Westminstenders: Game On?

[RedToothBrush]

Johnson has had prorogation approved by the Queen.

There has been widespread outrage and horror both in the UK and in Europe. Johnson has ripped up the principle of Liberal democracy even if constitutionally what he has done is legal. In shredding convention and the 'gentlemans agreement' of understanding we teeter on the edge of democratic collapse.

Talk is tha Dominic Cummings is persuing a game theory principle of deliberately putting us on collision course with the EU. The idea being that they will blink first because the alternative of what will happen is just too awful for them to allow. The idea is to force others to make the moves whilst Johnson appears principled and strong, even without a proper strategy and plan for a deal.

And there is the rub. Despite all the Talk of no deal, at some point a deal MUST be made, regardless of whether its before or after 31st October. There is no sense of what that could be and how it could be done. And then there's the prospect of a US deal which suffers from the same lack of tangibility.

All there is, is how things look for a General Election. Nothing else.

Johnson is pitching for an election with no sense of what's needed for Brexit - including the legislation needed for no deal. Not to forget that Cummings, strategist that he is, apparently isn't here for the long haul, only being contracted until 31st October, when he goes for surgery he postponed to take on this job.

So what's the plan for Johnson Post Cummings? Or is he going to do even more 'winging it'.

Meanwhile there's an awful lot of moderate Tory MPs getting very nervous and already failing to stick to the Cummings script.

Johnson, until there is an election is going to firmly blow hot and cool, trying to play to the hopes and fears of leavers and remainers to keep them hanging on to hope and the notion that x or y will happen, when x and y can't possibly both happen because they are completely opposing strategies. Hope leads us blindly to stumble like fools into his trap and to win his reelection.

Next week looks very bumpy indeed. Chances are this thread won't make it past Saturday...

Interesting to see that Ken Clarke has said that he's happy to support JC as interim PM. Maybe they're starting to be sensible about the best options to just stop the car crash (put the hair fire out!).

Like I said out on the other thread: the "driver" isn't in the Fiat Cinquecento. He's across town planning a bank robbery while everyone else is distracted by the car crash.

Absolutely! The idiot driver has been convinced by his puppetmasters that his bigly Fiat is so powerful that the train won’t stand a chance.

@Myriade the EU can’t ‘blink’ (I hate that term). They can’t have an open border with us by WTO rules and they can’t have a hard border because it breaks the GFA. BJ has demanded the impossible, knowing damn well that it can’t be done.

WRT the HRT story - Today prog this morning did a very good piece outlining the difference between absolute and relative risk and how people should be careful to go beyond the headines. An example of the BBC doing something well - shame they can't apply the same approach to other issues.

As far as I can make out, all the comments implying that the EU is shifting, blinking or offering concessions are coming from the UK and are either wishful thinking or more of the "Don't they know who we are?" or "It will hurt them more than it hurts us" delusions and when investigated more deeply, cone from the UK politicians and/or Brexit supporting MSM.

Damian Grammaticus was on BBC Breakfast this morning saying that the EU was still waiting for the UK to come up with proposals and had made it explicit that it was up to the UK to do so. But that if () and when it did so, the EU had said it was prepared to meet 5 days a week to consider the proposals unlike the UK Parliament which is not being allowed to meet

My concern atm is that EU is going to blink first

But can they blink? If they do it means compromising their red lines and the EU project falls to bits.

Interesting to see that Ken Clarke has said that he's happy to support JC as interim PM

Interesting, can JC get the numbers to form a government.

Good morning,
I rarely post on here but I thought I'd share this piece by Alex Andreou, as it has injected a bit of optimisim in my day.

inews.co.uk/opinion/boris-johnson-dominic-cummings-remainers-strategy-prorogation/

Also the link to the anti-prorogation petition is here, in case there is any fellow-lurker who has yet to sign

Interesting, can JC get the numbers to form a government.

Has there been a change in Swinson or Ummunas position? I havent heard of 1, please correct me if Im wrong

PMK. Can't really believe we're here.

I'll try and redact the message....

They're keeping their powder dry, from what I can tell.

Redacted message :

Robert Jenrick minister of state for local government came to the on and met with the chief executive of council. He said that in the case of a No Deal brexit then the area would be similar to one of the the ports on the south coast. There may not be enough fuel for all the that need it to carry goods. And it is likely that lorries would be piling up all round and there would be a massive congestion. wanted to plan special Road arrangements in and around * in order to try and keep traffic moving. There are likely to be petrol shortages. There was some mention of lorries I'm parked up in large numbers on the M**.

This is from someone ^ very involved in local affairs.

Tbh I'm now thinking I was right and he will cobble together a version of the WA in time for 31/10 and scared MPs will vote it through. We will then leave the EU, and he will win a majority in a nov election.

We are so fucked, my friends.

We are so fucked, my friends.

Some of us will be more fucked than others, hard not to despair really

I dreamt about Boris. I knew I'd have weird dreams. I was getting him his requested egg mayo and salad on white bread. I was trying to talk myself into eating egg mayo again but just couldn't bring myself to do it as eggs are . is always a vomit face, never envy. Weird.

Need to catch up now.

Still here. Still waiting for the Bobby Ewing moment.Thank you RTB.

Just to destroy the optimism of those people believing there will be a wider realisation that there really is a right wing coup....I really don't believe that the penny will ever drop for some people. The comments from Leavers I know include....

" I don't know what the fuss is about- the whole three years have been very difficult for MPs they deserve an extra 5 days off"
[ Yes really]
And

"The EU will force Ireland into a deal because the EU won't impose tariffs and unnecessary border controls on a country that is rule compliant anyway"

and

" Tariffs will be waived permanently by the EU. French farmers have much more to lose than we do. With the biggest ever trade deal with America, we will have huge investment and increased exports caused by the relatively weak pound."

Hopefully the penny is dropping for others ( as well as the pound).

What worried about the MG vid, Hazard and what does worry me about JC, is he is easily seduced by populist events, needs to conduct himself very carefully in planned mass strikes. Trades unions have issued statements.

Compare and contrast with JC's opposition on the other side, and how an ill educated populace will read this.

That and the fact that we see clearly which side brenda, the god fairy enforcers and the usuals are on.

And that 'following orders' is not something that many brit officials seem ot be able to cross reference with a personal moral or empathic compass even now.

I've never seen MG look so grave.

He emphasised how our strength is the breadth and locality of the hundreds of our groups in existence.

Thanks hoooo

I thought there might be traffic and petrol issues away from the ports - good to have it confirmed.

Really need to crack on with DP related prepping but I need to write everything out to check my thinking and I keep putting it off. Tough planning decisions ahead and I have no one to check my thinking. DP not really well enough for more than a bit of input and anyone close enough to understand what he needs voted leave.

woman yes yes you hit the nail on the head he is easily seduced. He gets caught up in momentums literally and figuratively.

The Queen is following constitutional norms. Which is to take advice from her PM and do as (s)he asks. She's not a political figure and doesn't get involved (even though in theory she could).

I'm pretty sure she actually doesn't agree with what's happening.

Bit of tough love from Ian Dunt; love this lad. star

@IanDunt
Really quite exhausted by the endless variations on 'Cummings is really playing a blinder at this game of 4D chess, in which he is trying to get a deal/trying to have an election/trying to ensure no-deal'.

“Cummings is trying to goad Grieve and co - he says the more they appear babbling on TV, the stronger the support in focus groups for the prime minister to end the nightmare on October 31,” says one official

The idea he is some kind of immense tactical genius is inaccurate and unhelpful. Politics is really not that complicated.

If you want to stop something, stop it. If you believe in something, fight for it. If someone's arguments are trash, then trash them.

Once upon a time this bloke made up a bunch of lies to win a yes/no referendum on the status quo, in the aftermath of a financial crash and austerity. A genius that does not make.

Setting him up as some sort of Dr Evil figure, constantly five steps ahead, is designed to make you feel powerless. Fuck all that. Just do the politics.

I agree about the EU as you posted up thread Myriad fact that they are watching so closely spurs me on.

View from a Scottish 19 year old re the monarch's role in this clusterfuck:

It should be in the next White Paper that we're not just declaring our independence from the UK but also our independence from our undemocratic waste of space monarchy that does no good for us

For context, the (detailed ) White Paper in the run up to the Indyref (fancy that? ) had proposed continuing with the monarchy. The Queen after all is Queen of Scots (although supposedly the people remain sovereign: I think that's part of the prorogation case before the Court of Session ) as well as Queen of England. Technically she should be referred to as Elizabeth the 1st and 2nd (In the same way that King James is referred to at least by Scots as the 1st and 6th )

.

@woman19 the Queen is not on any side, she is remaining neutral, as is her role. The way they’ve arranged the prorogation means that her hands are tied. Trying to suggest that she’s on a ‘side’ is just creating the appearance of further divisions and doesn’t help our cause at all.

I remembered incorrectly. It was the sovereignty of the Scots Parliament that was referred to

After the QC quoted the Claim of Right from 1689 - which asserted the sovereignty of the old Scots parliament - Lord Doherty asked if there was a more recent precedent.
Mr O'Neill said there was none that matched the gravity of the present situation.

(from the BBC article)

Senior DUP sources suggesting they have been advised by senior Conservatives that they intend to call an election in November.

I thought that he still either had to get a 2/3 agreement in Parliament or lose a Confidence vote and then have two weeks to try to find an alternative. So it's not entirely in his hands. I think things are now getting out of BlowJob's control - I don't think they expected the mass protests. I imagine they thought it would be a bit of noise like the Faragists make.

If you want to stop something, stop it. If you believe in something, fight for it. If someone's arguments are trash, then trash them.

Fully agree with this.

What time does the Scottish judge announce his decision? I hope he decides the way I want him to!