamentary time (which might affect prorogation timetable). This is a beefed up version of the previous attempt to do this.

This is around 3pm - 7pm tomorrow.

No 10 has a spad meeting at 7pm, which presumably is about fallout from that vote - and if it goes against government will probably be about trying to force an election.

If he can.

Labour now have leverage though. They can make demands and insist they are in law before agreeing to a GE on Johnson's terms.

Which perhaps makes a GE less likely than the BBC seem to think.

There is talk of trying to force another extension to 31st Jan. I'm not entirely sure how this helps, without a legitimate goal of a deal that goes with it. All it does is push things even more polarised.

And that's my fear. The issue of Brexit isn't going away. No deal, a deal and remaining all leave significant numbers highly dissatisfied. Its hard to see a way out of this without unrest because its been pushed so hard in a polarising way.

If Johnson fails to no deal or to deal on his terms where does this push Farage sympathisers?

We shall see what happens...

... Will the House's independence survive until Nov 5th?

Pink

Oh, and nil points for a Labour party that missed the open goal of immediately issuing a press release noting that they wouldn't dream of having an election on a Monday, and the fact it's been mooted by the Tories is a clear sign of their lack of inclusiveness. (I am presuming there are no high ranking Tories that are Jewish ?)

Who knows, Corbyn could have flipped the anti-semitism accusations ?

PMK. Thank you Red.

Will this afternoon in Parliament be interesting to watch, or will nothing exciting be going on until this evening? It sounds as though tomorrow will be when it all kicks off, but I have to work then

Who knows, Corbyn could have flipped the anti-semitism accusations ?
My thought exactly. He could have said, 'We are the ones accused of anti-semitism, but it apparently doesn't matter in the Tory Party.'

I hope my Remainer MP's grandchildren hold him accountable for selling out for the sake of his career.

From what Woman19 said, even Thursday 17 October would be a problem for Orthodox Jews.

Lucy Plint
@lucyplint
·
13m
Here's what we're expecting in the Commons today:
1530: PM statement on G7
1630: Javid on Brexit preps
1730: Williamson on schools funding
1830: Speaker hears rebels' application for SO24 debate
If granted – debate can last 3 hrs or until 2200
So, key vote likely 2130/2200ish

From the end of the last thread but quite a handy quick guide to today.

Aliar De Pfiffel.

@joannaccherry
Boris Johnson secretly agreed to suspend parliament 2 weeks before denying it wd happen. Just 9 days ago No.10 strongly denied any intention to #prorogue parliament - but disclosure to Scottish court shows otherwise #Cherrycase #Brexit

Thank you red happy uniform shopping and protesting cat and oybk

PMK in the hope that I might have time to catch up this evening.

Provided that the Stop No Deal Bill gets through the HoC which I know is not a given , it should get a reasonable run through the HoL, as the Lord Speaker has also been pissed off by BlowJobCum's abuse of parliamentary process

It's in his gift to stop filibustering

Corbyn's whole time in opposition has been a wide open goal...

So it appears that Dominic Cummings cannot be expelled from the Tory Party, having never joined.

Also looking forward to Sonia Khan's tribunal. (Cannot help noticing how many of the recently sacked spads are WoC.)

Cannot help noticing how many of the recently sacked spads are WoC
Aping his orange boss.

From Twitter:

Anyone watching Corbyn's speech from Salford? My toes are curling.

PMK

cat and kitten (!) I’ll be in Parliament Square around 3.30. Maybe I’ll catch you?

Thanks, red 💐

"There is talk of trying to force another extension to 31st Jan."

I thought from Benn's tweet yesterday that was the basis of the Bill tomorrow
My understanding:

The Private Members Bill to prevent no deal
"The European Union (Withdrawal) (No. 6) Bill 2019"

The Bill gives the govt the deadine of 19 October, the day after EUCO mtg,
to either agree a deal with the EU,
or to gain Parliament's consent for No Deal

Otherwise, BJ must send a letter - using a template defined in the bill -
to the EUCO President requesting an A50 extension until 31 January 2020

Does anybody know how Teresa May would vote ? With or against boris ? She is still an MP

moomin, someone on the last thread reported that she would vote with the govt.

I'm not surprised. She's ultimately dutiful. And she'll want to keep her nose clean so she gets her peerage.

BJ’s strategy looking doubtful. Looking at Tory-leaning press, Con association leaders on radio, a lot of concerns are being raised. BJ comes across as a credible “leader” as he knows how to make a speech and is effective in drawing attention to himself. As a result Tory approval ratings are up. BUT this is a far cry from winning an election. If deselected, MPs could run & win as Independent Conservatives, eating in to numbers. Also expect NF to play spoiler & love every minute of it. He is too much of a lone wolf to agree an election pact, and he loves chaos more than Brexit. Calling GE is very dangerous for Tories.

The general opinion seems to be that she would vote with the Government because she wants her peerage

I'm not surprised. She's ultimately dutiful. And she'll want to keep her nose clean so she gets her peerage.

Also if she were to drop out of the charmed circle, her husbands business "acumen" might evaporate.

May won't vote against - although she must be tempted:
he was a disloyal arse when she was PM

It is (faintly) possible she might abstain

Why January 31st? Seems arbitrary but maybe there's logic to that date? I fail to see though what an extra 3 months will achieve that 6 months have failed to do. 6 years might give us a chance