Westminstenders: The House Is On Fire

[RedToothBrush]

Have we walked into a trap or has the trap shut on the fingers of Johnson?

To early to tell but we have entered an All or Nothing Game.

Johnson seems to have been advised his only way out is a GE - the polls look decent to him. Yet the FTPA means he can not call one without parliaments consent.

He has tried to spook Tory MPs to his will by threatening de-selection. Yet this seemed to have backfired in combination with proroguing and fired up rebels and moderates.

This might still be deliberate though to remove the road block of an internal civil war in the Tory Party. In cleansing moderates though they become the Brexit Party...

... And Spreadsheet Phil has vowed to fight to the last for his party from entryists and non members like Cummings. After first getting support of his local association.

Tonight sees a vote at around 9pm, which is touted as a pseudo no confidence vote.

If this block no deal then tomorrow we face a big day. It looks like there are numbers to do this.

Rebels are looking to seize control of parliamentary time (which might affect prorogation timetable). This is a beefed up version of the previous attempt to do this.

This is around 3pm - 7pm tomorrow.

No 10 has a spad meeting at 7pm, which presumably is about fallout from that vote - and if it goes against government will probably be about trying to force an election.

If he can.

Labour now have leverage though. They can make demands and insist they are in law before agreeing to a GE on Johnson's terms.

Which perhaps makes a GE less likely than the BBC seem to think.

There is talk of trying to force another extension to 31st Jan. I'm not entirely sure how this helps, without a legitimate goal of a deal that goes with it. All it does is push things even more polarised.

And that's my fear. The issue of Brexit isn't going away. No deal, a deal and remaining all leave significant numbers highly dissatisfied. Its hard to see a way out of this without unrest because its been pushed so hard in a polarising way.

If Johnson fails to no deal or to deal on his terms where does this push Farage sympathisers?

We shall see what happens...

... Will the House's independence survive until Nov 5th?

Daily Express even more hysterical than usual 😂

So even if a bill to stop no deal passes the Commons it won’t be passed into law in time before the prorogation starts. Scandalous.

Yes I am sad that Rory Stewart is bailing out of politics.

But I reckon politics is the home of (mainly) scoundrels now and he is making it clear he will not be part of the shitstorm anymore. He has seen the writing on the wall now. And acknowledges it.

Such a pity. But there we are.

And I am not a Tory voter either. But I do admire him.

That*s what gives the WA it's best chance
Seeds have been laid for something really bad.

WA is a forlorn memory of a different time BCF, you need to be here to know how fucked up and dangerous british state is now.

It could never pass then; it will never pass now.

Apparently their parliamentary passes have already been disabled

I don't understand that confused

You wouldn't believe what is going down now in this island.

Just like my MIL and her lovely friends said about Germany in 1932.

I just emailed my MP to thank them for being so principled tonight against no deal and got a response straight back. What a bizarre night. I can’t imagine how it must feel being inside Parliament with all this playing out.

Stewart is not stepping down.
twitter.com/rorystewartuk/status/1169012650199736320?s=21

Far too many mixed messages tonight!

But I reckon politics is the home of (mainly) scoundrels now
Cynicism is the refuge of pimped fools.

Sorry, I can't think of a better word than pimped, and it's not meant as an insult.

As isn't 'fools'

@LeaveEUOfficial
Time for a thorough clear-out of the Conservative and Unionist Party after this lot backed Brussels over Britain this evening. There is one Union they pledge allegiance to, and it isn't the United Kingdom! #SackTheRebels

1933 or 1938, anyone?

Our new bosses.

I'm very surprised that so many here don't consider that either a GE, another Ref or a PV on any 'deal' that the HoC are incapable of agreeing to wouldn't result in a more firmer Leave result than before.

Because that is a very real and palpable result of the current situation.

Saw that too Continuety. This is not the EUs fault it’s a Tory Party civil war which was not dealt with and is now dragging the entire country down with it. It will however be spun as good old Boris trying to stick up for the people but being defeated by the Liberal elite.

JRM has been mocked on here but it’s all over Twitter and with a certain section of voters it will play very well indeed and be seen as him flipping the bird at the establishment in a certain JRM style.

Loyal Tory’s leaving the party will be spun as ‘draining the swamp’.

None of this plays well with many of us and we see straight through it but it is not the same for everyone. For some voters this will have an appeal.

Bit previous, hate

I understood the HofL thing to be an attempt at stopping the prorogue of Parliament.

hate I actually agree with you

That's why I think the safest way to avoid No Deal is to forget Revoke and pass the WA

However, although about 500 MPs oppose No Deal,
I doubt if a majority can agree any course of action except to ask for endless extensions, which at some stage the EU will refuse

Hate I totally agree.

Where was Rory Stewart tonight?

If Johnson needs the support of the Lords to rescue him, that rather ruins his 'Parliament vs People' narrative. It's toffs vs MPs.

That's worth repeating in as many places as possible.

Passing the WA ia from the olden days; like rule of law.

I doubt if any GNU, or any hung Parliament after a GE could ever agree on the basis for negotiations, before the govt collapses

If BJ wins the GE, of course he can then No Deal. he would have the mandate and the MPs

I don't want to gamble on the forlorn hope of Corbyn winning a GE, to avoid No Deal

The WA has the great advantage it actually exists

and a lot more MPs now seem to accept there isn't a unicorn on the horizon, whether a Remainer or a Leaver one

woman Are you gambling all on a Corbyn GE win ?

WA is logical therefore it can't happen.

hate I agree with you too. I'm all for the WA, though I think it's probably too late now.

The EU has been supremely patient. Waiting, waiting. But nothing is happening.

Rory Stewart is not resigning as an MP from what I am reading elsewhere. I hope that is true. I am not a Tory voter but he is something else that I actually cannot see in any other party.

Anyway I hope he will go far eventually. No matter what, he would be thousands of miles ahead of those in the the last three/four years who have gone before him. Just my view.

It is the quiet ones you need to watch!

Well if only HoC could be like us lot. Maybe there is the chance they can and a WA (BJ minor amended) will finally pass - within time limits.

I think the WA would pass now too. Ken Clarke and Nick Soames made good speeches about actually leaving with a deal. Anna Soubry would back it if it came with a PV attached.

I honestly think that giving the WA with a PV would get it through. Hell, the WA on its own might go through, but after all of this, they might stick a PV on it.