Westminstenders: The House Is On Fire

[RedToothBrush]

Have we walked into a trap or has the trap shut on the fingers of Johnson?

To early to tell but we have entered an All or Nothing Game.

Johnson seems to have been advised his only way out is a GE - the polls look decent to him. Yet the FTPA means he can not call one without parliaments consent.

He has tried to spook Tory MPs to his will by threatening de-selection. Yet this seemed to have backfired in combination with proroguing and fired up rebels and moderates.

This might still be deliberate though to remove the road block of an internal civil war in the Tory Party. In cleansing moderates though they become the Brexit Party...

... And Spreadsheet Phil has vowed to fight to the last for his party from entryists and non members like Cummings. After first getting support of his local association.

Tonight sees a vote at around 9pm, which is touted as a pseudo no confidence vote.

If this block no deal then tomorrow we face a big day. It looks like there are numbers to do this.

Rebels are looking to seize control of parliamentary time (which might affect prorogation timetable). This is a beefed up version of the previous attempt to do this.

This is around 3pm - 7pm tomorrow.

No 10 has a spad meeting at 7pm, which presumably is about fallout from that vote - and if it goes against government will probably be about trying to force an election.

If he can.

Labour now have leverage though. They can make demands and insist they are in law before agreeing to a GE on Johnson's terms.

Which perhaps makes a GE less likely than the BBC seem to think.

There is talk of trying to force another extension to 31st Jan. I'm not entirely sure how this helps, without a legitimate goal of a deal that goes with it. All it does is push things even more polarised.

And that's my fear. The issue of Brexit isn't going away. No deal, a deal and remaining all leave significant numbers highly dissatisfied. Its hard to see a way out of this without unrest because its been pushed so hard in a polarising way.

If Johnson fails to no deal or to deal on his terms where does this push Farage sympathisers?

We shall see what happens...

... Will the House's independence survive until Nov 5th?

Has anyone clarified if tomorrow's bill can actually force Johnson to request an extension? The Bill can be passed, but they are still stymied if he refuses to request.

So the Queen has to do as she is damn well told, but Boris does as he pleases ?

God today's a total popcorn fest. How the fuck am I supposed to get any work done?

I expected some unravelling but it's all coming apart faster than I dared hope.

BBC seems to have woken up. (This is the first look I've given them today) - almost wall to wall Brexit stories. Including some of the more niche ones.

If I was running an AI (or "AI" as I call it) learning machine over this, it would have perked up and said somethings up ....

Thank you very much, BigChoc.
💐💐

cat Actually in thinking about it, I’ll probably have left the protest before you get there. Shame.

Thank you, Grinchly.

PMK. Following this all agog at the complexity, back-stabbing, cloak and dagger stuff going on. So many tricks and subterfuges (and court cases), it's difficult for the layman to have a clue what's going on. Hence double thanks to RTB and all of you for keeping us informed. I don't know how you have the tenacity to plough through the mendacious shit of the MSM at the moment.

Oh I am sorry for being off in asking a question. Your superiority really gets on my tits at times.

The Hammond interview was in the R4 Today programme. Interestingly, Sky News showed a far longer excerpt than the BBC , which demonstrated much more clearly his "cold fury". Spreadsheet Phil even interrupted the interviewer (or rather, didn't let him interrupt his answer ) in order to fully convey his strength of feeling

How looks that way

This could go on indefinitely ?

Or Johnson could just refuse to ask ?? Then what ??

howabout I didn't miss that. I'm just not so paranoid about it as you are

Benn's tweet said if 31 October is refused, then the PM should accept whatever date the EU propose.

If it is say 9-12 months, to give time to to negotiate a new PD and then have a PV on it, then that is just Corbyn's policy.
So why would you object ?
(If you really are a Labour supporter ?)
The Tories alternative plan is just to crash the economy and let their chums here and the USA loot it

Anyway, afaik, the bill doesn't say accept immediately
So, the HoC still has control and could say request BJ to bring back the original WA but with the Ni-only backstop

The WA and the enabling WAIB could be passed by 31 October if BJ and the HoC agree
Then no extension needed

PMK with a naice cup of and some .

I'm completely lost...

Why would the EU want to offer another extension ?

If the WA cannot go through between now and the end of October it never will. Parliament and the country are too divided.

A GE will not solve anything because the country is too divided.

BJ will not revoke, nor would JC if he was caretaker in time.

What is in it for the EU to appease the UK even further?

No worry, extensions won't go on forever
(trade negotiations after No Deal however, could take decades, with the EU and all the non-EU trading partners)

Macron - and some other heads of govt now - may be too exasperated even to give the Uk this one extension

That is why they might actually demand a PV, just to finally be rid of Brexit, one way or the other.

Left to the UK, this dithering would roll on forever and ever - it's what happens when irresponsible politicans split a country in two

It's not that the EU want to offer and extension

More that they don't want to be blamed for throwing out the UK
After 6 months No Deal, the foreign media could start picking up horror stories of deprivation within the UK
The EU wants to have the blame firmly on the Uk govt

That is why they might actually demand a PV, just to finally be rid of Brexit, one way or the other.
But it would not work
because you only get the right answer if you ask the right question (42)
and the chances of the UK electorate understanding the right question and actually voting on that issue are diddly squat

Left to the UK, this dithering would roll on forever and ever - it's what happens when irresponsible politicans split a country in two

Although a plus might be it neutralises politicians ? Didn't some countries effectively end up being run - quite efficiently - for decades because the civil service just got on with it while nothing new could be decided ?

Can you imagine that .... 5 - maybe 10 - years with no new policies. No initiatives.

Going back to 2000, when DS started primary school, the headmaster had an open evening for parents, and began by bringing out - on a sack trolley - the previous years addendums to the ongoing policies that he was to work to.

Fans of defunct UK megacorps, military hardware, and massively fucked up projects of the 70s and 80s might know that GEC-Marconi were getting 10,000 change requests a year for Nimrod from the RAF.

Pm statement in House now. Referencing ww2

Sky News Breaking @skynewsbreak
The office of Conservative MP Alistair Burt has confirmed he will not stand at the next general election

His name is not amongst the rebels.

BlowJob rightly getting jeered for referencing the UK's "continued role in upholding democracy"

Alex Wickham@alexwickham
NEW: No10 orders Tory MPs to brand the rebel legislation "Corbyn's Surrender Bill"

— MPs told to say the Bill is a "shameful document"
— could lead to the "permanent cancellation of Brexit"
— accuses Corbyn and rebels of acting "in Brussels’ interest, not the British interest"

I thought that this was supposed to be a statement on G7?

Rory Stewart @RoryStewartUK
I will be voting today against a no-deal Brexit
with vid

More that they don't want to be blamed for throwing out the UK After 6 months No Deal, the foreign media could start picking up horror tories of deprivation within the UK The EU wants to have the blame firmly on the Uk govt

I think it's already there. Apart from the US (99% of whose citizens really don't know about Brexit, and of the remaining 1%, 99% don't give a shit) most foreign media hasn't really been toeing the UK MSM line of "Nasty EU, plucky UK".

And to be honest, it might raise the EUs standing around the world, to let the UK no deal itself. People like Putin respect power, strength and decisiveness. It would be no less than the UK sorely deserves.

Also, a UK managing to crash itself into a no-deal it had no need to will send a clear message to the rest of the world that they're hardly going to need their First Eleven negotiating team on the case.