Do any of the people who laughed and rolled their eyes at those of us stockpiling six months ago care to comment?

[StealthPolarBear]

I seem to remember some rather scathing comments. I wonder how many are quietly buying a few extra bits each week and smugly congratulating themselves on being prepared. Forgetting the scorn and contempt.

Manontry I sense this branch of this discussion is going to descend into semantics.

But membership of a trading organisation is not the same as being a shop.

The leavers I know didn't take any notice of any campaigns they wanted out and still do. Equally when asked by one staunch remainer they have told her if there was another referendum they would vote remain just to shut her up.

Both dp and I voted Remain but I don't think we would vote Remain again and we are not alone.

I only know one couple who would still vote Remain.

Well, of course a shop is a dismissive way of putting it. But it is basically a glorified shop. Its not actual continental landmass. We are actually still going to be part of Europe.

I trade with the EU daily.

Manontry That's because you're currently a member of a trading organisation that facilitates seamless buying and selling of goods.

Oliver Anecdata do not 'facts' make. I only know of one Leaver who still would. The others all pretty much to a person, mutter 'Well, this isn't what I voted for; I'd prefer to Remain til all this is sorted out'. Because they are relatively intelligent and take notice of facts.

We're watching in horrified fascination the implosion of our parliament because Remainers, even those who would accept the BINO of the WA- now outnumber Leavers; those who would accept the BINO of the WA, and the swivel eyed of No Dealing.

That's because you're currently a member of a trading organisation that facilitates seamless buying and selling of goods we actually dont sell much to the EU. They often win uk based contracts due to the huge volumes they can make so saving money. We might be able to supply products to our own country after Brexit.

So we don't sell a lot to the EU...

from the House of Commons Library not plucked out of thin air:

" -The EU, taken as a whole is the UK’s largest trading partner. In 2018, UK exports to the EU were £289 billion (46% of all UK exports). UK imports from the EU were £345 billion (54% of all UK imports).
-The share of UK exports accounted for by the EU has generally fallen over time from 55% in 2006 to 43% in 2016, though this increased slightly to 44% in 2017 and 46% in 2018.
-The share of UK imports accounted for by the EU fell from 58% in 2002 to 51% in 2011, increasing to 53% in 2018."

That took 3.8 seconds to google.

Sorry. I meant I personally don't sell much to the EU.

I negotiate legal settlements for a living. No deal is the equivalent of an offer being made and me saying that if it's not accepted, my client will walk away without a settlement. Which is bloody nonsense. My client isn't going to forego everything just because they can't get exactly what they want.

Having no deal as the UK's BATNA is ridiculous due to the chaos and harm it would unleash.

Using the negotiation analogy I meant, where is the strength in saying “ok, no deal then” and having the EU say, “ok, no food, cars, medicine, technology or skilled workers then”. It’s like being banned from a shop. In fact, asking to be banned from a shop.

The EU is very much more than just a trade deal.

No deal is the equivalent of an offer being made and me saying that if it's not accepted, my client will walk away without a settlement. Which is bloody nonsense. My client isn't going to forego everything just because they can't get exactly what they want

But in your analogy the option of walking away is still there.

This is the equivalent of an offer being made and even if it isn't anything your client wants he is forced to accept.

Why would the other side offer anything other than what they want to offer if they know your client has no where else to go.

Your still angry after 6 months ago? You don't even know them

Yes, a No Deal will hurt the EU. It would hurt them far more to give up any of their fundamental freedoms for the UK, because that would destroy any benefit in being part of the Union. The UK has already been allowed to pick and choose a great deal more than any other country.

So from the EU's point of view a No Deal is more painful than a negotiated settlement, but less painful than seeing the EU fall apart because the UK wants to have their cake and eat it.

And, of course, it is going to hurt the UK far more than the EU.

It islike being banned from a shop

A shop that stocks it's shelves with 46% of your goods

And you buy 54% of their total sales.

The EU aren’t selling us anything.

Of course they are.

They sell more to us than we sell to them.

We pay billions to them to "buy in" to their club, the EU.

They benefit more by us being members than we do.

But in your analogy the option of walking away is still there.

No, it's not. You have a comprehension problem. I'm saying it's not considered as they'd lose everything / get nothing.

And yes, actually, sometimes they're advised that they have to take the offer or potentially find a new solicitor as we're there to advise them and if they don't take our advice we can't carry on acting as there's a conflict / breach of terms.

Clients can't always get what they want, if what they want is pie in the sky. And no client will just say 'fuck it' and walk away as they'd get nothing rather than something. Hence walking away NOT being part of my analogy.

NoWordForFluffy are we talking about divorce?

Yes if one of your clients walked away they would get nothing but sometimes it is cheaper than haggling over every little piece of furniture.

Dp works with a guy who has thrown the towel in and walked away because the legal bills are going to be more than 50% of everything.

His ex wants to take him to court because he asked for the sofa.
He can buy a new sofa for the amount a solicitor will charge .

Walking away with nothing does have its advantages.

If he was forced to negotiate on every single item he would be bankrupt

Nope, not divorce.

If it is not divorce then either it is criminal or business .

Criminal, and the analogy of walking away/going to full trial as opposed to being forced to take the deal

Business, unless there are only 2 businesses in the field then the threat of walking away and going to a competitor is there whether you see it or not.

Yes there is haggling and not getting everything you want but without the ability to walk away whether it is the right of wrong thing to do you are in a position that you could end up with nothing you actually want

Or...

Tesco: We'll give you £200 for falling over that banana skin
Client: No deal! £2million or i walk away!
Tesco: Er, walk away it is then

Yeah, I deal with complex injury cases. I try to explain to the client that negotiation is like a Venn diagram. We have a valuation bracket, the other side has a valuation bracket and hopefully the brackets have some element of crossover so we can settle without going to Court.

Ultimately these clients don't have walking away as an option as only they lose. And while the EU will feel an impact (in my analogy the other side would still have to pay their legal costs), it's nowhere near the impact that my client (or the U.K.) will feel from walking away.

It's a ridiculous negotiating tool in this instance. Both parties need to have almost-equal levels of impact for a walk away threat to work.

I really don't get the argument that the EU loses more by the UK leaving without a deal than the UK loses. Yes, I expect the multiple countries in the EU sell more goods to us than we do to them, because there are lots of EU countries with stuff to sell. I don't see why that means they will miss us more than we will miss them. They will be losing 1 free trade partner, we will be losing 27, and just as the UK is convinced it could find other markets to flog its goods and services to if it left the EU without a deal, that WTO terms are perfectly good, and that it could find other markets to buy what it needs, the same applies to all those EU countries currently selling to and buying from the UK, surely? What has the UK got to offer that is so much more significant than what the EU offers us?

If we do it, then the other countries who are desperate to leave will also exit. Bye bye EU.

Is there anything in particular about Brexit so far, that you think is selling it to other countries?
Last polls I saw, the unholy spectacle we've made of ourselves had caused EU-leaving enthusiasm to plummet across the nations.

I agree its not pretty. But we will have set a precedent. I am responding to the idea that the EU has little to lose with our leaving.