The more I think about it, the more I believe that the war gaming that Cummings has undertaken involved deliberately provoking the split in the Conservatives, uniting the Opposition and triggering a GE in October - before B-Day.
If you are wise then I think Peregina (and BCF) have it spot on.
The optics are all for creating a positive circumstance for Johnson and a GE. Everything is about a GE. There is nothing about either no deal or a deal coming from government presently. Its always stank of being a trap but it not being quite clear what they were up to.
I think it's starting to become clearer.
Timing is everything and perception is essential and that's always been obvious. Johnson has to be seen as tough and hard line.
May's problems all stemmed from the party civil war and lack of majority. Realistically to survive Johnson has to solve this somehow. A GE gives him the opportunity to get rid of troublemakers and purify the party but he can only do so with Brexit Party supporters. Or a coalition with the Brexit Party as a last resort.
His strategy all along has been about demonising and laying the blame. And it's quite clear there is deliberate incitement going on.
Johnson HAS to be challenged for it to work though. Either by Labour going for a GE or by a VoNC sooner rather than later so a GE can fall mid Oct.
If this doesn't happen Johnson runs into problems and has to seriously consider abusing to powers of the executive to do anything. I suspect he'd try this and we'd have a constitutional crisis but this is plan B rather than plan A.
Johnson wants to be in control of the timetable without being seen to do it himself.
That points to an earlier election he has denied he wants. And rumours are now circling for 14th October election that Cummings wants to call next week - the minor detail here being the mechanics a of the FTPA. Johnson can't just call a GE without repealing the act (needs a majority to do so which he doesn't have), complying with the act (2/3rds of the House vote for it which requires Labour support) or a VoNC and he then calls a GE.
A 1st Nov GE requires him to drive us over the cliff, which is currently technically unlawful and provokes no deal the government isn't prepared for. Its extremely high risk as a strategy. It might well still be in play, but its a last resort I suspect.
A VoNC and the temptation to form an alternative government is high risk strategy as despite saying Johnson would refuse to resign, he could well just be saying this to provoke the strategy.
Remember: Propaganda is always about playing to emotional behaviour to illicit the 'right' behaviour.
There is this mentally amongst some remain quarters that only leavers are 'stupid enough' to fall for this. And there is this idea that everything that's going on now is to whip up leave feeling.
Is that true? Who is taking to the streets?
I do suspect that enough hard-line Remainers will be so angry that they act recklessly with emotions rather than rational and potentially fall for it. That's the trick. Get people emotional and you can control their behaviour. That's what Cummings did for the referendum. Except he manipulated Leave voters. He's trying to do the reverse with Remain voters now. So the question is to what ends and it does seem to come back to what Peregina says above. And whether Remainers can see it and respond to it, or become so caught up with the outrage.
Of course if the public are wound up enough and their representatives on the remain side don't play ball, then they become disillusioned and this also has an effect on voter moral (less likely to turnout). So it could be win win strategy anyway, unless this danger isn't spotted and the opposition fail to call it out and defuse it. All their messages so far are not doing so. Win Win to Cummings.
I think there are definitely two plans in action here. A preferred one and a less preferred one. Strikingly for all this game theory talk, it does look like it's about Johnson and Cummings retaining control of the narrative and the timings for a GE. Brexit itself is something of an irrelevance to this. It's not what they are trying to achieve though. Johnsons priority is to stay in power, not manage Brexit responsibly though and that's the key to understanding it all, whereas Dealers and Remainers priority is simply about preventing no deal. Johnson ultimately doesn't care about this, if he can stay PM.