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Brexit

Westminstenders: Game On?

975 replies

RedToothBrush · 29/08/2019 21:35

Johnson has had prorogation approved by the Queen.

There has been widespread outrage and horror both in the UK and in Europe. Johnson has ripped up the principle of Liberal democracy even if constitutionally what he has done is legal. In shredding convention and the 'gentlemans agreement' of understanding we teeter on the edge of democratic collapse.

Talk is tha Dominic Cummings is persuing a game theory principle of deliberately putting us on collision course with the EU. The idea being that they will blink first because the alternative of what will happen is just too awful for them to allow. The idea is to force others to make the moves whilst Johnson appears principled and strong, even without a proper strategy and plan for a deal.

And there is the rub. Despite all the Talk of no deal, at some point a deal MUST be made, regardless of whether its before or after 31st October. There is no sense of what that could be and how it could be done. And then there's the prospect of a US deal which suffers from the same lack of tangibility.

All there is, is how things look for a General Election. Nothing else.

Johnson is pitching for an election with no sense of what's needed for Brexit - including the legislation needed for no deal. Not to forget that Cummings, strategist that he is, apparently isn't here for the long haul, only being contracted until 31st October, when he goes for surgery he postponed to take on this job.

So what's the plan for Johnson Post Cummings? Or is he going to do even more 'winging it'.

Meanwhile there's an awful lot of moderate Tory MPs getting very nervous and already failing to stick to the Cummings script.

Johnson, until there is an election is going to firmly blow hot and cool, trying to play to the hopes and fears of leavers and remainers to keep them hanging on to hope and the notion that x or y will happen, when x and y can't possibly both happen because they are completely opposing strategies. Hope leads us blindly to stumble like fools into his trap and to win his reelection.

Next week looks very bumpy indeed. Chances are this thread won't make it past Saturday...

OP posts:
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Wenttoseainasieve · 30/08/2019 03:06

I'd expect a 'number 10 staffer' to have a better grasp of grammar than whoever is running that account TBH.

Wenttoseainasieve · 30/08/2019 03:11

...unless it's the cat Grin

borntobequiet · 30/08/2019 05:43

PMK
Gordon Brown when young was actually v attractive with a nice smile - unsettling as looked just like my Dad at that age. I actually think they must be distantly related (family is part Scottish).

Sostenueto · 30/08/2019 05:55

berkow Grin

NoWordForFluffy · 30/08/2019 06:25

The turning down of the request to meet the Queen is nothing to do with posh or not posh. Her advisors have told her not to agree as her role is to take advice from her Prime Minister, not the LotO.

There is no convention which says she has to agree.

I'd think it's her way of doing what convention says (consenting to the PM's request) and not getting politically embroiled in the argument. As is the Queen's way.

BigChocFrenzy · 30/08/2019 07:04

No. 10 leaker - if genuine - claims to be disguising style & spelling

Let's see if what is leaked pans out

BigChocFrenzy · 30/08/2019 07:07

"What kind of idiot brings about a no deal brexit in October when they have, themselves, an operation scheduled for November"

Do you really think Cummings, anyone else in govt or even the top 1% will be affected by any shortages ? Hmm

Shortages will be for the plebs who can't go abroad for ops, meds or goodies

BigChocFrenzy · 30/08/2019 07:11

BBC Newsnight@BBCNewsnight

Tom Harwood from Guido Fawkes predicts there will be a “stonking Tory majority” after a general election

====
Lewis Goodall@lewis_goodall

From where?

Scottish seats= ⬇️
South West Lib Dem facing seats= ⬇️

So apparently this “stonking” majority has to come from Labour leave seats. Scores and scores of them.

Remind me where we heard that before?

BigChocFrenzy · 30/08/2019 07:16

Classic application of game theory to the game of chicken: thrown the steering wheel out of the window

John Rentoul@JohnRentoul

The Johnson-Cummings tactic of ploughing ahead for no-deal Brexit reminds @TomChivers^ of something^

Westminstenders: Game On?
BigChocFrenzy · 30/08/2019 07:23

Why Cummings has got the chicken game wrong - if his opponent is the EU. But is it ?

https://unherd.com/2019/08/dominic-cummings-is-no-chicken/

The reason the ostentatious removal of the steering wheel works in chicken is because you have one clearly defined opponent of a similar stature to you.

If you’re both driving Vauxhall Zafiras, then the crash will be equally bad for both of you.
....
if it’s the EU, then it’s not two Vauxhall Zafiras.

It’s more like a Fiat Cinquecento driving towards an oncoming train.

A no-deal Brexit will hurt the EU, but much less than it would hurt Britain, because the EU is much bigger than Britain.

And there are worse outcomes for the EU, such as other countries seeing that they blinked first and trying similar strategies to get favourable deals from them.
It may be that no-deal is the least bad option available for them if Britain commits to it.

Motheroffourdragons · 30/08/2019 07:23

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

QueenOfThorns · 30/08/2019 07:38

The analogy of the Fiat Cinquecento vs the train rings chillingly true. We’re trapped in the car and the driver is an idiot Sad

bellinisurge · 30/08/2019 07:40

Dh has a heavy day with his mum at the hospital today. He planned a nice trip for us tomorrow to a nearby market town to unwind "It has a Lidl. We could pop in and look for things to add to the stash", he said. The new definition of a nice day out.

TheElementsSong · 30/08/2019 07:42

PMK with my favourite placard from yesterday.

Westminstenders: Game On?
Hoooo · 30/08/2019 07:44

Hypothetically...
How soon could the flights and boats stop?

Hoooo · 30/08/2019 07:45

Spoke to someone yesterday who qas at a meeting last with the communities minister.
Fucking scary stuff.

wheresmymojo · 30/08/2019 07:45

Still catching up.

Rory the Tory is doing a survey here...clearly considering trying to move things back to the centre ground somehow...

Only takes 30 seconds to complete...

join.rorystewart.co.uk/survey

wheresmymojo · 30/08/2019 07:56

@Hoooo What was said?

ThereWillBeAdequateFood · 30/08/2019 08:01

^Spoke to someone yesterday who qas at a meeting last with the communities minister.
Fucking scary stuff^

Are you able to share any details hoo?

Hazardtired · 30/08/2019 08:04

hoooo don't leave us hanging! Details. Was also wondering about boats and flights. After the prorogue(sp?) was annouced I crashed coursed DP up to date and explained by the time he worked out we should leave it'll be to late.

If we go early we can get to Dublin with the dog if we go via NI....i think. Our dog can't be vaccinated (medical grounds) so can't get a pet passport I figured getting to NI might be doable with him without a passport and then its an open border into Ireland.

Haven't looked that up yet to see if it's true because I think it's highly unlikely we'll go...I just like knowing I have a vague plan to go lol.

TheMShip · 30/08/2019 08:17

This is a slight aside, but I know there are some posters here who are taking HRT and may be concerned about the scare splash headlines around the increased breast cancer risk (e.g. www.theguardian.com/science/2019/aug/29/breast-cancer-risk-from-using-hrt-is-twice-what-was-thought). The relevant statistics are quoted here from the Guardian story:

In western countries, 6.3% of women of average weight will develop breast cancer over the 20 years from the age of 50 without any hormone therapy. The study found that rose to 8.3% among women taking the most common hormonal combination – oestrogen plus daily progestogen.

The odds were better (7.7%) for women who took progestogen only intermittently, maybe for 10 to 14 days a month. Those who took oestrogen only, because they did not need progestogen to protect from womb cancer after a hysterectomy, had a risk of 6.8%.

If you struggle with percentages, try like this: Out of 50 women of average weight who are taking hormone therapy, 3 would have developed breast cancer regardless. Another 1 will develop it because of the HRT (that's where the 1 in 50 comes from in the story). And if you are taking oestrogen only, then your risk is virtually identical to if you were taking nothing.

I have access to the full publication from the Lancet - if anyone wants to read it please PM me and I will send you copy.

We now return you to your regularly scheduled Brexit panic.

PerkingFaintly · 30/08/2019 08:18

Thanks for that video by Mike Galsworthy, whoever posted it above.

(Here' s the link again: twitter.com/mikegalsworthy/status/1167192709431300096 )

I think he's spot on that Cummings is wrong about the EU swerving, but that it doesn't matter because what Cummings is really about, is carrying out his post-Brexit domestic agenda using the chaos and destruction of norms to drive through radical restructuring – using a high energy presentation and entertaining leader because people tend to flock to those in times of insecurity.

Like I said out on the other thread: the "driver" isn't in the Fiat Cinquecento. He's across town planning a bank robbery while everyone else is distracted by the car crash.

Myriade · 30/08/2019 08:22

PMK
How did you manage to fill 150 posts in one evening?

Myriade · 30/08/2019 08:25

My concern atm is that EU is going to blink first

Articles like this one make me uncomfortable
www.news18.com/news/india/eu-should-not-let-itself-be-scared-into-brexit-renegotiation-says-merkel-ally-norbert-roettgen-2289975.html
As far as I a, concerned, the EU blinking is actually the worst outcome. Both because it means the U.K. and other EU counties will know that bullying works. And because whatever the EU would give the U.K. (such as the end of the backstop) would basically be destroying the EU.

Hazardtired · 30/08/2019 08:36

Re the MG video... do we need Labour and Corbyn to focus on domestic policy and appealling to leavers via that? Which will piss remainers off and possibly completely quash any chance of cross party working with moderate tories. Also i'm not sure of Corbyn's appeal to labour leaver demographic - grandpa woke for the student vote.

We're very fucked as it's quite a pickle.

John McConnell/Emily Thornberry might be better at reaching out. ET can be very stern which has it's appeal.

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