Westminstenders: It's a trap!

[RedToothBrush]

The more I think about it, the more I believe that the war gaming that Cummings has undertaken involved deliberately provoking the split in the Conservatives, uniting the Opposition and triggering a GE in October - before B-Day.

If you are wise then I think Peregina (and BCF) have it spot on.

The optics are all for creating a positive circumstance for Johnson and a GE. Everything is about a GE. There is nothing about either no deal or a deal coming from government presently. Its always stank of being a trap but it not being quite clear what they were up to.

I think it's starting to become clearer.

Timing is everything and perception is essential and that's always been obvious. Johnson has to be seen as tough and hard line.

May's problems all stemmed from the party civil war and lack of majority. Realistically to survive Johnson has to solve this somehow. A GE gives him the opportunity to get rid of troublemakers and purify the party but he can only do so with Brexit Party supporters. Or a coalition with the Brexit Party as a last resort.

His strategy all along has been about demonising and laying the blame. And it's quite clear there is deliberate incitement going on.

Johnson HAS to be challenged for it to work though. Either by Labour going for a GE or by a VoNC sooner rather than later so a GE can fall mid Oct.

If this doesn't happen Johnson runs into problems and has to seriously consider abusing to powers of the executive to do anything. I suspect he'd try this and we'd have a constitutional crisis but this is plan B rather than plan A.

Johnson wants to be in control of the timetable without being seen to do it himself.

That points to an earlier election he has denied he wants. And rumours are now circling for 14th October election that Cummings wants to call next week - the minor detail here being the mechanics a of the FTPA. Johnson can't just call a GE without repealing the act (needs a majority to do so which he doesn't have), complying with the act (2/3rds of the House vote for it which requires Labour support) or a VoNC and he then calls a GE.

A 1st Nov GE requires him to drive us over the cliff, which is currently technically unlawful and provokes no deal the government isn't prepared for. Its extremely high risk as a strategy. It might well still be in play, but its a last resort I suspect.

A VoNC and the temptation to form an alternative government is high risk strategy as despite saying Johnson would refuse to resign, he could well just be saying this to provoke the strategy.

Remember: Propaganda is always about playing to emotional behaviour to illicit the 'right' behaviour.

There is this mentally amongst some remain quarters that only leavers are 'stupid enough' to fall for this. And there is this idea that everything that's going on now is to whip up leave feeling.

Is that true? Who is taking to the streets?

I do suspect that enough hard-line Remainers will be so angry that they act recklessly with emotions rather than rational and potentially fall for it. That's the trick. Get people emotional and you can control their behaviour. That's what Cummings did for the referendum. Except he manipulated Leave voters. He's trying to do the reverse with Remain voters now. So the question is to what ends and it does seem to come back to what Peregina says above. And whether Remainers can see it and respond to it, or become so caught up with the outrage.

Of course if the public are wound up enough and their representatives on the remain side don't play ball, then they become disillusioned and this also has an effect on voter moral (less likely to turnout). So it could be win win strategy anyway, unless this danger isn't spotted and the opposition fail to call it out and defuse it. All their messages so far are not doing so. Win Win to Cummings.

I think there are definitely two plans in action here. A preferred one and a less preferred one. Strikingly for all this game theory talk, it does look like it's about Johnson and Cummings retaining control of the narrative and the timings for a GE. Brexit itself is something of an irrelevance to this. It's not what they are trying to achieve though. Johnsons priority is to stay in power, not manage Brexit responsibly though and that's the key to understanding it all, whereas Dealers and Remainers priority is simply about preventing no deal. Johnson ultimately doesn't care about this, if he can stay PM.

Pmk

Lewis Goodall @lewis_goodall
EXCL: Leaked govt docs seen by @skynews show vehicles could face a 2 day delay at Dover.

-That’s a pile up of up to 8,000 vehicles.

-Even in best case scenario lorries will be waiting for 2-3 hours, with 50% waiting for at least 8.

New analysis drawn up in last fortnight.

This would be on day 1 of a no deal. It is impossible for the govt to dismiss this Department for Transport analysis as outdated or as being representative of the May regime- as it was drawn up only two weeks ago. It is based on current government policy and preparation levels.

It also suggests that many freight companies might simply abandon attempts to send goods to Britain given extensive processing times.

Bear in mind right now vehicles from EU usually face only a 2 minute delay at Dover. Even with best case scenario of waits of 2-3 hours, this would create huge problems.

The government refused to comment tonight. @Keir_Starmer told me @grantshapps should come to Parliament to explain the documents immediately.

This is in the week where Michael Gove is planning a public information campaign to prepare for a no deal. But as these docs show, even with complete trader preparation, delays will intensify considerably.

Moreover as figures in the haulage industry have told me it is now too late to make any significant changes to improve the situation. They say they’ve been warning ministers about the fact there’s little to be done to change the situ under no deal for some time but to no avail.

Those same figures confirm that these delays would inevitably lead to food and medical shortages.

news.sky.com/story/brexit-crisis-govt-analysis-suggests-chaos-at-dover-in-event-of-no-deal-departure-11800263

Do consider how 'Project Fear' could be used AGAINST Remainers this week.

If Cummings wants to stoke up panic and anger amongst remainers to provoke an early election, there'd be loads of leaks of how bad Operation Yellowhammer is going to be and how awful No Deal is and how the government isn't prepared.

All of this might well be true. But it's about deliberately panicking people to get a certain behaviour out of it.

And the timing here is crucial. For it to work, you want loads of it last week and early this week.

I ask you, who leaked the latest yellow hammer stuff? It was dated post May but blamed on Hammond and co. To which Hammond went as far as issuing the letter he did.

If I had to put money on it, this is all being leaked not by the Gaukeward Squad, but by the Johnson Election Campaign.

Remember also, Cummings is only contracted until 31st October. That's it.

No master strategy beyond that.

It's all about a GE not Brexit.

If we get to mid October without Johnson going, I suspect there might be different noises starting to come out of government.

They might well be deal or no deal like, trying to force a deal by getting the opposition to vote for it rather than the Tories... Again this is with a GE in mind too.

It's slight of hand.

Get the opposition to behave a certain way in order to maintain Johnson's image.

It might still come to accidental no deal, if that ultimately suits Johnson especially since the hard right like the idea and want it.

Johnson is out for Johnson though.

Thanks, red 💐

Yep, I've been posting that I think Cummings himself is leaking to

1. terrify Remainers into doing something he wants - like stumbling into giving him a GE shose date BJ he will choose

and also
2) to exaggerate predictions of the first few weeks of No Deal, so the actual effects will seem minor and he can re-use the Project Fear line again

I'm a lurker on these threads and live on the other side of the world, so this is not affecting me directly (I'm British but have no vote), but the psychology at play is fascinating and terrifying in equal measures...

However, after reports from normally reliable sources like the RHA and the food industry about shortages,
I'm also wondering if the govt decided not to prioritise essential meds , food etc sufficiently

• The plan should have been to heavily restrict exports and any non-essential imports,

but the govt may have decided to (try to) keep JIT imports flowing for industry, to avoid manufacturing flight

and maybe even to keep some UK exports flowing too, to avoid an early balance of payments crisis.

Not possible to do all that
It would cause logjams, hence shortages.

Also, they may have been unable to book sufficient civilian freight capacity for their plans,
possibly because Failing Grayling was sacked 18 months too late.

If anyone still awake I'll repeat my question from end of last thread.

I looked at www.parliament.uk calendar for Tuesday but can't tell which vote(s) to look out for, please?

Completely agree this is all about power and not Brexit. Also agree Cummings is now controlling the info by re-releasing Yellowhammer and the Times pieces on Meds, etc. These information campaigns aren't meant to work on Leavers - they don't.

Cummings isn't particularly thinking long term for himself or his family, is he? I mean in 20 years time when we are going through the fallout of the umpteenth prorogation his son will still be alive knowing his dad began all of this. Who wants that for their offspring? I'd be livid if I was part of his family. Such a male ego-centric thing to do.

I've begun posting more about the environment on my fb. I have fatigue over the details right now and have sensed manipulation since BoZo got in, so I am hopeful a lot of people who will always vote on the centrist/left feel the same. Also Cummings hasn't considered many parents are off for school holidays and won't be interested in doing much until their DC are safely back at school (if protests are still going on by the end of the week).

I do think Rory/Hammond et al need to be canny here or they will blow their own chances of re-commandeering the Tories and lead us into an early GE. I don't trust Labour not to go for it as an instinct; Corbyn has a touch of messiah complex IMO.

Oh and I had another electoral role letter today (used to be a tory stronghold) which I also had just after the last local election...there's certainly something afoot.

pmk

Interesting times.

Nobody is going to do anything unless opinion polls indicate there is a chance of a GE win.

Hence Corbyn's ditching of the demand he become caretaker PM. He is looking at polls.

Can't sleep. Checking in and catching up.

I think you’re absolutely right, every leak is being tightly controlled. With the recent threat of deselection it also sounds like gearing up for an election where every seat will count and those with revel mps seem possibly weakest.

What does it mean when they say MPs will lose the whip if they vote against the government?

I’ve understood in this case that they won’t be able to sit with the conservatives in parliament, have to sit as independents, and they won’t be able to stand for the Tory party in an upcoming election... the conservatives would stand another candidate against them therefore they also risk losing their seat.

Doesn’t seem to matter that BJ himself voted against the government.

Thanks for the new thread, Red

Cummings apparently follows the teachings of Sun Tzu (The Art of War) the ancient Chinese philosopher of war, who said “Supreme importance in war is to attack the enemy’s strategy.” Any of this sound familiar?

"All warfare is based on deception.
Hold out baits to entice the enemy. Feign disorder, and crush him.
Attack him where he is unprepared, appear where you are not expected."

Prorogation is a lightning move designed to create outrage, confusion and deliberately divide the Country.

"One who is skillful at keeping the enemy on the move maintains deceitful appearances, according to which the enemy will act. He sacrifices something, that the enemy may snatch at it."

classics.mit.edu/Tzu/artwar.html

This from someone I know, I think he has it bang on:

"When the Government’s election campaign gets into full swing it will be billed by him as a ‘YOU against THEM’ election, a phony ‘Parliament versus the people’ struggle; it will be a nasty nation-splitting fight between type 1 (gut led) and type 2 (brain led) thinkers; a total war on intellect and reason; pulling on all the Alf Garnet heart strings, playing on fears and prejudices and portraying as enemies and ‘collaborators’ people who until recently who were looked on benignly as just ordinary politicians and public figures doing their jobs as best they could."

Would it be possible in a Remain constituency for some prominent Tory who ended up deselected to run as an independent of some shade, and deliberately split the Tory vote or prevent a Brexiteer candidate winning? Would this be political suicide for them? If it resulted in the former Tory winning, would all be ultimately forgiven?

What leading Remainers have Remain constituencies and solid majorities last time around?

PMK.

Interesting week coming up then (understatement). Shame I'm in work. I could do with another shoulder op to keep me off! (Joking. A long holiday would do!)

Until we actually see what the opposition parties are going to do tomorrow, we can't really predict beyond that point. So I think I'll sit back and wait and then assess rather than try to predict and potentially get up in arms about something which isn't happening anyway!

I do think this threat of whip removal will just lead to shrugs from most rebels though. To even consider what they're doing shows they're fucked off with their party, so what does it really matter, given that they appear to be principled, which is why they're rebelling to start with?

Tobee, there won't be anything listed tomorrow yet. I imagine they'll be a bid put to Bercow to take over control on Weds and Thurs, then we'll see action.

There'll be a bid. I'm not awake yet. 🙈😂

I had a bad night worrying g about something completely unrelated to Brexit- I always tell my family that if something is bugging you in the early hours you won't resolve it so just breathe and count your breaths. Tell anything troublesome that you will look at it another time.
Load of bollocks. I would have been better off hanging out with you lot.
Thanks Red. I hope you got some sleep.

"When the Government’s election campaign gets into full swing it will be billed by him as a ‘YOU against THEM’ election, a phony ‘Parliament versus the people’ struggle; it will be a nasty nation-splitting fight between type 1 (gut led) and type 2 (brain led) thinkers; a total war on intellect and reason; pulling on all the Alf Garnet heart strings, playing on fears and prejudices and portraying as enemies and ‘collaborators’ people who until recently who were looked on benignly as just ordinary politicians and public figures doing their jobs as best they could."

You mean it's a bog standard GE?

All we are seeing is increasing americanisation of the process. But that's been going on for the last 30 years. No one has tried to look at the effect of the tactics used because they've all taken advantage of them, with varying degrees of success.

Sun Tsu is par for the course. I know people use it in online gaming - the psychological stuff - to wind people up when not even physically playing.

I think my big take on this though is that perhaps no deal isnt quite as likely as I thought it might be.

If Johnson is going for plan a 'the cleansing GE' then he can do it and follow disaster capitalism to the letter.

If that fails and we head into plan B 'the constitutional crisis' then it depends on whether he can provoke an early GE. If he can and his constitutional wrecking works we get no deal. If he cant and he fails with the wrecking then it gets more interesting.

If he can't get that GE we head into plan C 'deal or no deal'. This involves the opposition somehow being forced agreeing to an 11th hour deal (which involves the backstop etc etc) but it framed as if they've proposed it, and forced it upon Johnson etc etc.

This is possible.

Johnson wants to appear immovable and to force others to blink and make moves. Despite the temption, I have to say being immovable against Johnson is probably the way forward counter intuitively. That means soft Tories appearing cowardly at this point. And Corbyn and co doing fuck all but concentrate on optics themselves. They need to call this out rather than be pressured by their own supporters (Labour Party conference is going to be fun!)

This goes against everything I've said under May. But the game is different now.

It's now about holding nerve and watching the train come towards you.

My worry is that the opposition have failed to see the game has changed and will carry on as before, thinking they are starting to win only to have 'victory' snatched from them by the miscalculation.

My bet is that Johnson has to start making moves in mid Oct if things arent falling the way he'd ideally like.

Thanks Red. I agree with that analysis. I have one of those big birthdays looming and realised last week that I could well be finding there’s an election on that date.

I agree, Red.