Westminstenders: The House Is On Fire

[RedToothBrush]

Have we walked into a trap or has the trap shut on the fingers of Johnson?

To early to tell but we have entered an All or Nothing Game.

Johnson seems to have been advised his only way out is a GE - the polls look decent to him. Yet the FTPA means he can not call one without parliaments consent.

He has tried to spook Tory MPs to his will by threatening de-selection. Yet this seemed to have backfired in combination with proroguing and fired up rebels and moderates.

This might still be deliberate though to remove the road block of an internal civil war in the Tory Party. In cleansing moderates though they become the Brexit Party...

... And Spreadsheet Phil has vowed to fight to the last for his party from entryists and non members like Cummings. After first getting support of his local association.

Tonight sees a vote at around 9pm, which is touted as a pseudo no confidence vote.

If this block no deal then tomorrow we face a big day. It looks like there are numbers to do this.

Rebels are looking to seize control of parliamentary time (which might affect prorogation timetable). This is a beefed up version of the previous attempt to do this.

This is around 3pm - 7pm tomorrow.

No 10 has a spad meeting at 7pm, which presumably is about fallout from that vote - and if it goes against government will probably be about trying to force an election.

If he can.

Labour now have leverage though. They can make demands and insist they are in law before agreeing to a GE on Johnson's terms.

Which perhaps makes a GE less likely than the BBC seem to think.

There is talk of trying to force another extension to 31st Jan. I'm not entirely sure how this helps, without a legitimate goal of a deal that goes with it. All it does is push things even more polarised.

And that's my fear. The issue of Brexit isn't going away. No deal, a deal and remaining all leave significant numbers highly dissatisfied. Its hard to see a way out of this without unrest because its been pushed so hard in a polarising way.

If Johnson fails to no deal or to deal on his terms where does this push Farage sympathisers?

We shall see what happens...

... Will the House's independence survive until Nov 5th?

Yep, I said last thread she might want the prestige of the traditional peerage offered to an ex-PM

However, so far Cameron hasn't had the cheek to ask for / accept one - I wonder if May even offered one to him
(through clenched teeth at the mess he left her)

Why January 31st? Seems arbitrary but maybe there's logic to that date? I fail to see though what an extra 3 months will achieve that 6 months have failed to do.

The quanta seems to be 3 months ... 2 years for A50, 3 months first extension, 6 this one ...

But you make a very good point. Why would the EU agree to an extension after this one has been pissed away, just to be here in December ? (which means to note that Xmas and New Year will shave at least 10 days off that extension). Unless the 3 months is used for an election ?

Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
Really interesting detail that No 10 declined to give a sworn statement to court .....govt provided some emails and documents to court late last night instead

Sources suggesting there has been a lot of consternation about how this has been handled among government lawyers, will be interesting to see what else comes out in court this afternoon

Am told no No 10 staffers were asked to give statement to court - follow @bbclornag for more on what comes out this afternoon - govt lawyers up

Sam Coates Sky @samcoatessky
No10 fail to provide sworn statement over reason for proroguing Pt

I'm told big arguments inside government about this. Crisis discussions etc

Have Sir Mark Sedwill, Nikki Da Costa, Dom Cummings, released all electronic communications under legal disclosure procedures?

I asked No10 at morning lobby whether Sir Mark Sedwill has disclosed everything relevant to the case. They said proper procedures would have been followed. But were going to get to the bottom of it for afternoon briefing

Chris Cook @xtophercook
cough

"Why January 31st ?"

Probably just that it would be a 3 month extension !

Well, we wasted a short extension, then a 6 months one ......

I suspect the EU might say "Off to feck with ye" in several languages,
unless Corbyn, another Labour MP or a Rebel Alliance bod is PM
not if it's more rounds with BJ

Chris Cook @xtophercook
But the DFE's own officials thought this was absolute nonsense - as will any actual lawyers

Sam Coates Sky @samcoatessky
Latest on lack of sworn No10 statement on prorogation case

Tory sources say

• Gvt handed over all the documents that lawyers / Sir Mark Sedwill asked for
• court never asked for anything else
• no-one has refused anything
• cabinet office officials feeding "crap" to media 💩

more on prorogation statement

Tory source:

• Nikki Da Costa wasn't asked to write anything
• No10 officials "bemused" saying no-one i asked to give sworn statements to JRs

Personal Email account for gov business

Didn't Clinton get into trouble over that, conveniently just before the voting in the US presidential election ?
They must all read the same dodgy weasels manual

It's a no-no in any country
and it certainly doesn't keep the EMails private, once they have been discovered

This looks like they were supposed to disclose things, but circumvented that by not doing it on official emails then it became apparent that this is not very legally watertight and that 'the court didn't ask for anything else' is going to last about five minutes under scrutiny. And the media have found all this shit out.

Magnificent.

So when's the court order demanding disclosure be properly complied with not treating the court with this level of contempt?

" court never asked for anything else"

If so, court was not doing its job
so I hope the rebel lawyers are

Also you can bet the no 10 will try to throw Mark Sedwill under the bus if the cabinet office haven't done this as they should.

Hester Can you send me a DM?

I don't think I can DM on the app but if I have a DM it appears as an email & then I can use that to go through to non-app Mumsnet to DM people.

😁

Maybe not the time - or maybe the perfect time but questioning the length of any extension really does feel a bit off, given there is nothing in play at the moment that suggests the EU would agree to one.

Unless I've missed something (as always, quite happy to be corrected) the current state of play would be the EU agreeing to an extension for:

1. a GE
2. a PV

If it was for a PV, then the extension would have to be at least 6 - maybe 9 months while the groundwork is laid ?

But without those two pressing reasons, there's no possible reason for the EU to agree an extension - in fact, quite the reverse.

Again, have I missed something ?

This is all about the same level of sophistication as trying to rig elections for 6th form prefects

Is this what they all learn at Eton ?
If so, they haven't progressed much since

I have to hope that the EU repeat Donald Tusk's words and block any further extensions.
The UK has to make up its own mind by the end of next month.

This looks like they were supposed to disclose things, but circumvented that by not doing it on official emails then it became apparent that this is not very legally watertight and that 'the court didn't ask for anything else' is going to last about five minutes under scrutiny.

Even if they are found in contempt and it all unravels, it will have served the Government's purpose of obfuscating and delaying

Pmk. Attempted to make a joke about Boris's election but it got very unpleasant very quickly

Red, this is an annoying question, but from the last thread –what Hammond interview was Tim Shipman referring to? (the 'cold fury' comment). Thank you!

@thecatfromjapan or anyone else struggling to PM / DM:

This should hopefully work:

https://www.mumsnet.com/pm?call=Inbox&first_page=1

And when his own MPs can't trust him, why on earth should the EU trust him to honour anything at all ?

Lewis Goodall@lewis_goodall

It is quite the state of affairs when MPs (including those in his own party) don't trust the Prime Minister to honour an election date he promises to set.

This whole faux "blur" between private and public (which is nothing new, by the way. Coke and Dicey would have recognised the tactic) is also why one D. Trump feels he should be immune on Twitter. And he's getting very upset that successive courts don't agree. Unlike the UK, there are some things the US is pretty hot on, and people trying to disguise state actions as private actions are a well-worn trick.

You are all missing something. 31 January is NOT the end goal extension date. The proposed wording is seek an extension to 31 January BUT if the EU refuses this date it then obliges the UK PM to take whatever date and terms the EU offer instead back for Parliamentary approval. Since Parliament have already taken No Deal off the table they are then effectively obliged to endorse EU's timetable. Therefore the EU get to select Never ending extension or set conditions like PV with Remain on ballot.

Will be interesting to see how many Labour MPs rebel because this goes way beyond 2nd Ref they have so far refused to endorse. The timetable for a PV would likely be in excess of 6 months and so difficult to see how a GE could be staved off for all that time. Perhaps Boris wants to force Labour to actually enact the Rebel Motion and then fight an election on their stated position of "renegotiate and then campaign against their renegotiation for Remain" - I am not convinced that is a vote winner.

Has anyone clarified if tomorrow's bill can actually force Johnson to request an extension?
The Bill can be passed, but they are still stymied if he refuses to request.
Apols if I have missed something.
Good to see things unravelling nicely in the court case.

nikita thé Hammond interview was on Today, R4.
It was cold fury alright. He was brilliant.

...the motherpharquar of all parliaments is back, and there is a paltry turnout on the govt benches. This may be a Brexit thing, or a South Western rail thing.

Theresa May sat on the back benches next to Dirty Damien Gree, who is free at last to share his porn stash with her.

David Allen Green@davidallengreen
Ok

Three possible explanations

1. Jucy - prior tactical decision not to provide one, as not be helpful

1. Jucier - could not be finalised/agreed in time, as things could not be helpfully presented

1. Juiciest- Minister could not or would not sign it, because of legal peril

As variation to (2), either relevant new documents were found or key documents not made available in time, so witness statement could not be finalised

I suspect (2): something happened/emerged at late stage and there was a "oh f###" moment

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